Asian Open. It’s hard to get too excited about a tournament with Jimenez as 11/1 favourite, but he did win here in 2004 and was impressive in the US Masters. The tight nature of the course should play to the strengths of Henrik Stensons game, but 12/1 for a player who has shown some poor form recently is not a great price. Granted this is a drop in class, but his putting still leaves a lot to be desired. Paul Casey is probably a bit too weak on the greens to justify 14/1, Bjorn is not the player he once was, Dougherty is starting to look a bit jaded after a lot of golf already in 2006 and Monty has gone off the radar since the ex-wife hit him for £15 million. That is the top 6 in the betting and none make any great appeal, perhaps there is better value further down the field. European players have done well on this course, perhaps it is the fact that the greens are not the usual heavily grained surfaces found on most Asian courses, so perhaps it is best to stay away from the ‘local’ players. 1 point e/w Simon Dyson @ 33/1 with BlueSq, Hills, VCbet. won +1.75 points Dyson’s fine form in Asia continued with a 10th place last week and his course form is very strong with 2nd place in 2004 and 14th last year. He is playing as well as ever in 2006 and there is no reason to suspect he will not be contending again this week. 1 point win outright Soren Hansen @ 70.0 with Betfair lost 1 point Soren is playing good golf at present but his big problem is that when he gets into contention he plays poorly. Last week a final round 75 knocked him back to 28th from 11th, in Portugal 2 weeks before another rd4 75 dropped him from 8th to 19th and here last year lying 6th after rd3, he shot 73 to drop back to 8th. Soren is clearly a bit of a bottler but he is worth backing at a big price with a view to laying off if he gets into contention. He does have a good straight hitting game which will suit the course, so it would be no surprise if he were to get into contention at some point. 5 points Prayad Marksaeng to beat Thongchai Jaidee @ evens with Skybet lost 5 points Marksaeng is playing the better golf at the moment (9/3/10 last 3 events) while Jaidee may have peaked (MC/55/MC). He can be forgiven the last MC as that was on his US Masters debut but one has to wonder whether the big trip to the US followed by the disappointment of missing the cut will have further taken the edge of his game. Both players missed the cut here last year but Marksaeng was 3rd here in 2004. 4 points Jeev Milka Singh to beat Colin Montgomerie @ 11/8 with Corals lost 4 points There is a risk that Singh will suffer some mental let down after his debut win last week and a danger that Montgomerie will find his game again, but on the evidence of current form Singh should win this match up. Monty has missed his last 5 consecutive cuts (granted in much better fields than this) and when his head goes down, it really goes down. Singh has finished 10th here on both occasions and if he can react positively after his win last week he could be up at the right part of the leaderboard. Adding: Shell Houston Open. 1 point e/w Mark Wilson @ 125/1 with Ladbrokes lost 2 points This new tree lined, water hazard strewn course looks to be a real test of a players all round game. David Toms was the players consultant in the design and as such it should reward accuracy to the greens and good shot making. It is long at 7457, but it is not an out and out power hitters track. Mark Wilson may not be a well know name but his game looks very well suited to this tough test of golf. His only major weakness is distance off the tee. His stats look very impressive, GIR - 3rd, putting average - 12th, all round ranking 5th, birdie average - 5th, scoring average 6th. His current form is very solid (last 4 events 9/20/34/19) and he had his best ever tour finish in Texas last year (3rd Texas Open) so perhaps he likes playing in the Texan conditions? He should be able to steer his way round this new course as well as any, and he can finish the job on the greens. Clearly some people are latching on this guy as he is as short as 30/1 for this tournament. The price is big for a player who may very well spring a surprise win this season.
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