Golf – The Open Championship. The Royal Liverpool course at Hoylake last hosted the Open in 1967 and it has come in for some criticism as to whether it is up the Open standard. One aspect that has been singled out by some in the US media is the number of internal out of bounds around the course and that serves to highlight that this course will require accuracy off the tee. On top of the out of bounds, the bunkers are hazards, perhaps some thing that the American hacks are unfamiliar with, but early reports say the recent dry spell has left the rough not nearly as penal as hoped for. Tiger Woods defends his title but this is not St. Andrews which maybe the home of golf but it is not nearly the most testing of links courses. It is much more forgiving on errant drives and explains why Woods and Daly have both prospered there. The grip it and rip it brigade will not get away with missing too many fairways this week, out of bounds are so much more punishing than playing from the rough. Woods may well be a factor this week but only if he keeps his driver safely locked away, but even if he does, 6/1 makes little appeal. Phil Mickelson has been making a real effort to prepare for this event, playing a lot of practice rounds to get a feel for the course and his whole season is built around winning majors, but Phil is not a great traveller. His Open record, with the exception of 3rd at Royal Troon in 2004, is very ordinary. Ernie Els is another who has taken time to play a lot of practice rounds on the course and he looked like his game was getting back in shape at Loch Lomond last week with the exception of his putting and that problem with the sort stick is just enough to put me off the 18/1. Vijay Singh is the most tempting of the big names. His current form is very strong (1/6/4) and his event record is good with two top 5 finishes in the last 3, but he is another who would really be better off not using a driver on this course. Goosen is not at the peak of powers and makes little appeal despite being a near permanent fixture in the top 10 in Open Championships. Tiger Woods win last year was a welcome antidote to two 750/1 winners in 2005 and 2004, but the Open has a history of ‘outsiders’ doing very well and while another 750/1 winner is unlikely, do not be surprised to see a few 100/1+ shots in the frame on Sunday afternoon, and you will find plenty of quality players at very fancy prices on offer. 2 points e/w Kenny Perry outright @ 125/1 with BetFred (e/w top 6). lost 4 points One of the unfashionable American players who often goes off at very attractive odds. He had knee surgery in March and now is coming back to form with two top 13 finishes in his last 3 events. His Open record is good with form figures of 8/16/11 for the last three years. His main strengths are excellent iron play (GIR 6th in 2006) and the rare ability to drive the ball long and straight. From tee to green there are few better (ranked 4th for ball striking) but it is on the greens that he struggles. The fact that the greens this week will be relatively slow (10 – 10.5 on the stimp meter) may well help the poor putters in the field and in the recent past we have seen some poor punters do well, such as Fred Couples and Thomas Levet. There were signs that his putter was relatively hot by his standards at last weeks Western Open when he was ranked 24th for putts per GIR. 0.25 point Sell Nick O’Hern’s finishing position at 42 with SportingIndex lost 11 points It takes a leap of faith to back O’Hern outright as he is famous for coming second, something that might make his wife happy, but not so good for punters. For that reason he is better backed on the spreads or exchanges. Nick is one of the straightest hitters in golf, a great putter and it is something of a mystery as to how he has not yet won on the European or US tours. He has played well in the opening 2 majors in 2006, 19th in the masters and 6th in the US Open and was 15th at St. Andrews. This tighter course should suit his game and he comes here in good form with a recent 2nd (naturally!) at the Booz Allen. 0.5 point back Mikko Ilonen @ 1000 on Betfair. If O’Hern is a leap of faith, backing Ilonen is close to insanity, but there are 3 reasons that suggest he could be a great back to lay bet. First, he won the British Amateur on this course in 2000, second, he tees off at 6.52 am and third, this course is said to be comparable to Royal Lytham & St. Annes and Mikko finished 9th in the 2001 Open there. The weather forecast for the week is for lots of sunshine and not a great deal of wind, but links courses always have a breeze blowing even on clam days and the time when there is the least wind is early in the morning and early evening. He will have very calm conditions and almost virgin greens. He will come to this course with good memories and might just get off to a flying start. A couple of birdies in the first 9 holes and his name will be up in lights and we can lay off for a profit. Hills only offer 200/1 about Ilonen, so I am not the only lunatic. #updated Friday 10.00am. 2 points Lay Ilonen @ 200 or less won 1.5 points Match Bets 5 points Richard Green to beat Chris DiMarco @ 10/11 with SportingOdds. lost 5 points Greens game is based on accuracy and he is in reasonable form coming to a course that should suit. DiMarco is having a terrible season, really struggling just to make cuts. His Open record is very ordinary, best finish 47th in 6 attempts. Green is 3-1 up on Open H2H’s. 5 points Harrington to beat Donald @ 10/11 with SkyBet. lost 5 points Both players are in great current form but it is Donald’s record at the Open which makes Harrington the call. Donald has played 6 Opens and his record is 5 missed cuts and 52nd last year. Harrington has a couple of 5th places under his belt along with many other solid top 30 finishes. The Irishman is clearly more at home on links courses and the US based Donald obviously prefers the US target golf courses. The Open Update - Sunday 11.30 am. So far so bad, but there are 2 bets for the final day. 7 points Woods to beat Garcia @ 4/6 with Paddy Power, BlueSq, BetDirect. won +4.67 points Even for top players, following one great round with another is very difficult, there is always a sense of frustration that quickly creeps into the players mind as he fails to match yesterdays great score, then they start trying to chase the score and playing the wrong shots. A great score on this course so far has been a 65 or 66. So far this week we have seen the following follow up rounds to very low rounds. Woods 65 – 71, Els 65 – 71, DiMarco 65 – 69, Goosen 66 – 72, McDowell 66 – 73, Schwartzel 66 – 71. Only DiMarco managed to follow up with a sub 70 round. Going into in the final round we have Garcia, Cabrera and Furyk all coming in on the back of very low rounds and it does not bode well for their chances today. Garcia faces the added problem of playing with Tiger Woods, still the most intimidating golfer on the planet. Garcia was mighty yesterday, the first 9 in 29 shots, brilliant, but I expect that he will struggle to get close to 70 today and Woods does not choke when faced with an opportunity to win a major. 2 points DiMarco to win outright @ 10/1 with Hills, Ladbrokes. lost 2 points I fully expected DiMarco to be back home in America today, but he has been inspired by the sudden death of his mother to play not only the best golf of the year, but perhaps of his life. It is interesting that he has been the only player to follow up a very low round with another under 70. He does not have to go out with Tiger, but I suspect that he would not be bothered as he is playing under the kind of mental calmness that can only be brought about under exceptional circumstances. Get the tissues ready. |
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