Golf. Estoril Open de Portugal. A move back to the short but very difficult Oitavos Golfe course. The wind coming off the Atlantic makes shooting under par a real challenge. In 2005 the top 10 saw an interesting mix of the old crusties like winner Paul Broadhurst, Barry Lane, Stephen Dodd, Gary Emmerson and Paul Lawrie, along side a few youngsters like Jose-Filipe Lima, Charl Schwartzel and Richard Sterne. It’s my guess that this shortish, difficult wind swept course will suit the older players. They may not have the big booming drives of some of the younger players, but they have the patience and experience to handle hard course in tricky conditions. 1 point e/w Paul Broadhurst @ 25/1 generally available. lost 2 points Winner of his last two events in Portugal and one of those on this course. His current form is not inspiring, but this is a step down in class. 1 point Alejandro Canizares @ 33/1 generally available. lost 1 point There are a lot of very good young players making a big impression on the European Tour and Canizares is one of them. He won the Russian Open last year, which might not have been against the highest quality field, but it was only his 3rd event on the full tour. He has been away playing on the US PGA Tour recently, and doing very well with two top 25 finishes from 3 starts. This guy could be the next Garcia……but hopefully he can putt and not go gobbing in hole cups. Stepping down in class, in good form, he looks an interesting betting opportunity. The early 40/1 has gone, but 33/1 looks O.K. in this very average looking field. 0.5 point e/w Stephen Dodd @ 50/1 generally available. lost 1 point 6th here in 2005 the 40 year old Dodd has been playing reasonably well in 2007, in better fields than this. Adding: Shell Houston Open 0.5 point e/w Anthony Kim @ 66/1 generally available. won 4.60 points This long course with minimal rough should reward the big hitters and Kim is certainly one of them, currently averaging over 304 yards off the tee. His GIR stats are impressive at not far off 70%. He is just 21 years old and looks like he could be very good. His recent form shows two top 15 finishes and in his only start in Texas, he was 2nd in last years Texas Open, so he should handle the conditions and the locals will love his rip roaring style. 8 points Harrington to beat Adam Scott @ 10/11 with Ladbrokes. lost 8 points In their two mutual stroke play events in 2007 Harrington is averaging a massive 3.38 shots per round lower that Scott. The Aussie just isn’t firing at present with form figures of 69, 21 and 61st while the ultra consistent Harrington has managed 12 top 20 finishes from his last 14 events. 5 points Shaun Micheel to beat Tim Clark @ 4/5 with SportingOdds. lost 5 points Clark is desperately trying to find some form before next weeks Masters. He has been suffering with an injury in 2007 and has only played in two events, both of them the big money WGC events, one match play and the other a ‘no cut’ event were he was guaranteed world ranking points and decent money just for turning up. His scoring last week was poor 76, 78, 71, 75, and finished with just a handful of players behind him. Micheel is not in the same league as a fit Tim Clark, but he has made his last 3 cuts and was a good 12th two weeks ago. I feel that Micheel just needs to make the cut to win this. |
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