Golf – USPGA Championship. The last major of the season and the last chance for Tiger to win a major this season. Anyone watching his final round in Ohio last week might have already made their minds up that he is the man to beat this week, I would not disagree. It was vintage Woods and there is no doubt that he was highly motivated going into the fourth round, head to head with Sabbatini who had made the mistake of saying that he believed that Woods was very beatable. Never a good idea to tweak the tail of a Tiger. Certainly Woods is a very strong favourite but at 9/4 it is a no bet for me. That said, any other outright bets are better off made in the ‘without Woods’ markets. 1 point e/w Hunter Mahan w/o Woods @ 50/1 with Stan James. lost 2 points Carrying on with backing Mahan despite a rather weak finish to his tournament last week. He lead after the first round but faded away and a last round 76 took him out of the payout places, but it was another good display and this course will suit him. He is currently ranked first in total driving and rightly so as he is in the top 30 for both driving distance and accuracy. He missed to many fairways last week and hopefully he will realise that using the 3 wood of the tee a few more times is a good idea as the rough here is said to be more penal than last week. If you watched the WGC event at Firestone, you will have seen that the rough just of the fairway and around the greens was very deep. This course will be the same, but the type grass is different and in practice rounds players have commented that the ball nestles down deep every time, making it hard to get out with any great distance or control. Mahan is straight and long off the tee, accurate into the greens and recent history has shown that that is much more important that having great putting stats. There is always the danger that his run of hot form will come to an end but hopefully he can keep it up for another week. 1 point e/w Kenny Perry w/o Woods @ 50/1 with Stan James, Boylesports. lost 2 points Kenny Perry is at the old end of age spectrum compared to Mahan, but his game is very similar. In form (never out of the top 15 in last 6 events), long and straight off the and accurate into the greens. The worry about Perry is that he is 46 years old and the conditions in Ohio this week are going to be very hot indeed with temperatures in the high nineties. He might find this hard to manage, but worth a modest punt none the less. 0.5 point e/w Lucas Glover w/o Woods @ 110/1 with Boylesports lost 1 point Another good driver of the ball, solid iron player and has come into a good run of form. In his last 5 events he has 4 top 12 finishes and a respectable top 30 in The Open. One of the US tours better young players and getting back to something near his best. Adding: 7 points Andres Romero to beat Retief Goosen @ 1.90 on Betfair lost 7 points Can't find this bet anywhere else, but someone seems keen to lay Romero in this tie no bet match up on Betfair. This seems a very good price to me. Romero has won their last 5 H2H'S and by huge margins, BMW by 8 when Goosen MC, by 9 in Scottish Open when Goosen MC, by 7 in the Open, by 11 in European Players Championship and by 14 at Firestone last week. I would have expect the heat loving Argentinian to be a very hot favourite. |
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