Volvo Masters – Valderama. A very hard course, not long at under 7000 yards, but any score under par is good scoring on this tree lined course. The wind usually blows, which really puts a premium on accuracy in breezy conditions. My long list for potential winners is – O’Malley, Garcia, Casey, Montgomerie, Hanson, Dredge, McGinley and Poulter. Garcia, I cannot back him at 7/1. Casey could win after a much needed break, but 16/1 is not giving much away. Monty, well possibly, his record here in the last 4 seasons has been great, but his post Ryder Cup form is poor. McGinley overcame a poor course record to win this last year and his 6th last week showed a return to form, a possible at 50/1. Poulter, simply too short to back at 16/1. 1 point e/w Peter Hanson @ 80/1 generally available. lost 2 points Won his first European tournament in Spain last year, in windy conditions, was 4th in this event in 2004 and 22nd in 2005. Long and straight of the tee, he is also ranked 7th for greens in regulation. He got right into contention in Mallorca last week but then proceeded to miss just about every green on the back 9 and fell back from being clear 2nd, 1 shot off the lead, to finish 18th. It could be that nerves got the better of him and he may be mentally tired after being in contention for the last two events he has competed in, but his tee to green game is perfect for this course. Hopefully he will be more relaxed having qualified for this end of term cash fest by just 2 places. If he plays as well as he has done recently, perhaps without the pressure of having to get a high finish, he can be in the mix come Sunday afternoon. Nice price. 1 point e/w Bradley Dredge @ 33/1 with Sunderlands lost 2 points Last weeks pick, but a non runner. Hopefully he just wanted to take a week off and save himself for the big finale rather than having an injury. Three top 15 finishes from 4 Volvo Masters starts shows that the Welshman can handle the course and his current form is excellent 18/1/2 (including new course record on the Old Course at St. Andrews). Double the price of Poulter and Casey, but that is not a true refection their chances, just their names. 3 points e/w Peter O’Malley to be top rest of the world player @ 10/1 with Totesport. won 4.5 points In a field of 9, this looks to be a very decent price to me. POM is exceptionally accurate off the tee and into the green. He is at his best on tight courses that reward accuracy but are not so long as to punish is lack of distance. He plays well in windy conditions. He should be very well suited to the course and his 4th place here in 2002 confirms it. A 5th place in Mallorca on another short but tight course held in breezy weather shows that he can still score well given the right environment. A hopeless putter, he isn’t worth backing in the outright market, but this ROW field is hardly full of world beaters. The obvious danger is Cabrera but his recent form is average. Richard Green is a possible but pulled out in Mallorca for ‘personal reasons’ while in a good position, so perhaps his mind will not be on the job (with no cut here he gets a nice cheque just for teeing off). Charl Schwartzel was the only other in the field that caught my eye, not in great form, but a good 15th last year. Match bets: 7 points O'Malley to beat Rumford @ 1.80 with Unibet (tie no bet) won 5.60 points In his last 5 events Rumford has only twice managed to break 70, with a best finish of 38th last week. His accuracy is very poor and if there was a cut in this event he would be packing his bags early. 5 points Harrington to beat Howell @ 1.75 with Unibet (tie no bet) won 3.75 points Not many bookies offering Howell in a match bet due to his current lack of fitness (shoulder injury). Obviously he is motivated by trying to win the OOM (he now trails Casey by e218K) but he has mostly struggled on the course and on the back of two missed cuts, with a bad injury, he may well throw in the towel. Harrington is no course expert, but is also in the hunt for the OOM and despite his pathetic effort last week, he must be fancied to beat an out of form crock. 5 points Archer to beat Storm @ 1.82 with Unibet (tie no bet) won 4.10 points Archer is making his Masters debut but he is playing like a robot week in week out, making cuts and banking nice cheques. He has made his last 11 cuts with 6 top 30's. He has finished ahead of Storm in their last 3 mutual events (beating Storm by 13 shots last week) and Storms only outing here was not a great experience, finishing 45th in a field of 60, including opening rounds of 75 and 76.
|
|
|
Betting Previews
|
|
|