Golf. Welsh Open. 1 point e/w Nick Dougherty @ 28/1 VCBet, Stan James lost 2 points Not a bad price on a player in good form in an average strength field. Dougherty was going well at Wentworth last until he fell away at the end, and that on a course on which he traditionally struggles. On this Roman Road course, he had a good 12th place finish last year, and he has improved since then. 0.5 point e/w Anthony Wall @ 33/1 with BlueSq, VCBet, UKBetting lost 1 point A poor strike rate means stakes on Wall should be kept low, but he does seem to have the game to suit this short par 69 course. Great current form 2/40/33/5/6, good course form with a solid 12th last year, good GIR stats and his putting has improved, always a weak point in his game. 7 points Ian Woosnam to beat Philip Price @ 10/11 with SportingOdds. lost 7 points The battle of the old Welsh Dragons and Woosnam looks a good bet to win this one. Price went to the US to try his luck on that tour, failed and has come back in rotten form. Woosnam on the other hand is playing quite well (40/54/30/41) and will raise his game for his home Open. Ok he is well past his best, but his best was world class, Price was a good pro, nothing more. Woosnam was 5th here last year and is currently averaging nearly 2 shots a round lower than Price who has no competitive course form. Woosnam has won the last 4 H2H’s and looks a good price to make it 5. 6 points Nick Dougherty to beat Colin Montgomerie @ 10/11 with SportingOdds. lost 6 points It seems good sense to keep opposing an out of form Montgomerie. He did make the cut last week, but was nearer the bottom of the list of those that did, and that was on a course on which he has excelled on in the past. He missed the cut here last year while Dougherty was 12th. Dougherty is a better player this season, while Monty’s game has taken a nose dive. 6 points Bradley Dredge to beat Colin Mongomerie @ 10/11 with Ladbrokes, VCbet. lost 6 points This bet came up last week despite a poor start form Dredge. Like Dougherty, Dredge is not a Wentworth specialist but still beat Montgomerie who certainly is/was. On home soil Dredge looks a decent bet to beat the hopelessly out of form Montgomerie and take his seasons H2H tally over Monty to 5-0. The Memorial. Mickelson should have the game to win this, but he hasn’t played in this prestigious event for several years and has had 3 weeks off, and you never can tell what Mickelson has been up to on his time off. I suspect he puts on a false beard and enters those eating competitions they have in America. The event is usually won by a proven winner of a high quality, which makes Bart Bryant’s 250/1 victory last year all the more baffling. The course is said to be playing fast this year, with even the fairways no longer being cross cut and the nap of the grass facing the greens, to make the approach shot harder to control. 2 points win Retief Goosen @ 16/1 generally available lost 2 points The Goose excels on fast running courses and his game is in good shape (last 6 all top 25 finishes with 3 top 4 finishes), 19th at Wentworth is good for him on a course he doesn’t really like. He has played here twice, finishing 7th and 8th, so the course suits him. Must go close. 1 point e/w Lucas Glover @ 40/1 generally available. lost 2 points I am a bit of a Glover fan and think he is one of the best young prospects on the US Tour. 7 top 20 finishes this year and 8th on his course debut last year. Since then his putting has really improved, ranked 13th in putts per GIR, up from 79th last year and 152nd in 2004, no wonder he is a regular on the leader boards these days. Long of the tee and accurate with his irons, he should do well on a course with generous fairways and smallish greens. 5 points Goosen to beat Els @ 10/11 with BlueSq won 4.54 points Els is playing well enough, but nowhere near his best. He is struggling with the putter, he is well outside the top100 for GIR and is scoring over 0.5 shots per round more than Goosen. Goosen is 5-2 up in the 2006 head to heads with 1 tie (last weeks BMW Championship). |
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