JoBurg Open. A poor quality field of 166, over 2 courses for the first two days, no course form and half the field have no recent form to speak of. Not a great betting medium in other words. A good rule of thumb for these events in South Africa is to back a home player who will be much more comfortable on the heavily grained greens. The West course is the one that will be used 3 times and it is a short par 72, so short hitters should not be inconvenienced, but the big hitters will hold the upper hand on the 7590 yard par 71 East course. Charl Schwartzel is the very short priced favourite, best priced 5/1, which is terrible value even if he is the best player in the field. Perhaps fellow South African Darren Fichardt represents a better betting proposition. He is a proven winner in better events than this, is in good form and is very strong ‘at home’. In his last 10 events in South Africa he has won twice, with a total of five top 5 finishes. At nearly three times the price of the favourite, Fichardt looks worth a modest wager. 1 point e/w Darren Fichardt @ 14/1 with BlueSq, Ladbrokes, Stan James. lost 2 points Sony Open. The quality event this week comes from Waialae in Hawaii. The course, with its wide fairways, suits the big hitters, but the shorter hitters have done well over the years. Hitting the small greens is the key, along with course form and recent form after the holiday lay off is useful. Furyk and Singh have obvious chances but 8/1 and 6/1 respectively are hardly generous and there are a few less famous names who could give us a decent run for our money. 1 point e/w Joe Durant @ 66/1 with SportingOdds, Victor Chandler. lost 2 points This looks a great price for a player whose form at the end of 2006 was outstanding. In his last 5 events he finished 2/6/1/4/3 and he got back into the groove last week with a 16th place in the Mercedes. His greatest strength has always been accuracy to the greens (ranked 6th for GIR in 2006), so the course will suit him and he has had two top 10’s here in the past. He suffered a family bereavement on Boxing Day when his sister in law died suddenly after a party at Durant’s home. It is always hard to judge how players will react after something like this, but often they can find some inspiration and play above themselves. 1 point e/w Stephen Ames @ 40/1 with VCBet, Ladbrokes, BetFred. lost 2 points There is a risk in backing Ames, in as much as he has a dodgy back and his wife’s illness, which has resulted in him pulling out of two events at the end of last season. He played well enough last week, joint leader after rd1 and finishing 11th after average 2nd and 3rd rounds. That should have freshened him up and this is a course that he likes, having finished 14th, 7th and 8th in his last 3 outings. He is class player when he is fully focused and fit, as he showed when winning the Players Championship last season. 0.5 point e/w Bubba Watson @ 125/1 with SportingOdds, BlueSq, BetDirect. lost 1 point Hard to resist this big price on a player who finished 4th on his debut last year. Watson is the longest driver on tour and with the wide fairways he can let rip. He finished strongly last season with rounds of 66 and 65 and is a player who looks likely to win a tour event at some stage. Perhaps holding fire until the first round tee times are known is not a bad idea as he would benefit from an early slot when the wind should be lighter. Match Betting: JoBurg Open 5 points Thomas Aiken to beat Warren Aubery @ 10/11 SkyBet On past form Aiken looks great value to win this having finished ahead of Aubery 11 times in their 12 mutual events in 2006, and the last 10 in a row. Surely that is enough to make him favourite? The truth is that either have been in great form recently, so the stakes are kept modest. lost 5 points |
|
|
Betting Previews
|
|
|