Golf.
Madeira Island Open Not a great depth of talent on this European/Challenge Tour co-sanctioned event. The course is situated on top of a mountain, is short by modern standards, very hilly and is very exposed to the Atlantic winds. By any standards it is one of the tours more unusual venues and as such course form is very important. Players who have played well here before often return and repeat good results. This week the weather looks like making things very difficult. The forecast is for very windy conditions for all 4 days and especially on Thursday. The wind is expected to be gusting to over 50 mph all day and that could be enough to suspend play. At that level it is hard to keep the balls from blowing around on the greens, unless they leave the grass much longer than normal. Of course the longer the grass, the easier it makes the putting, so this weeks winner looks being a player who knows the course, can handle windy conditions, and one who might well get away with being a poor putter in ‘normal’ conditions. This event could well be shortened to 3 days if the forecast winds do materialise and I expect the winner will be hard to pick and a big price, so keep the stakes small. 1 point e/w John Bickerton @ 33/1 generally available lost 2 points Bickerton loves this course. In 9 appearances he has 7 top 20’s and 3 top 5 finishes. That counts for a lot on this ‘horses for courses’ track. He is short hitting, but accurate which will help in the windy conditions and not a great putter, but he may get away with it this week. He won last years Open de Canarias on a very similar course and as he was 4th in his last event (Malaysian Open), he has current and course form to recommend his chances. 0.5 point e/w Carl Suneson @ 200/1with SportingOdds lost 1 point Worth taking a small punt on a former course expert who lost his game (and his tour card) but came back at the end of last year to win the Challenge Tour Grand Final (in windy conditions). He is a native of the Canary Islands and will be at home on this type of wind swept course. He finished 5th in 1997 and 6th in 1998 and he could spring a surprise in conditions that will not suit many in the field. 0.5 point e/w Marcus Brier @ 125/1 Ladbrokes, Skybet, SportingOdds lost 1 point Another short hitter who has enjoyed some of his best results on this quirky course, 7th in 2000 and 2004. He was heading for another high finish last year but blew it with a final round 77 which dropped him to 32nd. Regarded as a good player in windy conditions, he could thrive on a favoured track. 4 points Dredge to beat Fasth @ evens with Ladbrokes lost 4 points Both course winners but Fasth has not been back here for some time. Dredges has more recent form winning in 2003 (shot a round of 60!) and 14th in 2004. Dredge has not played much in 2006 (two top 25’s in the Middle East Swing) but it is Fasth’s form that swings the bet. He started the season looking like a player on the way back, but his game went right off the boil at the WGC Matchplay followed by a missed cut in Singapore. If he has a problem with his game, playing in the fierce winds here will not help, and he looks worth opposing. Players Championship. It looks like a breezy few days coming up in Florida and there should be rain from lunch time on Thursday, so the early starters on day 1 should get the best conditions of the weekend. The Sawgrass course puts a premium on accuracy and with a decent breeze blowing expect the scoring to be high. Last year saw old timer Fred Funk win this and his great strength is just hitting straight, and that looks a good guide as to who could go well this week. That rules out the most short priced golfers on the betting list, Woods, Singh, Mickelson, Els and Goosen. All are just too wild off the tee and none are at anything like the peak of their game. That leaves Donald as the best value of the fancied runners, with his short but tidy game. He was runner up last year and finally won a full 4 round PGA event 2 weeks ago. However he has got a lunch time tee off time on day 1 and will get the worst of the weather. If he scores well on Thursday, it might be a better time to back him then. Jim Furyk is another player famed for hitting it straight and he has a good early tee time but he is not a regular winner. However he should be good enough to beat Sergio Garcia who continues to suffer with a cold putter and the occasional wild shot that can turn his good rounds into poor ones. Garcia has a pretty poor record here, he was 4th in 2002 but apart from that his finishing positions have been mc/50/mc/53/32. 5 points Furyk to beat Garcia @ 10/11 with Ladbrokes. won 4.54 points Padraig Harrington loves the course, it holds no fears for him and it shows with back to back runner up spots in 2003 and 2004. Last year he only just made the cut but his mind was elsewhere due to a family bereavement. He plays his best golf in the States and he is very happy that the wind is going to blow this week, he sees that as a major plus for him. He looks great value to beat Tiger Woods who looks sure to be caught out by his terrible game off the tee. He won here in 2001 and was runner up in 2000, but outside of those two results, Sawgrass has not been a happy hunting ground for the Worlds Number1. Just one other top 10 and a miserable 53rd last year. Corals match bets are fun this year and they look to have offered up a real tempter with this one. 6 points Harrington to beat Woods @ 11/5 with Corals. lost 6 points On a similar theme, Robert Allenby will be suited by the windy conditions and an early RD1 tee time. Coral match him with Phil Mickelson who is also wild off the tee and is not very happy on this course, 8th in ’99 and 3rd in 2004 are his only top 25 finishes at Sawgrass and his game is nowhere near what is was in 2004. He is overweight and does not look fully interested in golf just now. Allenby won an incredible 3 titles on the trot in Australia over Christmas – New Year and showed that he is getting back to his best with a 4th place finish last week. 4 points Allenby to beat Mickelson @ 11/8 with Corals. lost 4 points |
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