Weekend Soccer – By Chris.
The Premiership
Birmingham - Blackburn 2.05 - 3.85
To lose form at this stage of the season is the
worst that can happen to any team. Look at Reading
and Birmingham, their late dip will probably end in
relegation. Not being able to hold on to their 2-0
lead against Liverpool two weeks ago was a killer
blow to the Birmingham campaign and last week they
lost deservedly to Fulham. The home team, Fulham,
always tried to play some decent football while
Birmingham lacked any ideas. Anyway, all that is
history and they now face a must win game and at the
same time Reading and Fulham must not win their
matches.
Blackburn cannot match Birmingham in terms of
motivation but I guess that their strong strikers
will be scoring a goal or two. They almost always do
and there is really no hope for the Birmingham
defence. To win this match Birmingham probably need
to score three goals. Will they do it? This I doubt.
No bet.
Birmingham 4 Blackburn 1
Chelsea - Bolton 1.16 - 19.00
This will not be a classic. Chelsea will do enough
to win this match, but I expect nothing more than
that. Bolton will be quite happy losing this game by
the odd goal. Only something like a 0 -10 loss can
possibly send Bolton to the Championship. It will
not happen. Chelsea only have one interest ahead of
this match. To collect the three points. Their ever
present defender R Carvalho is an injury doubt. Why
not a 1-0 home win.
Chelsea 1 Bolton
1
Derby - Reading 6.00 - 1.62
Now finally Derby are up against a side in similar
lousy form. Reading have failed to find the net in
their last six games, and that is pretty awful.
There is no button to push and I expect another poor
display from Reading. Apart form the last 15 minutes
they were more or less outplayed by Tottenham last
week. It was the last home game of the season for
Reading and they absolutely had to win it. How do
you follow up such a display and all their other
recent no scoring affairs? By offering another inept
display, I would suggest. Have to back Derby!
(6.00).
Derby 0 Reading 4
Everton - Newcastle 1.91 - 4.80
One point is enough for Everton to be sure of UEFA
Cup football next season. Their form is indifferent
to say the least, with one win (vs Derby) in their
last eight games. Some improvements lately,
demonstrated in their 2-2 draw with A Villa. OK,
they just about were beaten by Arsenal last week,
but it was generally a dull affair. Cahill and
Arteta will be missing again and without those two
Everton can become a bit boring. Newcastle have
passed their " lazy hazy days of summer period" and
there is nothing great about their present form.
Viduka will not play. So 1X for sure.
Everton 3
Newcastle 1
Middlesbrough - Manchester City 2.15
- 3.60
This looks boring enough. The Riverside Stadium will
be emptier than usual, if that is possible, as the
stakes are ultra low. Middlesbrough can be terribly
poor when they are unfocused.
On the other side of the pitch we will find Mr.
Eriksson, coaching City for the very last time
(probably). How motivated is Sven these days? You
get the feeling that Sven is pissed off big time by
the owner Thaksin. There is probably nothing worse
than an unmotivated Boro side. X2 then.
Middlesbrough 8 Man City 1
Portsmouth - Fulham 3.60 - 2.20
Up till now it has great being involved in the
saving Fulham campaign. Up till now the odds on the
Fulham wins have been good, but this week the book
makers have all done a U - turn. I mean, who wants
to back Fulham as favourites at Fratton Park? With
Hodgson as coach Fulham have become a footballing
side. Under tremendous pressure they never deserted
their game plan against Birmingham and I sincerely
hope that they will survive in the Premiership.
Although the Pompey boss Redknapp is constantly
referring to the impending FA Cup final, I guess
that he is starting to get worried. His side has
scored one goal in their last four games and at
their fortress, Fratton Park, their last two games
have ended 0-0 (Newcastle) and 0-1 (Blackburn). His
players however, have only one big concern to take
into consideration. To stay fit and avoid injuries.
Keeper D James could be rested again. Probably the
biggest factor in favour of Fulham is fact that the
home players are not prepared to give their 100%
best in every situation. Likely away win, but
hopeless odds (2.20).
Portsmouth 0 Fulham 1
Sunderland - Arsenal 4.63 - 1.91
I will take a chance on the home win (4.33). Not
that Sunderland played a strong game at Bolton last
week, far from it. They were terribly poor and coach
Keane will demand a much improved performance in
their final home fixture. His players will obey, I
am sure, but then it is of course another question
if they will be strong enough to defeat the Gunners.
I recall when Arsenal welcomed Sunderland to the
Emirates Stadium. Arsenal were 3-2 winners but
Sunderland pushed Arsenal all the way.
Although Arsenal managed to defeat Everton 1-0 at
the weekend, they played an uncharacteristically
poor game. Typical end of the season stuff and quite
possible that Arsenal will offer a half hearted
display again. Also quite possible that coach Wenger
will be without some of his best players again.
Hotter home team tomorrow, I hope (4.63).
Sunderland 0
Arsenal 1
Tottenham - Liverpool 2.84 - 2.75
Before I found out about the odds, I was thinking
about backing Tottenham in this match. I had
expected the odds on the home win to be on the other
side of 3.0. I was wrong of course.
Tottenham went to Reading last week without both
Berbatov and A Lennon, but I should think that they
will be back for this final game. Berbatov for sure.
The Liverpool coach Benitez never was very good at
handling indifferent fixtures like this one. He has
improved with time, I must admit, but I have my
overall doubts about the Liverpool commitment
tomorrow. At the beginning of the week the odds on
the home win were close to 2.50, but this 2.84 looks
better. Home win.
Tottenham 0 Liverpool 2
West Ham - Aston Villa 3.40 - 2.25
Dean Ashton had to leave the last West Ham fixture
at Anfield with an injury. I cannot imagine that he
will be involved in this match and offensively the
Hammers lose a lot when Ashton is not playing. A
Ferdinand and M Upson could possibly be ready for
some action, but that is what they have been saying
for some weeks now.
A bit of a mild shock for this writer that Villa
could not take advantage of their excellent position
last week. Win against Wigan and you will pass
Everton in the table. That is how I looked upon
their league round last week, but Villa failed
miserably, losing 0-2. They can still reach the UEFA
Cup if they are winners tomorrow and at the same
time Everton should lose against Newcastle, then A
Villa be fifth in the table. This double, the
Newcastle win and the Villa win, pays something like
10/1. I will back Villa to defeat W Ham, that much I
know (2.25).
West Ham 2 Aston Villa 2
Wigan - Manchester Utd 16.40 - 1.25
Not that United will need any special help to defeat
Wigan, but in my opinion there is no disadvantage
for United tomorrow, that the Wigan coach, S Bruce,
once formed a fantastic defensive pairing for United
together with G Pallister. Coaching United during
these 6-7 years was of course Sir Alex, but he was
no Sir then. United to win (1.25).
Wigan 0 Man Utd 2
Serie A
Fiorentina - Parma 1.84 - 5.00
Last week was not good for Fiorentina. First they
lost to Rangers after a penalty shoot out. Then they
lost to Cagliari in the league and as a consequence
Milan passed them in the league table. Their best
player, Mutu, will not play any more this season. He
is suspended for the remaining two games. Pasqual
will also be suspended this weekend and Vieri is out
injured.
Parma welcome back some of their previously
suspended players, Cigarini, Paci and Gasbarroni,
but still no Couto, Corradi or Pisanu. Budan should
also be back. Parma won against Genoa last week, but
they nevertheless remain in the drop zone and they
do need something from this match. Reggina won their
first away game of the season last week and maybe it
is time for Parma to break their bad habit (0-7-11).
I have no feeling for Parma. I guess that Fiorentina
ought to win this match. The home win is over
priced (1.84).
Fiorentina 3 Parma 1
Genoa - Lazio 2.00 - 5.00
They have lost their last two games and failed to
score in both of them. I am talking about Genoa of
course. Did they face top sides? Not at all, they
lost to Empoli and Parma in the last two weeks. Both
sides that are favourites to be relegated. Poor
Genoa form, in other words.They will be without the
suspended duo Criscito and Di Vaio, but should have
their striker Leon back. Lazio have done even worse
lately and this fixture will be played by two pretty
disinterested sides.
Advantage Genoa, as Lazio played the Coppa Italia
semi final against Inter in midweek. They were 100%
focused on the cup task but lost the match 0-2.
According to reports they were plain unlucky. If I
was A Lazio supporter I would not be too
content after the cup loss, as Inter fielded a much
weakened starting line up. Maybe I will back the
home win (2.00).
Genoa 0 Lazio 2
Inter - Siena 1.14 - 26.00
Although last week I tipped Siena to win against
another top side, Juventus, I cannot see the Tuscany
based club preventing Inter from clinching the
league title on Sunday. If Siena had enjoyed the
home advantage, I would not be too sure, but in
Milan? No, thank you! Inter practically never screw
up against mediocre Serie A sides and that is why
they keep on winning the title. It is a fit Inter
squad, only really missing Ibrahimovic. In midweek
when they won against Lazio in the Cup, Inter mainly
used second string players from the start. Home win
(1.14).
Inter 2 Siena 2
Juventus - Catania 1.75 - 5.50
Juventus have absolutely nothing to play for and you
must wonder if will they recover after their below
par display at Siena last week? I very much doubt
it. I think that their season is more or less over
now. Molinaro and Iaquinta will be missing this
time.
Catania just could not set their chances last week
at home to bottom of the table colleagues Reggina.
Losing the match was harsh and a severe blow to
their relegation fight. They missed their striker
Spinesi last week and he is once again a major
doubt. Thursday night Catania played their cup semi
final against Roma (1-1). Good or bad for their
Sunday match? Bad, I would think. Catania are 0-6-12
away from home and these numbers scare me off. Maybe
the home win is the only realistic alternative
(1.75).
Juventus 1 Catania 1
Livorno - Torino 3.75 - 2.50
For this vital match Livorno will be without a whole
bunch of suspended players. Grandoni, E Fillippini,
Pasquale, A Fillippini, Balleri and Pavan will all
be missing this match. All were in action last week.
Grandoni, Balleri and Pavan, three of their four
defenders against Atalanta. Galante, another
defender, is a serious injury doubt. Not that
Livorno have much hope of survival with or without
their best players, but all these suspensions
have not made it easier for old/new coach Orsi. You
know what I have been saying for a while. Livorno
are the worst side in Serie A.
Torino are constantly underachieving, but last week
they won three points against Napoli. The win was
tremendously important, but I would not call Torino
safe yet. They could need one more point. X2! Dellafiore
returns from his suspension and we will probably see
Diana from the start this time. At the end of the
day a bet on the away win will be my move (2.50).
Livorno 0 Torino 1
Napoli - Milan 8.00 - 1.36
Now that Milan have finally landed the fourth place
in the league I take it for granted that they will
stay in that position. Meaning that Milan will win
their last two games, starting with this difficult
away fixture vs Napoli. Milan have endured so many
problems and disappointments on their journey and
for a while it looks like they were out of the race
for a place in the Champions league. Napoli are a
tough opponent, but maybe they have lost some of
their best form. They will be without the suspended
duo Santacroce and Blasi, while Milan will be
without Pirlo of the same reason. Brocchi in for
Pirlo. Jankulovski will probably replace Favalli in
the Milan defence. Likely away win, but quite
ludicrous odds (1.36).
Napoli 0 Milan 1
Palermo - Sampdoria 2.90 - 3.25
Pretty good Palermo form since they changed their
coach, with only one defeat in their last five
games. Amauri missed a penalty last week, but he
made my day by scoring two very late goals against
Lazio. Palermo come more or less full strength to
this game. Sampdoria were involved in a strange game
last week. They lost to Roma 0-3, but Roma scored
with their first shot on goal in the 75th minute. Up
till that moment Sampdoria were in complete control.
Cassano was a constant threat but Sampdoria had one
of those hopeless games. Some also say that the Roma
keeper Doni had a magnificent afternoon. This one?
Sampdoria have more to play for, but the value is on
the home win, at least in my opinion (2.90).
Palermo 0
Sampdoria 2
Reggina - Empoli 2.00 - 4.10
Empoli have won some important away games lately (vs
Torino and Genoa) and maybe they are not still out
of the race. They were unlucky last week losing to
Udinese, 0-1. Empoli hit the wood work twice and
also missed a penalty kick. Marchisio will replace
the suspended Budel and Abate will be available to
play again. Giovinco or fit again Saudati will join
Vanucchi up front.
Reggina will be without the suspended Aronica. Costa
will be his replacement. Not so long ago Reggina
were down and out but after an impressive run they
now have a three point cushion over Empoli.
Especially their home form has been great and they
are motivated rather big favourites. Too much at
stake in this match and I will skip it as a betting
object.
Reggina 2 Empoli 0
Roma - Atalanta 1.25 - 15.00
Drawing with Livorno three weeks ago, surely the
Roma players still are still haunted by that
terrible result. That match aside, Roma have done
nothing wrong, putting Inter under all kind of
pressure, but the pressure would have been more
intense if they had done their job against Livorno.
Anyway, their keeper Doni was man of the match last
week at Smpdoria. Both Doni and Tissone are injury
doubts for Atalanta and Guarente is out suspended.
Atalanta have no decent recent form and they will
not be able stop Roma from winning the match
(1.25).
Roma 2 Atalanta 1
Udinese - Cagliari 2.15 - 4.33
Two successive Udinese wins and all of a sudden they
are favourites to win a place in Europe. They need
to win this match and I tip them to do just that
(2.15). Cagliari are on 38 points and they are
beginning to look safe. Lukovic will be back for
Udinese. Aquafresca, the young Cagliari striker, has
just returned to training as well as Parola, but
Conti is out suspended. Bianco will come in for
Ferri, but no Pisano. The Cagliari home form has
prolonged their Serie A stay, but away from home
they play more like relegation candidates. Home win
and great odds (2.15).
Udinese 0
Cagliari 2
The Championship play offs - first legs.
Crystal Palace - Bristol City 1.85 -
4.75
One thing is certain. Coach Warnock has done a
fantastic job with Crystal Palace. I recall his
first, or was it the second game, in charge at home
to Watford. It was school boys against men, with
Watford comfortable winners. Now a couple of months
later, that same Palace side are definitely
stronger than Watford. Both M Lawrence and J
Scowcroft were missing at the weekend, when Palace
outclassed Burnley 5-0. Both will hopefully be back
tomorrow.
One win in their last ten games before last weeks'
3-0 win against Preston. That is how it has been
going wrong for Bristol City lately. Maybe that
convincing win against Preston will turn their tide
again. L Trundle was back on the score sheet last
week. His season has been a disappointing one, but
you never know, he could be the difference for B
City. I have Palace as winners in this first leg,
but unfortunately the odds are terribly poor (1.85).
No bet!
Crystal Palace 1 Bristol City 2
Watford - Hull 2.38 - 3.15
Backing the away win! (3.15). The present lousy
Watford form is well known by now. I think that they
have managed something like one win in their last
twelve or thirteen games. Seems like the other
Championship sides have learnt how tackle the long
ball specialists. In the Premiership they learnt
this much faster. D Henderson, one of the Watford
strikers, will miss this first leg due to a
suspension. Maybe Priskin will replace him up front
alongside Ellington.
Like C Palace, Hull have enjoyed a great 2008. They
always have goal scorers in the team (Campbell,
Folan, Windass, Fagan) and I should think that their
experienced players (Barmby, Windass, Pedersen
Okocha) will be very useful in the play offs. I do
not know if H Pedersen and Okocha will be ready for
this match, but it is not likely. They have played
from time to time, but not on a regular basis. These
oldies, they can be injury prone. Not Windass
however, he is always playing. Hull to win (3.15).
Watford 0 Hull 2
La Liga
Real Zaragoza - Real Madrid 2.20 -
3.50
This should end in a home win (2.20). OK, crowned as
league winners, Real wanted to play one more big
game this season, at home to Barcelona (4-1). But
surely their season is over now. At least that is my
stand point, but too bad that all the bookmakers
agree on this (2.20).
Zaragoza desperately need the three points and they
should be pretty confident as they have won their
last two home games. The previously suspended trio
Sergio, Zapater and Celades will all be back for
this match and Zaragoza will be able to send out
their best starting line up on Sunday. Home win
(2.20).
Real Zaragoza 2 Real Madrid 2
Real Betis - Sevilla 3.50 - 2.20
By drawing with Valladolid in midweek Betis secured
their stay in La Liga. As this game is a very hot
derby game this fact probably does not matter, the
Betis players will give 100% in order to defeat
their arch rivals. Betis have offensive worries as
three of their dominating forwards, Edu, Pavone and
Sobis are serious injury doubts. Expect one or two
of them to miss the match. Capi will be back from
his suspension.
Sevilla need the points or else they can forget
about a place in the Champions League next season.
It will be difficult anyhow, with A Madrid still
three points ahead of Sevilla. Coach Jimenez has all
his players at his disposal. Sevilla impressed
earlier this week, when they won 3-0 against top
rivals Racing Santander. Will Jimenez change things
around despite their commanding display against
Racing? Maybe fit again Keita and J Navas will play
from the start this time. My call will be the away
win (2.20).
Real Betis 0 Sevilla 2
French League
Monaco - Auxerre 2.50 - 2.60 - 4.00
Looking at the league table I suspect that these two
struggling sides will be happy playing out a draw
tomorrow (2.60). In Italy I would be 100% certain,
but I am sure that they can be intelligent in France
as well. Monaco continue to be missing some injured
regulars like Piquionne, Gapke and Almiron. Auxerre
have no major worries worth mentioning, with both
Grichting and Tams fit to play.This game has nothing
to do with absent or injured players. The draw
should be a very convenient result (2.60).
Monaco 3 Auxerre
0
Le Mans - Marseille 3.55 - 2.20
The home win is certainly overpriced (3.55). Le Mans
are on a healthy run and they are definitely strong
enough to be favoúrites at home to Marseille. The
away side has so much more to play for? Sure, but Le
Mans have played like a very motivated side lately.
Both Calve and Yebda are once again serious doubts
and Le Mans will most likely field the same starting
line up as last week.
D Cisse is out, suspended and Valbuena will line up
instead alongside Niang in the Marseille offence.
Marseille were 1-0 up at home to Bordeaux last week,
but they had nothing to offer in the second half and
were deservedly beaten, 1-2. Quite simply a
disappointing second half display from Marseille. I
will back the home win (3.55). If I am wrong there
is always the over bet in this match to save the
day. I expect goals.
Le
Mans 0 Marseille 0
Metz - Lorient 2.90 - 2.75
Quite uninteresting affair in general and it will
not be more attractive tomorrow, as the match will
be played without spectators. Advantage Lorient, I
would say (2.75). Both Namouchi and Le Pen will make
their comebacks for the away side. Le Pen will join
Saifi in the front line. Morel will be replaced by
Cantareil in defence. Metz have lost two of their
starters from last week. Their striker C Chapuis and
defender C Gueye are out, injured. Another defender
Bassong will have a test, but E Cubilier should be
back. Metz are 27 points behind Lorient in the table
and they have no fans to support them this time.
Away win (2.75).
Metz 1 Lorient 2
Bordeaux - Sochaux 1.45 - 8.50
Important offensive players will be missing for the
home side. Micoud, A Alonso and Cavenaghi will not
be able to play tomorrow. David Bellion (once M
United and Sunderland) will probably start up front
together with Chamakh, supported by among others
Obertan and the returning Fernando. Sochaux have
been involved in the relegation dog fight all season
long. They are still not safe and an additional
point could be needed. The reason that they will
probably stay up is their strength away from home
this season. They are 7-5-6 away from home, pretty
exceptional, as only Lyon and Bordeaux have managed
more away wins. Leading striker Erding could be back
tomorrow. The odds on the away win are very tempting
(8.50). A more realistic bet is something on the
Asian market.
Bordeaux 2
Sochaux 0
Chris.
