Golf. BA-CA Open. Not the quality cast list we have been used to on the European Tour for the last few weeks, in fact this is little more than a Challenge tour event with half a dozen top class players thrown in. Those top class players will no doubt be getting well rewarded for turning up, but with the US Open next week they may be forgiven for having their mind on Winged Foot rather than this B list event. Bjorn heads the field at 10/1 and while he won a couple of weeks ago, he returned to type with a missed cut at Wentworth. Form figures of 3/63/1/MC highlights the nature of the beast, blows hot and cold on the extremes of the temperature range. If you fancy 10/1, just hope that is he is on a hot week. Montgomerie finally showed sings of a return to form in Wales last week but his body language suggested that he is still less than happy with his game. Jimenez followed up a good weekend at Wentworth by missing the cut defending his title in Wales. That is the top 3 in the betting, taking up a fair chunk of the book at best odds of 10/1, 11/1, and 12/1 respectively. The next best, Green, A. Hansen and Jacquelin are hardly giants in the pro game while McGinley is playing very poorly and Lara has missed his last 3 cuts. The bookies have had to resort to making Marcus Brier a 40/1 shot largely because he is Austrian and won a Challenger event here in 2004. His current form suggests that he should be a much bigger price. Of the ‘name’ players perhaps Simon Dyson makes some appeal but he is best backed when playing in Asia and his strike rate does not warrant a 28/1 quote. With the top players making little appeal at the odds it is worth having a few small speculative punts on the players at bigger odds. 0.5 point e/w Martin Erlandsson @ 100/1 with BlueSq, Corals, Hills, Ladbrokes. lost 1 point The Swedes cleaned up on both sides of the Atlantic last week and that will act as spur to their fellow countrymen this week. Erlandsson has a sound all round game and while his current form has not been great (last 3 - 19/MC/43) it is better than most in this field. He was 7th in a Challenger event here in 2003. 0.5 point e/w Marc Warren @100/1 with BetDirect, Coral, Stan James. lost 1 point A fast improving young Scottish pro, Warren has had some good finishes recently, 8th in the Italian Open, 30th in the Irish Open and 18th in the Welsh Open last week. He was first on the Challenger tour OOM last year and while his course form is poor, he is a much improved player since May 2005. He appointed a new coach in June 2005 and went on to win twice as a result. 5 points Henrik Nystrom to beat Marcus Brier @ 11/8 with Corals.
lost 5 points Barclays Classic. 5 points Padraig Harrington to beat Sergio Garcia @ 5/6 with Hills. won 4.54 points I seem to be alone in thinking that Garcia is doomed never to win a major, simply because he is one of the worst putters on tour. On top of that is a suspect temperament and driving that is not very long and not very straight. In fact, if he was not such a great iron player, he would be no more than a journey man pro. Maybe one day he will lose those demons on the putting green and fulfil his potential, but golfers putting usually declines with age, and Sergio is still only 25. He is currently ranked 163rd for putts per GIR on tour and outside the top 100 for driving distance and accuracy. His current form is not good, after a good start to the year he has had only 1 top 10 finish since January, indeed only 2 top 20’s in 8 starts. OK, his course form is very good, which is important at Westchester, but his game is in as bad way as ever and Harrington, another course specialist, looks a good bet to beat him. The Irishman has played here twice, and was 2nd in 2004 and won in 2005, pretty impressive. His current form is much better than Garcia’s (last 4 - 11/14/11/6). He must be fancied to win the event, while Garcia looks set to struggle on his favourite course. 1 point e/w Padraig Harrington outright @ 25/1 with BlueSq, BetDirect, Stan James, ToteSport. lost 2 points |
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