Golf - Volvo Masters, Valderrama. The end of season cash fest for the top 60 on the European money list, plus four sponsors invitations, Paul McGinley, Sandy Lyle, Alex Cejka and Ronan Rafferty. However there is no Els, Westwood or Cabrera along with the various Aussies and South Africans in the top 60, so we end up with a field of 55. There is no cut. Sergio Garcia heads the betting again and again you have say he represents poor value at 8/1, despite a great course record. Last week he went off the 5/1 favourite, played beautiful golf from tee to green, but once he got the putter out, he was just a mere mortal. He created many chances but he could not convert opportunities into actual birdies. He will always find someone ahead of him until he can become a better putter. Valderrama is a very tough course that demands accuracy rather than power. Birdies are hard to come by and good steady play pays dividends. Keeping double bogies off your card is crucial. We are looking for a player who’s game is based on accuracy and who can grind out pars, and avoid losing his head when the inevitable bogies crop up. 1 point e/w Ian Poulter @ 16/1 generally available. lost 2 points Ranked 4th for driving accuracy, 7th for greens in regulation and a solid 28th of putts per GIR, Poulter definitely has the game for the course. Not surprisingly he has a very good course record, finishing in the top 10 here for the last four years, including a win in 2004. His current form is good despite missing the cut in the Dunhill Links Championship, were his record has not been that impressive over the years. Before that he was runner up in the British Masters and had a couple of top 10 finishes in America. Not a huge price, but he has every chance this weekend. 1 point e/w Niclas Fasth @ 20/1 with VCBet lost 2 points A more back able price this week and another player with a good course record, 7th and 5th in his last two appearances in this event. He was only T27 last week, but that was due to a terrible 9 over par 3rd round. Outside of that he played as well as anyone. It is a worry that he can ‘blow up’ now and then, but hopefully he will have learnt a lesson in Mallorca, realising he let a winning chance slip away. 1 point e/w Robert Jan Derksen @ 10/1 top central European with VCBet lost 2 points Giving Derksen another chance this week. He did little wrong in Mallorca, two great opening rounds but was overtaken by a very impressive Bourdy and an inspired Little. His accuracy will be an asset on this course and despite a poor course record, he might just be able to win this group of 11 players. Only Bourdy was ahead of him last week and the Frenchman is likely to have a bit of mental let down after his debut win. 4 points Alister Forsyth to beat Miguel Angel Jimenez @ 10/11 with Ladbrokes lost 4 points Jimenez has plenty of experience of the course but he has struggled on it. He was second in the AMEX WGC event back in 1999, but out side of that he has not finished in the top 20 in his last seven events here. His form this season is been reasonable but he is not getting any younger and is not the force of old. Forsyth’s recent form is something of a puzzle, 3/18/2/mc/mc/mc/4, but his golf in Mallorca last week last week was very good and, ranked 11th for shot accuracy, this is a course that will suit him. He finished 3rd here on his last visit in 2004 and is 2-1 up on Jimenez on course form. His 47th place finish in 2003 was largely the result of a horrible opening round of 82! Hopefully he can avoid a repeat of that and a top 20 finish looks well within his capabilities. Adding: 5 points Martin Kaymer to beat Andres Romero @ 2.03 with Unibet (tie no bet) won 5.15 points Kaymer is new to this event but he looks to have a game much more suited to the course than Romero. Both are exciting young pros with bright futures, but Romero's game might well get him into trouble on this tight course. The Argentinean is ranked a worrying 184th for driving accuracy and a modest 65th for GIR, leaving him ranked 136th for shot accuracy. His saving grace is his putting ranked 1st for putts per GIR. On this course his lack of accuracy will get him into trouble and he could be needing to putt like a god just avoid double bogies. It is notable that Romero finished a distant last here last year on 25 over par. I doubt he will be looking forward to returning. Kaymer is a very fine driver, long and pretty straight with decent GIR stat (shot accuracy rank 48). He is not a good putter and that is what will hold him back from winning a lot of tournaments, but his current form is much better than Romero and to shoot an opening round 61 on a tricky course last week shows just what he can do. |
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