US Masters. The changes made to Augusta in 2005, especially the lengthening of the layout, has changed the nature of the course. Past Champion Ben Crenshaw summed it up by saying that a lot of the strategic factors have been taken out, “it has become a bombers course”. Of course you need to be able to stay out of trouble and cope with the ultra fast greens, but the short hitters are now at a significant disadvantage. Many of the greens are just not built to take a shot from a 5, 6 or 7 iron and that is what faces the players who are not booming it off the tee. Augusta was a very hard course even before it was lengthened and experience is crucial, it is a real horses for courses track. It has been dominated by the very best players in the world and while you do get big priced golfers getting placed in the top 5, you will find that the winner rarely come outside the top 15 in the world rankings. So, world class players, good course form, big drives, accurate iron play and the ability to cope with the very fast greens are the key ingredients in playing Augusta well. Taking all that into account, it is no surprise that Woods and Mickelson dominate the betting market at 6/4 and 8/1 respectively. Mighty short odds, but with 5 wins in the last 6 years between them, would you want to be a layer of the big two? You can bet the big two at 5/6 to beat the field, and on recent form you can argue that those are big odds! Woods is in good form with two wins already this season, but the very picky punter might point out that he was only 22nd at Bay Hill and didn’t win at Dubai. Mickelson has not looked great in recent weeks, 36th and 23rd for his last two events. However, this is the Masters, this is what the big boys play for and they will be fully primed. I wouldn’t pay a lot of attention to the recent form of these two. 2 points e/w Phil Mickelson @ 8/1 with VCBet, BetFred, Boylesports lost 4 points Woods at 6/4 makes little appeal to me, even if I think he will win. Mickelson was majestic here last year and makes more appeal at 8/1 and baring in mind that he has been placed 1st or 3rd in 5 of the last 6 Masters, he looks a decent e/w bet. 3 points e/w Paul Casey Top GB & Ireland @ 4/1 with VCBet. lost 4.5 points The GB and Irish line up for this Masters looks a bit thin on quality and form. Harrington and Casey (ranked 10th and 14th in the world) have good claims for a high finish this weekend, but outside of these two, it is hard to get excited about any of the rest of this 15 man field. First up you can write off the golden oldies, Lyle, Woosnam and Faldo. Ramsay is an amateur rookie. Ferrie and Dredge are also first timers here and neither are near their best. Westwood is very much a journey man pro these days and his course form is poor (6th in 1999 excepted). Monty has missed his last three Masters cuts and his current form suggests another is very likely. Darren Clarke is out of form. Justin Rose has been laid up with a serious back injury for the past few weeks. Luke Donald hasn’t got the length needed to cope with the 7445 yard course. David Howell has good course form, but he has shown little sign that his game is anywhere good enough this season. Ian Poulter is another possible, he has two top 35 finishes at Augusta and is in reasonable form, but has he got the game to handle this very tough course? I don’t see it. Casey missed the cut here on his last visit in 2005 but that was the year he was Public Enemy No.1 in the USA and his game was in tatters. On his debut he finished a very impressive 6th in 2004 and that is something like he can realistically aim for in 2007. He has the length of the tee to cope with Augusta, is a good iron player into the greens and solid putter. His form in 2007 is good and he certainly has the belief that he is good enough to mix it with the very best. The 4/1 looks a very nice each way bet. 1 point e/w Angel Cabrera Top R.O.W. player @ 33/1 with Ladbrokes. lost 2 points A much more competitive market with the likes of Els, Singh, Goosen and the very consistent Allenby, but Cabrera fits the bill of a big hitter with course form. He has 4 top 15 finishes here in the last 6 years and comes into the event in reasonable current form with back to back top 20’s. Not only is he very long off the tee, he is an excellent iron player. If his putting was in the same class, he would have won a lot more tournaments. 3 points e/w Brett Wetterich Top Debutant @ 11/2 with Skybet (1/4 the odds 1,2,3,4). lost 4.62 points A very big hitter (7th longest on tour) and an accurate iron player, his big weakness is the putter. He comes here in decent form with an 8th and 2nd place in his last 3 tournaments. This guy was slaughtered for his Ryder Cup performance, but you do not get to be ranked 22nd in the world by being a bad player. Perhaps some more bets come Thursday. |
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