Portugal Masters. Another new course, so no past form to go on. The first thing that struck me when looking at the odds is that Justin Rose is 9/1 favourite. OK, he is playing very well this season and in with a real chance of winning the order of merit, but he has just 3 tournament wins to his name two back in 2002, and a very weak event in Australia last November. Make no mistake, he finds winning very difficult and strikes me as extremely poor value. Rose was going to be the next big thing in golf when he exploded on to the scene with a 4th place in the 1998 Open, but it has taken him a long time to really establish himself at the upper end of the world rankings, but he has achieved that without doing a lot of winning. Rory McIlroy has also been tipped for greatness but the difference between himself and Rose is that he has taken to the professional game like a duck to water. He played in several pro events as an amateur and that has served him well as he is used to all workings of the professional game. In just three events as a pro he has picked up enough cash to secure his tour card for 2008 and has set himself the target of qualifying for the season ending Volvo Masters. To do this he has to win just over 137000 euro in the next two events. A finish of 4th or better this week will do it and I would not be at all surprised if he wins this week. Certainly finishes of 3rd in the Dunhill and 4th in Madrid last week show that his game is in very good shape. McIlroy, I believe, had the lowest handicap in Europe since Sergio Garcia, when he turned pro, +6 if my memory serves me well. This underlines that we are talking about a player of exceptional ability but perhaps the most impressive thing about him is that he has not been overawed by the step up from leading amateur to tour pro. Dare I say that it reminds me of a certain Tiger Woods? Perhaps that is a little bit over the top, but if McIlroy doesn’t start winning tournaments very soon, I will be very surprised. Some may argue that he is already ‘exposed’ and there is no value in his price, but I would take 30/1 McIlory over 9/1 Rose any day. 1 point McIlroy e/w @ 30/1 with Stan James. lost 2 points 4 points Soren Hansen to beat Nick Dougherty @ evens with Stan James. lost 4 points Hansen has been in great shape of late, form figures of 2/7/19/2/mc/3/mc/1/8 are evidence of that. His two missed cuts came in the USPGA, which was a rare trip overseas and a major to boot, and the European Masters at the quirky Crans-sur-Sierre course in Switzerland. He can be forgiven for those two blots on the copy book. The fact that he was 8th in the Dunhill last time out was eye-catching, as he had missed four of his last five cuts there. Dougherty won his last event, going some way to remove the ‘bottler’ tag from round his neck, but there have to be doubts as to whether he can follow up a rare win with another strong result. Historically he has usually followed up top 5 finishes with a poor result, which is true of many pros. Evens looks a decent price for a player very much in form. |
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