Alfred Dunhill Championship – Leopard Creek G.C., South Africa. The start of the co-sanctioned European/Sunshine tours ‘South African Swing’. A reasonably tough course with plenty of water hazards that can result in a horrible score from just a couple of bad shots. This event has a sprinkling of ‘star names’ such as Els, Sterne, Clarke and….er, that’s it. The rest are strictly second division but it does offer them a great opportunity to land a valuable win and secure a secure a European Tour card. It is no surprise that since this event became co-sanctioned it has produced many first time winners (eight from the last thirteen) and big priced winners are not uncommon. Of course the better know players dominate the betting market with three time winner, Ernie Els, the 10/3 favourite. I have often banged on about what poor value Els is in any tournament and despite is record he remains a very poor bet. He has won just two stroke play events in the last 2 years, both in weak tournaments like this in South Africa. You could say they if he is going to win, it will be in just this kind of event, but is 10/3 a value bet? That is a matter of each punter to decide and I am sure there will be plenty tipping him up, but he is never a good bet for me. Fellow South African’s Sterne and Schwartzel will be well fancied and at 16/1 and 12/1 respectively they make a little more appeal than the Big Easy. Schwartzel’s course record of 1/2/2 for this event in the last three seasons speaks for its self but even if this a step down in class, his recent form of mc/mc/mc/7/mc/48 is hardly inspiring and 12/1 is on the short side. Sterne is a fine player but he has lost the great form he showed earlier this year, his course form is very ordinary and again his odds are skinny. With so many first time winners and with more and more European based players having experience of playing in South Africa I think it might pay to look for talented, up and coming European based players, two of whom are used to playing in stronger fields than this. 0.5 point e/w Mattias Eliasson @ 150/1 with Totesport. lost 1 point This is just the kind of event that might let Eliasson pick up his first win. He has enough talent to suggest he can win a modest event. He managed four top 10 finishes in a row last year but had to wait for 33 events until his next top 10 in Sweden this August. He finished the season in good form with 21st in Portugal and 11th in Mallorca. His course record is promising, 18th in 2005 and while 52nd last year looks poor, he went into the final round tied for 7th but shot a horrible 82! He shot a round of 65 in 2005 which again shows that he can cut it on the course. 0.5 point Marcel Siem @100/1 with Ladbrokes, Paddy Power, Totesport. lost 1 point Just missed out on keeping his tour card and had a poor 2007. Up to then he was one of the bright young things of European Golf, reaching the top 50 on the Order of Merit in 2004 and 2006. His only tour win came in this event in 2004 (on a different course) and he defended the title with a good 6th on this course in 2005. He is very long off the tee and big hitters have done well here in the past, but he needs to keep the ball out of the water. Accuracy is not his strong point. It is worth a small bet that he is inspired by a return to the event were he broke is duck and that he will be very motivated to make the most of the limited opportunities he will have on the main tour this season. 0.5 point Ross McGowan @ 80/1 with BlueSq. won 9.5 points Turned pro at the end of 2006 and enjoyed a very successful 2007 finishing 2nd on the Challenge Tour, winning twice and runner up on three occasions. Finished tied 15th on his second event on the main tour this season (Master Card Masters in Australia). He has experience of playing in South Africa making the cut in all four events in January/February this year with finishes of 7/11/11/40. Perhaps not as hyped up as Oliver Fisher or Rory McIlroy, but many expect McGowan to become a very successful player. Certainly a lack of European Tour experience didn't stop Alvaro Quiros winning this event last year. 1 point e/w Louis Oosthuizen @ 28/1 generally available. lost 2 points One of the home players who does offer a bit of value. Two time runner up on this course including in this event in 2005. He is another huge driver of the ball and is twice the player on home soil as shown by his 2007 S.A. form figures of 19/1/2/1/1/2. His recent events include a good 11th in the HSBC Champions Tournament and there are not many here in better form. Adding: 5 points Ross McGowan to beat Lee Slattery @ 5/6 with Stan James. lost 5 points Slattery was one of English golfers great young hopes having won the 2004 Challenge Tour but his professional career has been a disappointment. Three top 10's in 2006 suggested he was getting to grips with the game at this level, but 2007 has been another poor year and his last seven events show form figures of mc/59/mc/mc/59/ 56/ mc. He did well to retain his card by finishing 4th at the gruelling Q school two weeks ago. That might put him in a positive frame of mind and he has reasonable event form on this course (23/mc/25) but McGowan has more talent and is in better form. |
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