Golf – BMW Asian Open. For the connoisseurs of smog, China is a must (almost see) destination. This weeks venue will be another identikit US style resort course with lots of water hazards, huge shallow bunkers, flat fairways and smog. The only differences between this and last weeks course is that the rough is not as punishing and the greens are much faster, 11.5 on the stimp meter as opposed to 9.6 on last weeks. Looking at the stats of the top five players in this event for the last four years it is clear than the bigger hitters have a slight advantage but the key to winning this is putting. Usually GIR stats are vital, but here it seems it is going to be a putting competition. The best putter in the field is David Howell, on the come back from injury and just two weeks into working with a new coach. Second in Portugal three weeks ago signalled a possible return to top form and five under par on the 15th hole in his first round last week left many thinking they had passed up a cracking bet at 25/1. But then reality bit and Howeller walked of the course level par after the sort of golf you expect to see at the local municipal. To his credit he fought back and was again five under during his 3rd round, only to finish with two double bogies. Sunday saw him dropping four shots in the first three holes and a tame finish in 29th place. At 33/1 Howell has make some appeal, but his game is very much work in progress and he is happy to admit he doesn’t really have a clue were the ball is going to go from shot to shot. He made more birdies than anyone else last week, but the bad shots are plentiful and very bad. When the penny finally drops he will win, no doubt. It is just a question of weather now is the time? There is nothing wrong with his putting and that will keep him in with a chance but with water hazards galore, he is likely to have a few more horrors along the way. I will have to chicken out from tipping him, but for those that like to play on the exchanges, he could be a decent lay if he does get off to a good start like last week as no doubt he will have another roller coaster weekend. Retief Goosen is another player coming back from the abyss and he plays well in this part of the world. He is the form pick but the price of 12/1 is not great about someone who has not won for some time. Henrik Stenson lost in a playoff here two years ago and again is a player who likes playing in China. His current form is good, but he has had a lot of near misses recently and 11/1 is only fair. Joyti Randahawa looks like a player who will do well, his current form is strong, his putter very good and he has two top 16 finishes on the course. His problem is that he has failed to win when faced with a few golden opportunities recently and looks like a poor finisher. I just prefer his fellow countryman Jeev Milka Singh. 1 point e/w J. M. Singh. @ 28/1 with Coral, Totesport, Skybet. T24th -lost 2 points Jeev is a proven winner on the Asian, Japanese and European tours and has returned from a successful run of three events on the US tour concluding with 25th place in the Masters. If he could handle the glass like greens of Augusta he should putt well here and two previous top 10’s suggest that he can go close again. 3 points Joyti Randhawa to beat Martin Kayer @ evens with Bet365. lost 3 points Kaymer won in Abu Dhabi back in January and was 2nd in Dubai shortly after, but his recent form is not good, albeit that he is playing in top quality events in America. Sometimes the experience of playing on the US tour is negative for young European players and on his only European Tour event in the last two months he was an ordinary 39th. It has been a hectic schedule for the young German and he might just need a little time to take it all in and get back to winning ways. Randhawa may not be a great winner, but he is a steady competitor (last 5 events all top 11 finishes) and has finished 10th and 16th on his two appearances here. |
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