Golf. Open De Espana. As usual, another new venue for this event which has a history of being a very happy hunting ground for big priced outsiders. Fasth bucked the trend last year, winning at 20/1, but four of the players in the payout zone were 125/1 or 150/1, in 2005 all the top 4 were 125/1 or bigger, 2004 saw a 200/1 winner and in 2003 only 1 of the top 5 was lower than less than 150/1. Playing a new venue does help the rookies on tour as they are not disadvantaged by a lack of course form. 0.5 point e/w Adrien Mork @ 200/1 with SportingOdds, Corals. lost 1 point If anything the rookies might hold a small advantage for the more senior tour pros as they played the course on the Challenge Tour last year, and Frenchman Mork won, his second win on the Challenge Tour that season. His debut win was in Morocco and was marked by his remarkable second round 59. Clearly, on his day, this guy is capable of burning up the course and a 2nd round 62 here last year suggests he has the game to suit. Certainly worth a small bet at huge odds. 0.5 point e/w Mads Vibe-Hastrup @ 200/1 with Corals lost 1 point Mads finished 4th behind Mork here last year and is in reasonable current form, making his last 4 cuts with a best finish of 4th place in Madeira Island Open a month ago. He has a solid if unspectacular all round game and might be inspired by his showing here in 2006. Bryon Nelson Championship. Brett Wetterich rewarded followers of this column with a 100/1 win last season and the key then was that he came into the event with some good recent form and stats that showed he was a long but accurate player, with the emphasis on good GIR stats. It will be hard to pick another winner at that price but there is a player that fits a similar profile. 2 points e/w Anthony Kim @ 40/1 generally available. lost 4 points Ranked 5th for driving distance and 10th for GIR. His current form is impressive (9/46/14/5/36/3) and while he has no course experience, his two Tour events in Texas have show finishes of 2nd and 5th. He is ranked 3rd for Ball Striking (a combination of distance and accuracy off the tee and GIR). He is a very confident player and expects to win soon. This looks a decent price. 0.5 point e/w Tommy Armour III @ 200/1 with SportingOdds. lost 1 point Tommy falls short in terms of distance but is ranked 6th for Ball Striking due to his excellent GIR stats (3rd) and Driving Accuracy (10th). He finished 4th in Texas 3 weeks ago. 2 points Jerry Kelly to finish in the top 10 @ 4/1 with Skybet. won 8 points Short off the tee, but very accurate, Kelly is in very good form having form figures of 9/5/8, his best form for a long time. He has some good course form to his name with 9th in 2003 and 11th in 2004. 5 points Poulter to beat Weir @ 10/11 with Centrebet. won 4.54 points Poulter is quietly going about his business on the US tour, picking up decent cheques without threatening to win. Three top 16 finishes (including 13th in the Masters) from 6 starts and just one missed cut. Weir is still struggling to put 4 good rounds together. His 20th place finish at Augusta (his main target for the season) is his best finish in 2007 and he has just 2 top 30 finishes all season. His course record is not great with 4 missed cuts from 6 starts. 5 points Donald to beat Mickelson @ evens with Stan James. won 5 points I am no great fan of Donald, for outright betting purposes at least, but he looks decent value to beat Mickelson who is currently ‘work in progress’ with a swing re-build. A few months ago Phil was extolling the virtues of his new squared headed driver, how he was hitting fairways like never before. Now, he can’t hit a cow’s backside with a banjo, hence the link up with Butch Harmon. Swing changes take time and often result in a drop in form as the player gets just used to the new movements and learns to trust it. Phil might well find himself in the doldrums for a few months. |
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