South African Open. Another new venue, so it is hard to say who the course will suit. However as it is a Nicklaus designed course featuring water in play on six holes and lots of big shallow bunkers, it would appear to be a very American style layout rather than a more traditional south African course. Fittingly for a national Open, this event has been won by a home player for the last six years and while the placed golfers have come in a big odds, the recent winners have been pretty short prices, so it seems wise to be looking and a home player who is in form and has plenty of experience of American style courses. As usual the bookies have Els as favourite, which is simply unbelievable. Anyone who watched the once great man blowing a very comfortable four stroke lead last week will appreciate that 5/1, even in a field with limited quality in depth, is stinking value. Ernie just finds winning golf tournaments very difficult to do these days. Retief Goosen is beginning to be priced up at almost realistic levels these days, but Els remains the worst value golfer on the planet. I fancy the winner will be one of the younger generation of South Africans and the two that stand out are Trevor Immelman and Tim Clark. Immelman is plenty short enough at 7/1 and his current form is patchy, a missed cut flanked by a good 6th in the Dunhill Championships at St. Andrews and a 7th place in Hong Kong. The high finish in Hong Kong was largely the result of a remarkable second round 62, If he can bring that game to this event, he wins, but the other three rounds were nothing special and given the fact that he hasn’t won a tournament in over 30 attempts, the 7/1 is not very attractive. Clark, for some strange reason, is twice that price despite the fact that his record in this event includes two wins and he just lost out on another victory in a play off with Immelman in 2003. He was 9th in last years South Africa Open and clearly he rates this event as a very important. He has yet to win on the US PGA Tour, but has had three second place finishes in his last ten PGA tour events and no less than six top 10’s. A choker or a winner waiting to happen? Whatever people think of his poor ‘in-contention to wins ratio’ in the States, it is clear that he is not afraid of winning his home Open. This is step down in class from playing in America and he looks a great bet to me. 2 points e/w Tim Clark @ 14/1 with Sunderlands (e/w top 6 places). lost 4 points With outsiders often popping up in the top 5 at big prices it is worth having a look at few. Francois Delamontagne was in great form on the Challenge Tour this year and players coming from that more ‘junior’ level did very well last week. The French man came in 9th and that was after a opening round of 77 (5 over par) so his last three rounds were top class. He is long driver and I suspect that will be an advantage on what is effectively a rich mans ‘resort course’, so the premium is likely to be second shots rather than accuracy of the tee. However, Delamontagne is an unlikely winner (especially as the locals have such a good grip on the title) and he might be better backed in the Top European market which is certainly not thick with top class talent this week. 1 point e/w Francois Delamontagne Top European player @ 10/1 with Stan James. won 1 point (treble bogey on the last hole proved very expensive!) Two other players who are fresh off the Challenge Tour and who played very well last week were Ross McGowan and Joost Luiten. Finishing 5th and 4th respectively, it may be asking a bit much for them to repeat that form in a stronger field and they are at shorter odds as a result of their fine efforts at Leopard Creek. Adding: 4 points Andrew McLardy to beat Oliver Wilson @ evens with Ladbrokes. lost 4 points Not much between these two based on European Tour form but McLardy, like so many of his fellow African born pros (McLardy is a Zimbabwean), he plays much better on 'home' ground. Their head to head record in South Africa is 5-1 to McLardy and he is decent form with finishes of 27/8/18 in his last three events. Evens looks a touch on the generous side. |
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