Golf – Qatar Masters. Another quality field for this weeks European Tour event at the Doha Golf Club. Historically it is a course that has rewarded the big hitter, not a surprise given the length of the course, a testing 7355 yards. The wind is often a feature in the afternoon and the forecast suggests that those out in the first hour or so on Thursday, should get the best of the conditions with light winds before they pick up to gusts of up to 45KPH around noon through to 5 pm, before easing off again. Friday will not be so windy in the afternoon, with the strongest gusts at 35 KPH. Quite a few of the ‘big name’ players have not competed on the course before, but that should not be a huge disadvantage as debutants have gone well in the past, but on the other hand there are plenty of ‘horses for courses’ players who will look forward to a course on which they have played well on before. Current form does look to be important and the last 3 winners have had a top a top 10 finish in their last event. Certainly it seems that at least 1 recent outing has helped get the rust of players games after the New Year break. Stenson must have a good chance of defending his title. He hits the ball a long way, has great course form and a strong 5th in Abu Dhabi last week suggests he can lift the rather impressive trophy again. He also gets a nice early tee off time on Thursday morning, but the question has to be, is 10/1 a good enough price? 12/1 wasn’t quite good enough last week, and despite his course form and good tee off time on the easier inward 9, he just gets past over, but you might like to back him on the exchanges and look to lay him off early in the first round if he gets off to a flyer with that perfect draw on Thursday A.M. Last weeks pick, Robert Karlsson still looks worth support, despite a top price of 25/1 being less than was on offer for Abu Dhabi. A poor first round 73 was enough to keep him out of the top 5, but there was nothing much wrong with his game. His course record is good (last 5 in Doha 2/mc/25/5/15) and his strong run of form in the last 3 months shows no sign of waning just yet. Long off the tee, he has the added attraction of being a great putter and handling these tricky greens could be the deciding factor. 1 point win Robert Karlsson @ 25/1 generally available. lost 2 points Two players who catch the eye for being in form and with good course form are Nick Dougherty and Jose Manuel Lara. Lara broke is tour duck in Hong Kong before Christmas, after knocking on the door for quite a while. He missed the cut last week with a horrible 77 opening round, but a second round 69 suggests that he was rusty, rather than out of form. He has 4 top 25 finishes at Doha, including a 3rd in 2004 and now that he has that important first win under his belt, he could well ‘do an Edfors’ and win multiple titles this season. A poor 1st round draw means the stakes are kept small. 0.5 point e/w Jose Manuel Lara e/w @ 80/1 with Hills and Betfred lost 1 point Match Betting; 5 points Nick Dougherty to beat Johan Edfors @ 1.83 (tie no bet) with Unibet won 4.15 points I am an Edfors fan, but he was poor last week and is a player that tends to be either competing for a win, or nowhere. On the back of two missed cuts he looks to be struggling right now. He finished a very distant 79th on his only start here. Dougherty loves the course, having had 2 top 4 finishes in the last 5 years and warmed up with a solid 11th in Abu Dhabi last week (including an opening round of 66). 5 points Niclas Fasth to beat Michael Campbell @ evens with Centrebet Opposing the unpredictable Campbell as he comes here after a 5 week lay off, in questionable form and with a poor course record (2 x MC). There is always the risk that he has one of his going weeks but I suspect he is being well paid just to be here rather than this being a targeted winning opportunity. Fasth got his winter rust off last week with a reasonable 29th in Abu Dhabi and he has played well here in the past (blew two winning chances). lost 5 points |
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