Golf. The Colonial. This is a real plotters course, not very long, par 70 with just 2 par 5’s, the trick is to keep the ball on the fairway and hit as many of the small greens as possible. Historically older, accurate players have done well and outsiders have a good record. With a very weak looking field, the outsiders could again spring a surprise. Jim Furyk is the obvious favourite and has the game to suit the course, but 12/1 is hardly generous for a player that does tend to be 2nd and 3rd rather to often to make 12/1 any value. 1 point e/w Joe Durant @ 100/1 generally available. lost 2 points Nobody on tour is better than Durant at hitting the ball straight. 2nd for driving accuracy, 9th for GIR and he is not short off the tee either, averaging over 290 yards. His problem is that he putts like a club golfer, taking over 32 putts per round, when the good putters will be averaging nearer 30. However, if he going to win again, it will be on a course that puts a premium on accuracy as that his is great strength. His game is pretty good shape (4th place finish in the Zurich Classic 3 weeks ago) and he showed that he can play the course well when finishing 3rd last year. 1 point e/w Charles Warren @ 100/1 generally available. lost 2 points Warren, at just 30 years old, may not fit the profile of being one of the older players that do well here, but he is ranked 1st for ball striking (GIR 5th, DD 26TH and DA 35TH) and that mix of accuracy and power is just what you need to win here. Kenny Perry has had 2 wins here, a second place and holds the tournament record. He won this easily last year, a year in which he finished the season as the number 1 ranked ball striker, the position that Warren now fills. His current form is fairly good 21/12/57. Warren, I am convinced, is good enough to win a tournament and this course should provide him with a good opportunity to show his strengths. 2 points e/w John Senden to be top Australasian @ 8/1 with Stan James. lost 4 points With only 10 runners in this market Senden looks a bit of e/w value. Ranked 7th for ball striking, he has a good solid straight hitting game which took him to 9th place here in 2004. His recent form is solid (21/15/22/mc) and he should have a good chance of at least getting a place in the top 3 in this weak looking bunch. Irish Open. This week’s European golf looks set to be dominated by the weather. Thursday looks very bad with unseasonably windy weather mixed with showers, heavy at times. The next 3 days are less windy but showers are expected to last for all four days. The course is described as an inland links course, exposed to the wind and features narrow fairways and lots of bunkers. It will suit accurate players, but also players who play well in poor weather conditions. 1 point e/w Paul Lawrie @ 100/1 with BlueSq, Ladbrokes and VCBet. The former Open Champion loves it when the conditions are foul. He knows he can play well in the conditions, while many players hate it. He may not be the best player in the field, but the worse the weather the more his chances improve. The linksy type of course will suit him perfectly, he grew up playing links golf which also explains why he is so good in poor weather. His form this year has been pretty good (last 5 - 28/19/10/8/mc) and if the wind keeps blowing, he could win this. 5 points Graeme McDowell to beat Colin Montgomerie @ 10/11 with Stan James. lost 5 points Big Monty designed this course and you might think that gives him an edge, he should know exactly how to play it. On the other hand, he is likely to be thinking more about the course, how it is playing, what the others think of his handiwork etc. It could be a big distraction. Monty’s game is not in great shape either, in his last 8 stroke play events he has missed 6 cuts, and I have to doubt his abilities on ‘links’ courses. By his own admission, he does not think they play to his strengths and he gives that as a reason for his poor Open Championship record. McDowell finally looks like he is finally coming back to form (15/mc/8 last 3 events) and having learnt his golf at Royal Portrush, he will be very used to playing tight courses in bad weather. 6 points M. Campbell to beat Henrik Stenson @ 10/11 With BlueSq won +5.45 points Campbell came back from a long lay off to finish 5th at the Belfry last week, and he had his chances to win, but he was very happy to have played so well having been sitting at home with the clubs in the cupboard for a month. With the rust knocked of his swing, he should go well again this week. He is a proven winner on hard courses and plays well in the wind. Stenson, in top form, would be a fancy to win this, but his game is not great at the moment. He was second in the Asian Open but his results are lurching from very poor to good and he is struggling with putting and his driving accuracy is not as good as last season. This course, played in difficult conditions is likely to find any cracks in the Swedes game. 5 points Paul Broadhurst to beat Paul McGinley @ 10/11 with VCBet won 4.54 points Broadhurst is another player whose game is fluctuating between excellent and poor. In his 8 stroke play events this season he has 1 win and two top 10’s but also 3 missed cuts. McGinley on the other hand has been very consistent, consistently poor. Granted they have been in much stronger fields that the ones Broadhurst has been playing in, but 4 missed cuts on the trot will not be doing much for his confidence. His record of playing at home is pretty poor as well, in his last 9 home events he has 2 top 10’s, 3 missed cuts and 4 midfield finishes. On raw stroke averages Broadhurst is nearly 5 stokes around better on recent form, and even taking into account the quality of the relative opposition, he looks to have a stroke or 2 in hand. |
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