Italian Open. The key to this course appears to be great GIR stats. Short hitters and long hitters have both done well in the past, so it looks like a 2nd shot track and of course good week with the putter always helps. The field is pretty weak, so outsiders should have an opportunity to make the headlines. 1 point e/w Gary Orr @ 50/1 with VCbet, BetDirect, Skybet lost 2 points Currently ranked 7th for GIR (10th for 2005 season), he is a player held back by his less than brilliant putting, but he was 10th here last year and proved his game is hot with a 3rd place last week in Spain 1 point e/w Anthony Wall @ 66/1 with Ladbrokes, Corals, Bet365. lost 2 points Anthony Wall seems to enjoy the Italian Open with 4 top 30 finishes in his four appearances (only two on this course). His game looks in good shape as he was 2nd in the Algarve Open a month ago, his last event. His GIR stats are good rather than outstanding, but he is good putter and has a solid all round game. Adding: 5 points Marcus Frazer to beat Robert Karlsson @ 5/4 with Corals won 6.25 points Marcus Frazer is not an outstanding player, but he has made ten consecutive cuts, 4 of them top 20 finishes, was 28th here last year and is regarded as a good player in poor weather. The conditions this week will be on the cool side with gusty winds on Thursday picking up around noon on Thursday in particular. There is a chance of some showers on Friday and Saturday. An early tee off time on Friday looks to be ideal and Fraser will be in the first group out and hopefully finished before the wind picks up. Karlsson has missed the cut on his two appearances on this course. H e was 10th last week, but that was largely due to a super 63 in rd2. The rest of his 2006 form is only average, just 1 other top 20 finish in 11 starts. He tees off just after 1pm and will have the disadvantage of the more difficult conditions in the afternoon. Their 2006 H2H record is 2 all and 1 tie, but given Karlsson’s course record and poor draw time, Fraser looks a good bet at the odds. 5 points Gary Orr to beat Louis Oosthuizen @ 10/11 with William Hills won 4.54 points Orr looks like a contender this week and his shot accuracy will be a bonus in the poor weather conditions. Oosthuizen on the other hand is not know for his accuracy being ranked 105th for GIR, hitting less than 50% of fairways from the tee and he is no better a putter than Orr. Orr is 3-1 up in H2H’s for 2006 and looks a good call to extend that record. Wachovia Championship. A long, difficult course that requires accuracy off the tee. It is an old farts course, the boring, short hitting steady eddies who are nearer the seniors tour than their first beer. The average age of the 3 winners here is 41, so don’t be put off if your selection looks like he grew up playing with wooden shafted clubs. 0.5 points Kirk Triplett @ 150/1 with BetDirect lost 1 point Kirk fits the bill nicely. Old (43 years) but very straight off the tee and good GIR stats. His putting is pretty respectable as well and I had even forgotten that he has already won this season, the Tuscon Classic back in February. He was 5th here in 2003 and 15th in 2004. 0.5 points e/w Joe Durant @ 150/1 with SportingOdds lost 1 point Right age at 41, fantastically straight from the tee to the green, in form after his 4th place last week and capable of going on a prolonged run off form, as he did back in 2001 winning back to back events. It really would be no surprise to see Durant well up the leader board come Sunday as he showed he can play the course when finishing 11th back in 2003. Adding: 5 points Carlos Franco to beat Luke Donald at 11/8 with Corals. Once again Corals offer the most imaginative match betting opportunities available. Franco looks worth supporting in this match up. On course form he is easy pick, he has beaten Donald on both occasions that both have played this event and he has finished 3rd and 5th in the last 2 seasons. Franco is the stereotypical ‘horses for courses’ player. He has won 4 times on the PGA tour, but only on two courses, and this is another course than he clearly likes. His 18 hole average is nearly 1 stoke better than Donald’s, who is returning after a short break after suffering with illness. Franco comes here is good form, 15th last week after getting into contention but unable to match some of the extremely lower scoring on Sunday. 11/8 is a very acceptable price against the talented, but frankly over-rated Donald. won 6.87 points. |
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