|
Golf – WGC World Match Play. The format of 18 hole knockout golf is not the most attractive format as far has having a bet is concerned as even the best players can have a moderate round and find themselves beaten by the outsider who just had good day with the putter. Of course the field here is made up of the top 64 players in the world rankings (65th is first reserve etc.) so even the lowest ranked players are more than useful. To put it simply, this is a very hard event to win and a very hard event to pick the winner. Tiger Woods is twice a winner of this event, has won 23 of his 28 ties, is playing the best golf of his life but is he any value at 3/1? We saw in Dubai that he is still capable of having a poor round, or two as was the case. Over a four days in stroke play he is good enough to overcome a couple of poor rounds, but in 18 hole match play he can be beaten. He has won two from eight WGC Match Play titles and the 3/1 is no more than a fair price. Last years winner, Henrick Stenson, looks a better bet at 30/1. He is in great form, clearly can play the course and he looks to have a decent draw. He is in the top half of the ‘Hogan’ bracket which features the out of form Romero, Immelman and Goosen. Els is also there but his WGC Match Play record is pretty dire in recent years having only won one tie in the last four years and going out on day one for the last three. Jonathon Byrd and Katayama should hold no fears and his first round opponent, Robert Allenby, could be the biggest danger in the top end of the Hogan group, so he looks to have a reasonable opportunity to progress to the quarter final stage. 1 point e/w Henrik Stenson @ 30/1 with Boylesports. won 6.5 points Nick O’Hern has a reputation as bottler in stroke play but his record in this event is impressive. Three times a quarter finalist in four starts and has won all his 1st round ties. His recent form is good (2/mc/13) and he will come here with good memories of knocking out Tiger Woods not once but twice. He meets Scot Verplank in the first round who is modest performer in this event with four wins from twelve ties but he will be no push over, however if O’Hern gets through him the ‘Player’ bracket does not look overly strong in the early stages. He is available at 125/1 with Ladbrokes but perhaps the best way to back him is on the exchanges with the view to lay him if he gets to the quarter final stage again. 1 point win Nick O’Hern @ 160 with Betfair. lost 1 point If backing in the outright winner markets is hard, the individual round betting is no easier, but there are a couple of first round ties that look interesting. 5 points Stuart Appleby to beat Tim Clark @ 4/6 with VCBet. won 3.33 points Basically Clark is right out of form while Appleby seems to have found his A game once more. Clark has managed just one sub 70 round in his last thirteen competitive rounds missing four cuts from five with a best finish outside the top 40 in a modest South African event. He has been suffering with an injury and this looks like the cause of his woes. Of course even the first round losers pick up $30k so injured or not he will turn up. On recent form Appleby looks to have a big advantage over Clark and even the odds of 4/6 look generous. 2 points Jonathan Byrd to beat Ernie Els @ 2/1 with Totesport, Sportingbet. won 4 points With Els having only won one of his last five ties in this event, he looks taking on even with the uninspiring Byrd. Els was still suffering from the last nine collapse in Dubai when he was last seen making up the numbers in the Indian Masters. If he plays like that he will be out early. Byrd has good form in Arizona nd if Els is still under a cloud, Byrd is perfectly capable of beating him. Round 3 Update: O'Hern was sadly dumped in Round 2 but hopefully some of you will have traded out on Wednesday night when he was available to lay as low as 21.0 on Betfair. Our other selection, Henrik Stenson, made it through to round 3 but his golf has looked very flakey at times and having played 42 holes in the first two rounds, he must be mentally tired. It seems wise to oppose him to small stakes with Jonathon Byrd in today's tie. Byrd has hardly had to break sweat to beat the out of form Els and Romero, but his own golf has been very impressive, ten under par for the twenty seven holes he has played. He'll certainly be fresher than Stenson and if the Swede plays like he did last night, he will be out. 2 points Jonathon Byrd to beat Henrik Stenson @ 5/4 with Totesport, Paddy Power, Skybet. lost 2 points The bet of the round looks to be Steve Stricker to beat Angel Cabrera. Stricker came to the tournament in good form and has carried that into match play. He has won two great matches and is -14 for those two rounds. Cabrera beat Donald last night in a very low quality tie, -1 was enough to see off the under achieving Englishman and he didn't face any great challenge in beating the out of form Anders Hansen in round one. If Stricker can keep up his level of play today, he really shouldn't need the full 18 holes to win the match. 5 points Stricker to beat Angel Cabrera @ 1.90 with Totesport. lost 5 points |
|
|
Betting Previews
|
||