BMW Championship. A star studded line up at the classic Wentworth West course. Tree lined fairways demand accuracy and good course management. The rough is long and the addition of yet more bunkering reinforces the need to place the ball in the right places. However, at 7320 yards long, this is not a short course and big hitters have enjoyed success, but only if that length of the tee is backed up by accurate iron play. Wentworth is a well established venue and course experience is valuable. The greens will be fast this year, 12 on the stimpmeter. A big difference to last year when a cold spring left them soft and slow. Big priced outsiders have done well in this event and current form has not been the best guide in recent years. Ideally you want a long driving player who is a great iron player and a great putter. Ernie Els fits the bill better than most and the fact that he lives beside the course and was responsible for the make over last year should make his chances even better. But before leaping to take the 9/1 available consider the fact that he has won just two, weak field events in South Africa in his last 48 tournaments and this is about a strong a field as you will in Europe outside of the open. Goosen also ticks most of the right boxes, but his course record does not justify 16/1, and the same goes for Stenson, although he does still seem to be improving and could be this weeks winner. For a bit of value I will go for another Swede, Karlsson. 1 point e/w Robert Karlsson @ 40/1 with Sunderlands (1/4 the odds 1st 6 places). lost 2 points Karlsson has been away playing on the PGA Tour for the last few weeks, with some success. His performance at the players Championship was excellent (6th place) and but for a poor 1st round 77, he could well have been the winner. His stats for the event were very impressive, 300 yards+ off the tee, nearly 60% of fairways hit, just under 70% GIR and just over 29 putts per round. If he can repeat that sort of performance, he can improve on his past course form that has seen 3 top 15 finishes in the last 7 years. 6 points Karlsson to beat Ian Poulter @ 10/11 with SportingOdds won 5.45 points Poulter has also been playing in the States, also with some success but his course record at Wentworth is poor, 5 missed cuts from 7 and a best placed 33rd. 4 points Richard Green to beat G. McDowell @ 10/11 with SportingOdds. won 3.64 points The straight hitting Green has a game that suits Wentworth and he is in better form than the over rated McDowell (3 wins and a draw up on the 2007 H2H’s). The Ulsterman has his moments but his record here is only fair, best finish 27th in 2004 and 2005. Green has 4 top 20 finishes in the last 7 years. 1 point e/w Gary Orr to be Top Scottish Player at 9/1 with SportingOdds. lost 2 points Orr has a great record at Wentworth, 5 top 10 finishes in the last 10 years and just 1 missed cut. The quality of this field of 15 is not great. Favourite Montgomerie used to own this course, but he is past his best now, Forsyth is scared of seeing his name on the leader board, Gallagher has a very poor course record, Warren very little experience of the course at all, while Storm hasn’t bettered 60th in two attempts. The rest of the field, like Lyle, Coltart and Oldcorn are past their best days, or like O’Hara and Drummond, just not good enough. The Colonial 1 point e/w Anthony Kim @ 40/1 with Sunderlands (e/w 1st 6 places) lost 2 points A very traditional course that rewards good course management and at just over 7050 yards players that can hit it long and straight have a big advanatge. Kim is one of the finest drivers of the ball on tour, very long but also sensible enough to play a 3 wood if needs be. He is helped by the fact that his GIR stats are excellent and his ranking of 4th for ball striking (driving distance+ driving accuracy+ GIR) suggests that this course will suit him. He will win soon , and in this fairly weak field, he must have a chance despite it being his course debut. |
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