Golf. BMW Championship – Wentworth. A great quality field on a classic course, should be good viewing, but punting wise? A nightmare if recent years results are anything to go by. The last 5 seasons have seen 4 winners priced 150/1, 80/1, 150/1 and of course Scot Drummond at 500/1. Clearly the cream does not always rise to the top in this event. The tree lined course suits accuracy, but big hitters have done well and this year the fact that the course has been extended by 310 yards and will play long after the recent heavy rain. That blend of distance off the tee and accuracy to the greens should suit favourite Ernie Els, who was employed to oversee the new course changes. However at 10/1, he makes no appeal as his recent form has not been anything special. Others at the top of the betting market include Goosen, a great player but not at the peak of his powers recently and is just as likely to miss the cut on this course as he is to get a top 10. Darren Clarke, well he has other things on his mind and anyone who saw him take 4 to get down from the front of the last green in Ireland last week could be forgiven for never wanting to back him, anywhere, ever, even at 3 times his current odds of 22/1. Angel Cabrera has a great course record, but his current form is very poor. Paul Casey just has not got that ability to turn good scores into wins and a poor course record. 1 point e/w Luke Donald @ 22/1 with VCBet or Skybet. lost 2 points The one favourite who is worth consideration is Luke Donald. He comes here without having the experience of thrashing around in the cold, wet and wind in Ireland last week, and in very good form on the US tour. 5 top 12 finishes this season, including a win, tells us that his game is in very good shape. He had to withdraw from the Wachovia Championship two weeks ago due to back problems, but he seems ok now after a solid 6th place finish in last weekends Byron Nelson. That was a course which was ‘old fashioned’ and required good shot making and accuracy, much like Wentworth. Strangely this is not a course that Donald has played very much, just last years 18th to go on, but he has a very strong all round game and should be contending for the win. 1 point e/w Anders Hansen @ 66/1 generally available. lost 2 points A surprisingly big price for a past winner of this event. He plays this course very well, 20th 2000, 21st 2001, won 2002 and 4th in 2004. The good news is that he is hitting the ball longer, straighter and has a lower putting average than when he won this in 2002. He withdrew after the 3rd round in Ireland last week, no doubt wanting to get prepared for a tournament in which he has done so well in the past. He is not a great winner, only the 1 win on tour, but his current form is good (4 top 10’s in his last 8 events) and on his favourite course, he is worth supporting at a decent price. With so many huge priced outsiders doing well in recent years, I have been looking for anything showing up on the ‘value radar’ and one name jumps out at a big price. 1 point e/w Peter Hanson @ 125/1 with Ladbrokes. lost 2 points This looks a great price on a player who in his 2 appearances in this event were 5th in 2005 and 20th in 2004. His recent form is encouraging, 10/11/54, and that 54th in the British Masters included a final round 80!(he started RD3 tied for 7th place). Clearly he is playing some good golf and the exciting statistic is that he is ranked 5th for GIR on the European tour, hitting 76.5 % of his greens in regulation. At Wentworth, that is the kind of stat you want your selection to have. 0.5 point e/w Mattias Eliasson @ 150/1 with BlueSq, SportingOdds, Bet365. lost 1 point Mattias enjoyed a great run of form in February through to the end of April with form figures of 8/5/7/3. Since then he has missed the cut in the Italian and Irish Open (a second round 70 was only bettered by 16 players, so it is not like he has lost his game). He has no course form, which is a big negative, but his GIR stats are good (73.5%). Has made great improvement in his iron play and putting this season and his game has moved up several levels as a result. FedEx St. Jude Classic. A classic in name only. The field is as weak as American beer. Course form has been the best guide to this event over the years has been course form combined with accuracy from tee to green. It is hard not just to pick the obvious candidates like Funk, Estes and Toms, but there are two players at slightly bigger odds who look like possible winners. 1 point e/w Richard S. Johnson @ 33/1 generally available. lost 2 point This US based Swede finished second (3rd top ten in his last 7 events) to Tim Herron last week and that will put him in a good frame of mind coming to a course on which he has played well before (3/mc/6). 1 point e/w Fredrik Jacobsen @ 25/1 with BlueSq, Centrebet. lost 2 points Another US based Swede who plays this course well (3/5/6 last 3 years) and he has shown signs of a return to form this season with a decent 17th place last week.s Match Betting: BMW Championship 7 points Niclas Fasth to beat Henrik Stenson @ evens with Skybet lost 7 points Stenson is tinkering with his swing at present, and what usually when a player does this is that his game goes off the boil for a while, and it is happening to Stenson. After a brilliant start to the season his game has lurched from good to poor and seems very much at the poor level now. His record at Wentworth is pretty poor as well, never better than 39th in 5 events, with 2 missed cuts. Fasth is in good form (last 5 events 17/10/1/60/19) and has solid course form (14/11/14/mc/27). 5 points Bradley Dredge to beat Colin Montgomerie @ 6/5 with Corals. won 6 points Course form vs. Current form? On Course form Monty should beat Dredge easily. The reigning European OOM holder has a great record at Wentworth including 3 wins and umpteen top 10’s. Dredge has 4 missed cuts, but an encouraging 10th last season. On current form however, Monty looks to have no chance. He has missed 7 cuts in his last 9 strokeplay events, while Dredge has had 2 top 6 finishes in his last 3 events and is much the fresher player having decided not to play in all the co-sanctioned Asian/European tour events, were as Monty has been flaying all over the planet, playing rubbish. Dredge is 3-0 up in 2006 and looks a good bet to make it 4-0. 5 points Bradley Dredge to beat Lee Westwood @ 10/11 with Ladbrokes. won 4.54 points Westwood is another player whose game is nowhere near its best. He has missed his last 4 cuts and come to a course on which he has missed 4 cuts in his last 5 outings. |
|
|
Betting Previews
|
|
|