British Masters – The Belfry. A very good quality field for the first time this season as most of the ‘name’ players have returned from their early season efforts to make it on the US tour. That makes life difficult for the punter, comparing a string of missed cuts in the big events on the US tour against a reasonable run off form on the poor quality fields in the European/Asian events. Certainly there are not many of the returning Europeans that have been that successful in America, some bits and pieces of form, but nothing outstanding. The Belfry is a reasonable test of golf and with a lot of water in play and reasonably narrow fairways, it rewards accuracy rather than outright power, but the longer hitters have also done well in the past, so course and current form look the strongest guides, which sadly means having to back players at short odds. The favourites are the favourites for a reason but each one have got reasons good reasons not to back them. Stenson, has the game, the course form and recent form, but is 14/1 really a backable price for a dodgy putter who wins a lot less than he should? Harrington is outstanding at the Belfry, but like Stenson, he is not a prolific winner and 14/1 is no more than a fair price. Cabrera, well see the above comments for him as well. Paul Casey is another who has problems closing the deal, David Howell ditto and he has fitness worries. Darren Clarke is another very infrequent winner who is always poor value, Thomas Bjorn is a sand wedge short of a full set, Montgomerie could do well, but his recent form is not good and he is not the dominant force he once was. We then get into the 2nd division players. Fasth is playing very well but back to back wins are very rare, Poulter is showing signs of his form returning but his record here is only average at best. Westwood is not the player he once was, with poor current and course form, Jimenez is in poor form and Michael Campbell plays less golf than I do. After that we are into the 50/1 zone, so is there anyone in the pack that might have a great week at big odds? 0.5 point e/w Jose Manuel Lara @ 100/1 with Skybet. lost 1 point Lara improved his game over the last 2 or 3 years at 28 years old he has room for more. He has a very solid game reflected in an all round ranking of 54th last year, which has improved to 22nd so far in 2006. He hits it long and straight off the tee which will help on this course on which he has played 3 times making the cut each time, with a best finish of 14th in 2003. He is a better player now than then and his 3rd place in Spain last week (second top 10 in a month) shows that he is in good form. 5 points Nick Dougherty to beat Lee Westwood @ 10/11 with VCbet, Ladbrokes. lost 5 points Westwood has missed his last 3 cuts, but I will grant that one was The Masters, and the other regular US tour events were stronger than the fields that Dougherty has been playing in, but at least he has been playing well, 6 top 10’s and just 1 missed cut from 13 events. Westwood has a poor record at the Belfry, 54/57/mc/27 in the old B&H International while the improved Dougherty could better his 12th here back in 2001. 5 points Niclaus Fasth to beat Thomas Bjorn @10/11 with VCbet, Stan James. won 4.54 points Fasth is in great form and bursting with confidence. On his day he is as good as any in this field and while his course form is only average, he looks in good enough form to expect a top 20 finish. Bjorn is another very good player on his day, but those days are fewer and fewer nowadays. His course record is poor and all those water hazards will play havoc with his fragile mental state. Adding: Byron Nelson Classic. Two factors stand out in this event, the fact that players with good GIR stats do very well and the top 5 payout places are often dominated by big priced outsiders. Last years winner was 200/1 Ted Purdy, with Sean O’Hair second at 250/1, followed by Tway 175/1 and Doug Barron at 200/1. 2004, was won by Garcia 50/1, with the next 4 all at 150/1, 2003 was a rarity in that it went to form with no one over 40/1 in the frame. 2002 saw an 80/1 winner and Ben Crane 2nd at 250/1 while it was 150/1 shot Robert Damron who won in 2002. With that in mind there are 3 players who could continue the trend and at nice odds. 1 point e/w Brett Wetterich @ 100/1 generally available. won 125 points Ranked 8th for GIR, was 18th here last year and has had 2 top 6 finishes in his last 2 events. Looks a huge price. 0.5 point e/w David Branshaw @ 175/1 with Totesport. lost 1 point Corals are nearer the mark at 80/1. Branshaw is 13th for GIR, was 14th here in 2004 and is playing solid golf, making his last 5 cuts and 4 of them inside the top 26. 0.5 point e/w Charles Warren @ 100/1 generally available. lost 1 point 4th in GIR and in good form with a 12th place last week, making 8 of his last 9 cuts and 5 top 25’s. |
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