Asian Open. An interesting looking field with the betting market dominated by the three ‘big name players’ Els, Goosen and Casey. Els is 6/1 co-favourite which is amazing as he is not playing anywhere near his best and was still playing the final round of the Verizon Heritage in South Carolina on Monday. Ok he finished in 2nd place, but rather let another winning chance slip after opening rounds of 65/65. This maybe a weaker field, but the big easy seems to have lost that winning touch. He has won just 1 of his last 37 events……and he is 6/1 joint favourite, a definition of crap value if ever there was one. The Goose is a little better, he has won 3 of his last 40 events and he is in better form than Els, but 6/1? No thank you. Casey then? A bigger price at 10/1, but still a poor strike rate of 3 from his last 36. He is at least getting close to his ‘true odds’, but hardly great value. Of course these three are great players and could well win, but perhaps it is a better bet to look for bigger priced players with some good course or current form. 1 point e/w Richard Sterne @ 33/1 generally available won 1 point Richard Sterne is in great form, only once out of the top 20 in his last 10 starts, the last four all top 5 and included a win in South Africa. He played well in last weeks China Open, finishing 5th. His course form is reasonable and he blew a big change of a top 10 here in 2005 with a final round 77. He is still young, improving and may relish the chance to show the most famous fellow South Africans what he can do. 1 point e/w Simon Dyson @ 28/1 with Coral. lost 2 points A course specialist with form figures of 2/14/5 and playing consistently well these days now that he has fully dedicated himself to golf. He enjoys playing against the big names and loves playing in Asia. He still has a chance of winning the Asian Order of Merit and will be over the bout of food poisoning that ruled him out of last weeks event. Twice a winner in his last 36 events and placed on 5 other occasions, Dyson looks a decent e/w bet. 5 points Liang to beat Jaidee @ 1.90 with Centrebet (tie no bet). won 4.5 points Liang has finished ahead of Jaidee in their last 4 mutual events as the popular Thai’s form has taken a dip. He has failed to make the cut in two attempts on this course. Liang is enjoying a good run of form with five top 10 finishes in his last 10 events and making the cut in all 10. Zurich Classic of New Orleans. Difficult to asses what like of player will thrive on this course that has only been used once before, but at over 7500 yards, it must help to be long off the tee, and with all courses, good iron play and putting can win events. 1 point Bubba Watson to win @ 64/1, 2 points to place @ 14/1 with Unibet won 8.33 points Ranked number 1 for driving distance at an incredible 313.5 yards, but while he does spray it around, his accuracy to the green is good, ranked 34th. Perhaps the most encouraging reason for backing him is that he has improved his putting this season. Having ended 2006 ranked 148th for putts per GIR but he is now ranked 30th. His form is erratic but there are enough positive signs from 4 top twenty finishes in his last 8 events, including a 2nd place at the recent Houston Open (another long course) and last weeks missed cut on a short, tight course was never going to suit him. |
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