Golf – Italian Open. This looks like a very open Open and having the favourite at 20/1 highlights the point. The course does not seem to favour either the big hitters despite being long at 7283 yards. The shorter hitting more accurate players have done well here in the past which doesn’t help to narrow down the field. The Italian Open has had a reputation for producing first time winners over the years and has often been won by big priced outsiders, but now that the same course has been used for the last four years that trend appears to be declining so the players with some good course and current form should have a better chance to win this than may have been true a few years ago. It is hard to get away from the obvious contenders like Franceso Molinari, Ferandez-Castano, Dougherty, Dredge, Anders Hansen and Andrew McLardy. Anyone of those winning would be no surprise but I will put the curse on three other players. 1 point e/w Alister Forsyth @ 33/1 with Skybet. lost 2 points Formerly no more than a ‘journeyman pro’ Forsyth has hit a patch of very good form. Winning in Madeira is usually no great guide to other course but he followed that up with a 25th in Spain and then very nearly won again in Estoril, losing in a playoff. He missed the cut last week after a horrible first round 78, but a 67 on Friday showed that his game is still very strong. He has decent course form (5/mc/21) and despite the fact that he is not long off the tee he should have a reasonable chance this week. This season seems to be the year of the ‘journeyman pro’ after wins by himself, Peter Lawrie and Damien McGrane. This must give him more confidence that he can go on and win again. 1 point e/w David Lynn @ 40/1 with Totesport. lost 2 points The same could be said for Lynn who is in great form and looks ready to add to his sole tour win. Three top 10’s in last five events makes him a form pick and while his course form is not brilliant (19/21/40/mc) it is not bad enough to suggest he can’t be expected to go well again this week. 0.5 point e/w Oliver Wilson @ 33/1 with Hills, Ladbrokes, Skybet 2nd again! - won 3.65 Another player in great form (8/2/11) and 14th on his course debut last year. There are question marks about his nerve under pressure (six times a runner up as a professional) but there is no doubting his talent. Perhaps he is best backed on the exchanges with the option to lay off at a shorter price if he gets into contention again. 4 points Soren Kjeldsen to beat Robert Karlsson @ 1.95 with Unibet. lost 4 points Karlsson was a very impressive 8th in The Masters last month but his record on this course reads played three, missed cuts three. Unibet have matched him with Mr. Consistency, Soren Kjeldsen who has made his last 8 cuts in a row and six of those were inside the top 21. Kjeldsen has played here four times (48/14/4/mc), beating Karlsson three times. Perhaps Karlsson will be inspired after his performance at Augusta, but he has come here before in great form only to miss the cut. |
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