Golf - Johnnie Walker Classic.
After the ultra modern American style courses used in the Middle East for the last 3 weeks, the European Tour heads to Australia and a more traditional test of golf. The Vines is a tight course with a lot of dog legs and is usually quite breezy. The premium is on accuracy of the tee and to the green, the big hitters who need space are likely to struggle this weekend while the ‘plotters’ can pick their way round and stay out of trouble.
8 points Peter O’Malley to beat Mark Hensby @ 11/8 with Corals.
won 11 points
Hensby was a good player to follow last season but his form dipped badly in the later part of the season (last 7 events 52/58/42/56/79/39/42). His game is not based on accuracy, outside the top 100 for driving accuracy and GIR in 2005 on the USPGA tour. He has no recent course form and this does not look like the kind of track that will suit his game. O’Malley is one of the straightest hitters in the game (1st for DA on European Tour in 2005 and 3rd for GIR). He had 3 top 20’s here in the Heineken Classic (course uses a different front nine for this event). He got the rust of in Dubai last week, making the cut, and this course will play to his strengths. 11/8 is a great price.
6 points O’Malley to beat Stephen Leaney @ 4/5 with BlueSq.
lost 6 points
Like Hensby, Leaney’s form has collapsed (last 6 events mc/dq/mc/mc/mc/mc) and he missed the cut in 3 of his last 4 visits here. This looks like a mismatch and the stake would have been higher had the odds not been cut.
4 points Michael Campbell to beat Retief Goosen @ 5/4 with ToteSport
lost 4 points
Nothing wrong with Goosen’s from, but this is Campbell’s course. He has won easily on his last two visits and he is a lot straighter of the tee than Goosen, who missed the cut in both his 2 outings in the Heineken.
AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am.
What price a Major winner with 5 top 8 finishes in this event in the last 6 years, and a top 5 finish in his penultimate US Tour event which was also a Pro-Am? 33/1. Mike Weirs’ form is something that is hard to predict, but if you believe in horses for courses then he has to have a great chance and the fact that he handled the latest Pro-Am so well despite going in on the back of 2 missed cuts, suggests that this is his kind of event on courses he loves. Perhaps it is the Californian air that gets him going as he twice won the Nissan Open at Riviera, and of course that top 5 in the recent Bob Hope was also in California.
1 point e/w Mike Weir @ 33/1 BlueSq, Corals, Hills, Ladbrokes.
Won 7.25 points
Match Bets.
5 points Sabbatini to beat Charles Howell @ 5/6 with BetDirect, Stan James
Won 4.17 points
Sabbatini has started 2006 in fine form 2/10/16/20 and has his event form shows 3 top 15 finishes. He has missed his last 2 cuts here but his current form is strong enough to suggest that he is more likely to be back in the top 20 than having Sunday free. Charles Howell continues to disappoint and his 2006 form has him scoring at 1.82 shots per round more than Sabbatini.
7 points Bubba Watson to beat Sean O’Hair @ 10/11 with BlueSq
Lost 7 points
Bubba is the tours longest hitter and these short par 72 courses will suit, especially set up for Pro-Am standards, so his lack of experience of the courses should not be a handicap. O’Hair is having a nightmare start to the season averaging over 75 shots per round ( a massive 5.5 shots a round worse than Watson) and his one outing here last year was only a reasonable 27th, nothing to suggest he is an event expert.
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