Weekend Soccer – By Chris.
The Premiership
Birmingham - Liverpool 2.88 - 2.71
Seems like Liverpool will decide which sides will
follow Derby to the Championship. Last week the
Liverpool reserves probably got Fulham relegated by
winning 2-0 at Craven Cottage. One thing is
absolutely certain, Liverpool will field an
understrength side again. Will they be able to
defeat a desperate Birmingham side as well? I do not
think so, but then again I backed Fulham last week
and I had a hard time understanding the Fulham
failure.
Birmingham 2
Liverpool 2
A week ago I would have been more confident in
backing Birmingham but their humiliating 1-5 loss to
Villa gave me all the wrong signals ahead of this
encounter with Liverpool. To but it bluntly the
Birmingham defence is not up to Premiership
standard. Birmingham are confident that their winger
Larsson will be back for this match, but D Johnson
is not yet available. A highly motivated home side
up against the Liverpool second choices, my pick has
to be the home win (2.88). I am not impressed by the
odds. Last week the Fulham home win was priced 4.00!
Chelsea - Manchester Utd 2.55 -
3.15
I will back the home win at decent odds, considering
the Chelsea home strength. Chelsea will have M
Essien back tomorrow but F Lampard will not be
involved. Vidic is the main worry in the United
camp. Both sides achieved away draws in their
Champions League semi finals. Chelsea were plain
lucky at Anfield, but United looked pretty safe in
Barcelona. Not that United played a particularly
strong game but Barca just could not penetrate their
defence, despite the absence of Vidic. I guess that
we can expect another defensive game from
United. They do not have to win this match. The onus
is on Chelsea. Home win will be my choice (2.55). If
I see it correctly Chelsea will win this top of the
table clash, but will fail against Liverpool in a
few days.
Chelsea 2 Man Utd
1
Manchester City - Fulham 1.94 - 4.33
Surprisingly open game between City and Portsmouth
last week. City won the match 3-1 but it could
easily have ended in a 4-4 draw. Fun game to watch.
City played with a make shift defence as Dunne had
to leave the match with an injury. Elano and young S
Williamson played in defence in the second half. M
Richards, Onuoha, Garrido and probably also R Dunne
will be missing again, but at least S Jihai should
be back. Before Christmas City relied on Dunne and
Richards, but now both are out.
Poor goal keeping gifted Liverpool their 2-0 win
against Fulham. K Keller was not at his best, but at
the same time Fulham could only create half chances
during the 90 minutes. First choice keeper A Niemi
should be back for this match. The choice is easy
for Fulham. They absolutely have to win this match,
or else they can start preparing for the
Championship. Stronger City offence than defence at
the moment and I look forward to an open game. A
draw is no good to Fulham and this is a typical win
or lose match. Maybe the superior Fulham motivation
will make me supporting the away win (4.33).
Man City 2 Fulham 3
Sunderland - Middlesbrough 2.35 -
3.60
Both these north east teams are on thirty six points
and could use some additional points to be safe.
They are pretty safe as it is, but with three more
rounds to play Bolton and Birmingham may still
threaten the two clubs. Sunderland lost two key
defenders, P Bardsley and J Evans, to injuries last
week and it does not look good for the duo ahead of
this match either. Only Evans has a 50/50 chance of
playing. Middlesbrough will once again be without
the suspended midfielder G O'Neill. Is a draw a very
useful result for both these clubs? I think so
(3.20).
Sunderland 2
Middlesbrough 2
Tottenham - Bolton 1.91 - 4.52
Classic fixture between a talented, quite superior
home side, wanting in motivation, against a hard
working, 100% committed away side, lacking in
quality. Bolton have won their last two league
games, both 1-0, but I cannot imagine that they will
able to prevent Tottenham from scoring tomorrow.
Bolton rode their luck in the first half against
Middlebrough last week but offered a stronger second
half. They will once again be without their target
player K Davies, but they have J O'Brien back in
contention. J Woodgate, P Robinson and P Chimbonda
will be back for Spurs. I opposed Tottenham in their
last home game. They played against Middlesbrough
and the odds on the away were 5.70. The match ended
in a 1-1 draw. I prefer the home win this time
(1.91).
Tottenham 1
Bolton 1
West Ham - Newcastle 2.58 - 2.88
I suggest that the positive Newcastle run will go
on. With Emre, J Milner, S Carr and Cacapa back in
contention Newcastle have a fully fit squad ahead of
this match. However it is unlikely that Keegan will
make any changes in his starting line up. West Ham
defeated Derby at the weekend, but they were not at
all convincing. When Derby equalised in the second
half they looked like they would go on to win the
match. W Ham striker D Ashton will be back for this
match, competing with C Cole, B Zamora and F Sears
for a starting role. W Ham hope that one or two of J
Spector, M Upson and A Ferdinand will recover in
time for this match. All are major doubts. Backing
Newcastle! (2.88).
West Ham 2
Newcastle 2
Wigan - Reading 2.10 - 2.65
Following the form barometer there could only be one
winner in this match and that is Wigan. While Wigan
have picked up their game these last couple of
months Reading have gone the other way. Wigan have
been especially strong at home with 4-2-0 in their
last six home fixtures.
There were many changes in the Reading line up last
week against Arsenal and coach Coppell also tried
some new kind of defensive system. It did work out
at all and at the moment it looks like Coppell does
not really know what he is doing. S Hunt and N
Shorey will be recalled for this match and also L
Lita could feature. Home win for Wigan (2.10).
Wigan 0 Reading 0
Everton - Aston Villa 2.31 - 3.35
The home side fails to excite me right now. Not much
is happening offensively at the moment. Yakubu and
Andy Johnson are not in form and without T Cahill
and Arteta they have no really creative players on
the pitch. Latest news indicate that Arteta could
possibly be back for this match and L Osman most
certainly. Villa have scored fifteen goals in their
last three games and although their opponents have
been poor you do not score fifteen goals just like
that in the Premiership. Villa are quite simply in
top form. My choice will be the away win (3.35).
Everton 2 Aston
Villa 2
Portsmouth - Blackburn 2.25 - 3.53
Uncharacteristic defensive mistakes from the
Portsmouth defence last week. Maybe they are already
looking forward to the FA Cup final. Down to ten men
they went forward against Man City and they created
several outstanding scoring possibilities, including
two shots which hit the wood work. Pompey will be
without the suspended defender Hreidarsson this
weekend. Lauren could play again in defence. Kanu
was rested last week, but he will return tomorrow.
I thought that Blackburn were the stronger side in
the first half last week at home to Man United but
in the second half it was a match between United and
the fantastic Blackburn keeper Friedel. Over the 90
minutes it was the best Blackburn display in ages.
Maybe Blackburn are the hotter side at the moment,
but they will only manage a draw (3.25).
Portsmouth 0 Blackburn 1
Derby - Arsenal 12.00 - 1.28
Arsenal went about their football the way they
normally do last week against Reading. Fully
motivated? Maybe not, because if they had been fully
motivated they would have scored five or six against
Reading. Then again Arsenal have been known to miss
some scoring chances this season. Diaby has suffered
an injury and he will be out for some considerable
time. A Hleb is out, suspended. Likely away win,
but who needs this price! (1.28).
Serie A
Fiorentina - Sampdoria 2.08 - 4.50
Frey, the Fiorentina keeper, was their best player
last week when they defeated Palermo 1-0. In other
words Fiorentina were able to preserve their four
point cushion over Milan (and Sampdoria).
The attractive odds on the home win has of course a
lot to do with their midweek UEFA Cup game with
Glasgow Rangers (0-0). Two big games per week is
often too much for Italian sides. Fiorentina will be
without the suspended striker Pazzini on Sunday.
Sampdoria won 3-0 against their hot rivals Udinese at
the weekend and they look pretty certain to reach
Europe next season. I am talking about UEFA Cup
participation but at this instant they have pretty
much the same chance of reaching the Champions
League as Milan. If they should lose this match
against Fiorentina however, they are out of the
Champions League race. This is a massive game and
Sampdoria come more or less full strength. At the
end of the day I find the best value on the home win
(2.08).
Fiorentina 2 Sampdoria 2
Genoa - Empoli 2.15 - 4.18
Once again, very tempting odds on the home win
(2.15). Genoa are in terrific form and they have no
major worries ahead of this match. They will be
without the suspended Bovo and De Rosa. Milanetto is
a certain starter this time.
Empoli are one of the three teams on thirty points,
all going down at the moment, and they must get
something from this fixture and the remaining three
as well. Unfortunately they will be without three
suspended players, Saudati, Marchisio and Raggi. One
striker, Saudati, is suspended and Pozzi, also
striker, is still on the injury list. Coach Cagni is
planning to use a 4-4-2 formation with Vannucchi and
Giovinco up front. Better value on the home win
(2.15).
Genoa 0 Empoli 1
Inter - Cagliari 1.32 - 14.52
Torino dominated against Inter last week, but like
true champions Inter scored the only goal of the
game. They did not offer much offensively but full
points for their defensive display. Same Inter squad
is expected for this match, plus the returning
Vieira. Cagliari have to do without Parola, Pisano,
Fini and Foggia, but welcome back Cossu and Canini.
Cagliari will be slightly weakened weakened in
other words. They look pretty safe on thirty five
points and they have more winnable games than this
one these coming weeks. My conclusion is that Inter
look like sound winners (1.32) Still under-priced in
my view.
Inter 2 Cagliari
1
Juventus - Lazio 1.41 - 12.00
Chiellini, Sissoko and Zebina will all return for
the home side, but their striker Iaquinta remains on
the sidelines. I thought that Juve would relax now
that they have qualified for the Champions League,
but I was obviously wrong. They are after the second
spot. Lazio looked unmotivated last week at Catania.
They lost the match 0-1, but they were never even
close. This weekend Lazio will be missing the
suspended Dabo, Ledesma and Zauri. Behrami will
probably not recover in time. Likely home win, but
the odds (1.41) you can do without.
Juventus 5 Lazio
2
Livorno - Milan 7.76 - 1.60
They say that it was a fantastic shot from Diamanti
that made the Livorno draw with Roma possible. It
was a big point for Livorno, no doubt about that,
but in my eyes they will not be able to preserve
their Serie A status. Yes, they will lose this match
(1.60). The Livorno squad is almost intact with only
Vidigal and Volpe out of this match.
Milan have their fittest squad for ages. Oddo and
Jankulowski are back in contention, Ambrosini and
Bonera return from their suspensions and their only
absentees are Maldini and Dida. Milan will pass the
ball around with confidence as usual and they are
bound to score some two-three goals in the process.
Away win (1.60).
Livorno 1 Milan 4
Napoli - Siena 2.04 - 5.50
Nothing at stake here, but I like the odds on the
home win (2.04). Napoli are 10-3-4 at home and they
will be able to field a strong starting line up on
Sunday, only missing the suspended Gargano and Blasi.
Not that Siena have any worries either. Only some
motivation problems. In my opinion they are safe on
38 points. Home win! (2.04).
Napoli 0 Siena 0
Palermo - Atalanta 2.00 - 4.75
The hottest Palermo player, hottest on the market I
mean, Amauri, will be suspended this weekend. Also
Bresciano and Rinaudo are out suspended, but
Barzagli will be back from his suspension. It looks
like both Cavani and Miccoli will be OK. Cavani will
be their lone striker, backed up by young Di Matteo,
Jankovic and Simplicio (or Miccoli)
The important Doni will be back for Atalanta,
Talamonti as well, but both Langella and Carozzieri
will be missing. Mid table encounter this one and
the points will go to the most committed side. It is
easy to oppose Atalanta when Doni is absent, as in
Napoli two weeks ago. And now Palermo are without
their leading striker Amauri! Should be an open
match. No need for any of these sides to play a
cautious game. OK, three suggestions - 3-2, 3-3 or
2-3!
Palermo 0 Atalanta 0
Reggina - Parma 1.90 - 5.40
As Parma will be without five suspended players (
Gasbarroni, Falcone, Mariga, Castellini and Couto) I
expect half the betting world to back Reggina this
weekend. I am not saying that it is all wrong, but
the trouble is that Reggina are a poor side and poor
football sides can seldom be relied upon. Parma will
also be without their injured strikers Budan and
Corradi. We will probably see C Lucarelli up front
together with the Brazilian Reginaldo, backed up by
Dessena. The problem with Lucarelli and Reginaldo is
their lack of fresh form. Reggina hope to include
Lanzaro again and back for sure will be their
midfielder Cascione. 1X must be expected to cover
this one.
Reggina 2 Parma 1
Roma - Torino 1.52 - 8.53
Aquliani returns to the Roma squad but Totti is out
for the season. They are six points behind Inter
after their debacle against Livorno and there is not
much excitement left. Torino are a strange side.
Once again they played some great stuff last week,
this time against the league leaders Inter. Great
stuff until they reach the penalty area, then they
have nothing more to offer. If I had not seen it
before, I would suggest that Torino are a potential
top side. Now I will only say this, they are fun to
watch with their fast passing game. Torino will be
without the suspended Corini this weekend but Recoba,
Lanna and Di Michele will be back to play. Torino
will pack the midfield, using a 4-5-1 formation with
Stellone up front. It is out of the question to back
Roma at the moment. What can I do? OK, the away win
(8.53).
Roma 4 Torino 1
Udinese - Catania 2.08 - 4.75
Attractive odds on the home win (2.08). Or have
Udinese given up on their quest for a place in
Europe next season after their recent losses against
Roma and Sampdoria, 1-3 and 0-3? Who knows really,
but 2.08 on the home win is overpriced, considering
the lousy Catania away results this season (0-6-11).
Udinese will be without the suspended Zapotocny.
Catania hope to include Colucci again, and they only
really miss Pia. Catania look like an improved side
since Zenga became their new boss, Almost safe, I
would say, but they could use a couple of more
points to be able to relax 100%. They have two more
home games to play, have they not? Home win (2.08).
Udinese 2 Catania 1
The Championship
Barnsley - Charlton 2.00 - 3.75
Backing the home win (2.00). Barnsley had no luck
last week, losing the six pointer affair to
Leicester, 0-1. Leicester had more or less only one
single scoring chance. The Hungarian striker
Ferenczi will be recalled to the Barnsley squad but
Coulson is out for the season. Campbell-Ryce will
replace the injured Devaney.
Seems like every time that I read about Charlton
this season I read something about poor attitude,
disappointing displays and so on. Two wins in their
last ten games and it does not look like coach
Pardew is doing a particularly good job. Their squad
is definitely one of the strongest in the
Championship. L Lita will not be able to play
tomorrow as he has been recalled to his mother club,
Reading. A 100% motivated Barnsley side must be
expected to win this match (2.00).
Barnsley 3 Charlton 0
Sheffield Utd - Bristol City 2.20 -
3.20
Home winner again (2.20). Seems like S U want to
show each and every one that they really should be
among the top six this season, in the play offs.
They will not make it but they have been playing
lately like they were aiming for the play offs. They
have won seven of their last ten games (7-2-1) and I
do not think that any Championship side can beat the
S United form. Down to ten men S U won 2-0 against
Hull last week. The red carded defender C Morgan
will be suspended tomorrow but they have another
defender D Geary back in contention. Bristol City
have one win in their last nine games, very poor
form in other words, but they will reach the play
offs. Supporting the home win (2.20).
Sheffield Utd 2
Bristol City 1
Norwich - Q P R 2.15 - 3.40
I suggest that Norwich will pick up some necessary
points tomorrow (2.15) to secure their future stay
in the Championship. And QPR? Well, although they
have nothing to play for, but they are hard to beat.
They are 3-4-0 in their last seven games. Norwich
will probably use the same starting line up as last
week, or D Russell will play from the start this
time. QPR will be without their striker P Agyemang
again with Balanta his replacement. F Hall or
Mancienne in defence. A committed Norwich side
should win this match (2.15).
Norwich 3 QPR 0
Burnley - Cardiff 2.25 - 3.50
Nothing at stake in this match, but you get the
feeling that Burnely will be the slightly more
motivated side (2.25). When Cardiff lost to
Scunthorpe last week they lost their last hope of
reaching the play offs. In mid week they lost to
Wolves 0-3 and it is pretty obvious that the Cardiff
players have only one incentive left this season,
winning the FA Cup final of course. It’s just a
matter of staying fit now until the big day. Coach
Jones could give a couple of fringe players some
playing time tomorrow. Burnley will probably be
unchanged. Akinbiyi and Andy Cole up front as K
Lafferty is out injured. M Duff could feature.
Burnley then! (2.25).
Burnley3 Cardiff
3
La Liga
Valencia - Osasuna 1.95 - 4.08
I expect the "we got rid of Koemann effect" to
decide this match (1.95). The unpopular Dutch coach
was sacked this week and I guess that Joaquin and
his colleagues will be most willing to show the true
capacity of this Valencia squad this weekend. The
club is under enormous pressure only two points from
the drop zone. Morientes and Moretti are out
injured, but both Silva and keeper Hildebrand should
be back to play. The trio banned by Koemann is also
back in contention. Osasuna are also drawn into the
relegation dog fight with only one point more than
Valencia. Monreal will be back for Osasuna,
replacing Corrales in defence. Only change in their
line up. Valencia to win! (1.95).
Valencia 3
Osasuna 0
Deportivo La Coruna - Barcelona 2.90 -
2.61
Supporting the home win (2.90). Deportivo are one of
the strongest sides in La Liga since the Christmas
break. Almost hard to grasp, as their squad looks
much the same as before Christmas. Well, there are
one or two new names, including the Sweish winger C
Wilhelmsson, who could not hold a starting role at
Nantes and Bolton. But he often played from the
start for Roma during his loan stint there. Coach
Lotina found this new system, 5-4-1 and it has
worked wonders for the club. La Coruna will be
without their central midfielder Sergio this time. J
Rodriguez or Tomas will replace him, joining De
Guzman. No Barragan in defence. Barcelona will be
without the suspended G Milito and Iniesta. I take
it for granted that coach Rijkaard will rest most of
his big guns with the United encounter waiting
around the corner. There will only be one hungry
team out there. Home win (2.90).
Deportivo 2
Barcelona 0
French League
Monaco - Marseille 3.10 - 2.50
My choice will definitely be Marseille away win
(2.50). Quite surprisingly Marseille lost their home
game against Lille last week (1-3). They had their
strongest squad at their disposal with for example
Valbuena on the bench. Fortunately for Marseille
Nancy only could draw their match with Le Mans and
only one point separates the two sides.
Monaco more or less secured their league status last
week by winning the derby at Nice.They have been
terribly poor in front of their own fans this year.
No home win in their last six matches. Adriano and
Pokrivac are suspended tomorrow and Piquionne,
Modesto, Menez and Bernardi are not yet fit. A
stronger and more motivated Marseille side should be
winners (2.50.) Sunday evening fixture and this bet
will hopefully save my weekend.
Monaco 2 Marseille 3
Lille - Toulouse 1.95 - 4.75
I will take a chance with the away win (4.75).
Toulouse lost to an injury time goal last week at
home to Bordeaux. Bad luck, nothing else, was
involved. They are desperate for points and they
love to play Lille, home and away. No Lille win
against Toulouse in the last eight years. 0-1, 1-1,
0-0 and 1-3 are the results of the last four Lille
vs.Toulouse fixtures. Expect Toulouse to be
unchanged. Lille have defeatd top sides Nancy and
Marseille these last two weeks and there is talk
about playing in the UEFA Cup next season. Time for
Lille to lose, in another words. I do not trust
French sides and their so called interest in the
UEFA Cup. Backing the outsider (4.75).
Lille 3 Toulouse
2
Chris.
