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The Masters.

It seems the focus of every preview for this classic sporting event is centred on the fact that the course has been lengthened. So what? The modern golf game is now all about how the new ball and club technology has shrunk the classic courses. Perhaps this week might be a little different despite the hype about the big hitters?

The weather is as big a factor as you will get in golf and in the last few years Augusta has been playing long and soft after pre-tournament wet weather. This year it looks like we will see very different conditions. The forecast is for dry and hot conditions over the 4 days. Firm and fast is alien to many modern US courses but not Augusta. The greens here are legendary for their speed and contours and in the forecast weather they will be verging on the impossible. Experience of the ultra fast greens will be the key to success, not driving distance.

The players with only modest distance of the tee will find their drives bouncing down the fairways quite nicely and those with experience of the course will know that position, patience, accuracy and putting skills will reap rewards. This weekend will not be about all about the big hitters, it will be about those players that can stay out of trouble, hit the greens and be able to putt on marble. Experience tells us that the Masters is not a great event for outsiders but it is a great event for those with good course form, especially around the greens.

5 points Phil Mickelson to win outright @ 13/2 with Hills, Corals, BetFred

won 32.5 points

Mickelson meets all the requirements for a Masters winner. Ranked 1^st for GIR, excellent course form, ranked 3^rd for total putts and if you believe that driving distance is important, he is 29^th for that as well. His form last week was truly awesome and he believes that he is now at his peak. The fact that he has chosen to pack his bag with 2 drivers (one set for fade and one for draw) and ditch is sand wedge shows that he has thought very carefully about how to play the course and is looking for control of the tee, some thing that the market leader lacks. The price may not be much but this is very much a course for short priced winners.

3 points David Howell to be top GB & Ireland player @ 7/2 with VCBet

won 10.5 points

This looks good price in a field of 11 and of that 11 only 4 or 5 have any realistic chance. Donald could win this, but Harrington is out of form and has missed 2 of his last 3 cuts here, Clarke always finds 1 or 2 better than him, Westwood is a shadow of his former self and McGinley is suffering with an allergy problem. The rest have next to no chance.

1 point e/w David Howell to be top European @ 12/1 with Ladbrokes

won 2 points

I was expecting Howell to be joint favourite in this market but Ladbrokes have six players ahead of him, which is bizarre. Howell is one of the best putters in the world these days, he was 11^th on his Masters debut last year and is ranked 6^th for GIR. His current form must be the reason for his price, but his game is not in bad shape, 24^th last week, 38^th at Sawgrass (with an 81 in rd3!) and he should have won the TCL in China but shot a 75 in rd4 to drop to 7^th place. On a course that will reward his game he must have a chance of winning this market. Just look at some of those more fancied in the betting. Garcia, do not make me laugh. On these greens! Stenson, ditto. Harrington’s form is poor, Clarke is just not good enough which leaves Donald and Olazabal as the main rivals. Donald did very well here on his debut, finishing 4^th but his putting is still a big worry. Olazabal is a worthy favourite but he is best backed at bigger price in a different market.

2 points e/w Olazabal in the w/o Big 5 market @ 14/1 with Paddy Power and Bet365

won 5 points

With the record of fancied runners so good at Augusta, this looks the best market in which to back Olazabal, taking out the likely winner Mickelson as well as likely top 5 man Woods as well as Singh and Goosen, both expected to go close. Ollie is a two time winner at Augusta and has got his game into fine shape for this renewal. Twice a runner up in 2006, he was a distant second to Mickelson last week and 7^th at Sawgrass. He is a very fine iron player and can handle these greens as well as anyone. Six top 15 finishes in the last 9 seasons, combined with his good current form suggests that he can go close again this week.

3 points Mike Weir to win group D @ 3/1 with SportingOdds.

won 9.00 points

Weir is a course expert, he won in 2003, m/c in 2004 was 5^th in 2005 and his other 3 all top 30. His form is pretty good in 2006 with two top 5’s and 17^th and 22^nd in his last two events. Darren Clarke has bettered Weir twice in the last 5 years but it is the Canadian who looks more capable of a top 10 finish and you have to wonder how Clarke will cope in the expected high temperatures. Of the others, Appleby has lost his form and has missed 5 of his 9 cuts here. Stenson is making is debut and while he is fine player, his very suspect putting could crumble on the ‘marble staircases’. Westwood form is very up and down these days and apart form his 6^th here in 1999 he has shown little here, missing 2 of his last 3 cuts.