Golf – South African Open. A reasonable field for this weekends South African - European Tour event. Home players have dominated this event in the past and with Els, Goosen and Immelman in the field, South African players have strong representation and head the betting markets. The Humewood GC is a classic links course, said to be one of the finest in South Africa. There are doubts about the form of Els and Goosen which suggests that there is better value elsewhere. Els has struggled with his game after his knee injury and resulting surgery. The knee is still painful and is responsible for some swing faults. His form is hardly desperate (last 6 events all top 10 finishes) but for a player who usually goes off at single figure odds, he needs to be winning more often to justify betting on him. Goosen is not at the peak of his powers and is fluctuating between being very competitive, to struggling to make the cut (last 6 events 45/1/mc/4/3 mc). His win was in a weak Asian PGA event and even at the best of his recent form, he may well find one or two ahead of him come Sunday. Immelman might be the best of the home players having being playing very well on the US tour this season, including a win and 5th place last time out in the Tour Championship. He has won this event in 2003 and 2004 which will help his confidence even further. His odds are hardly huge but he looks to have strong claims for the title. 2 points win outright Trevor Immelman @ 9/1 with Stan James, Skybet. lost 2 points After the ‘big 3’ we have Cabrera, Westwood and Schwartzel. Cabrera is a player who wins very rarely and hard to back at 16/1. Westwood is not unlike Cabrera in that respect, while Schwartzel is likely to be mentally drained after letting a winning chance slip away last week. Outside of the top six in the betting we have a big jump in prices from 16/1 to next best 40/1, and there has to be some value in backing some of the big priced outsides who are in form. 0.5 point e/w Richard Sterne @ 80/1 with Corals. lost 1 point A very highly rated South African youngster who has already won on the European Tour. He has come out of long spell of poor form with 3 top 15 finishes in his last 5 events and it is interesting that he was 15th in the Dunhill Links Championship in October, which suggests that he is comfortable playing links courses. 0.5 point e/w Hennie Otto @ 80/1 with Corals. lost 1 point 6th last week and he has only been out of the top 20 in two of his last eleven Sunshine Tour events. He has struggled on the European Tour but is a much better player in home events and 80/1 is a very reasonable price. |
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Betting Previews
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