Golf. Italian Open. An event with a tradition of being won by first time winners. Now in its 4th season on the same course, it seems that course form is increasingly important. It rewards both the big hitters and accurate drivers but the key to winning this week looks likely to be hitting GIR and good putting. Bradley Dredge will be many peoples choice, great course form (2/6) and in pretty good current form. He finds a lot of greens in regulation and is a very good putter. The only downsides are his odds of 16/1 and the fact that he is not a prolific winner. Not great value. Anders Hansen is much the same. An outstanding course record (2/2/9 and 3rd in 2003 elsewhere) but no great form in 2007 and another that finds winning difficult. Best odds of 28/1 are reasonable, but not value. 1 point e/w Joyti Randhawa @ 40/1 with VCBet. lost 2 points Runner up last week confirms his return to form and he looks ready to break his European tour duck. His golf in the last three rounds was excellent and if carries this through to this week, he must have a great chance. The big looking price is due to a lack of course form, but he is worth backing on the strength of his current form and talent. He is one of the best players in the field, stroke average ranked 5th, GIR ranked 30th , putts per GIR ranked 19th and at an average 296 yards off the tee, he should make a lot of birdies on the 4 par 5’s. 0.5 point e/w Andrew McLardy @ 50/1 with VCBet. lost 1 point There is nothing particularly outstanding about McLardy’s stats but he has good course form (6/12) and comes here in good current form with second and tenth place finishes in his last two events. 5 points Randhawa to beat McGinley @ 10/11 with Skybet. won 4.54 Neither player has any course form but Randhawa is in better form than McGinley, winning their last two H2H’s by 5 and 6 shots. Wachovia Championship. A very tough course and a severe test of a golfers all round ability from to green and then mastering the big, sloping greens puts a premium on putting. Long at nearly 7500 yards but with narrow fairways and punishing rough, Quail Hollow rewards accuracy rather than out and out distance. The fairways are hard and running so short hitters are not overly punished. Just breaking par is a good result so the winner will have to be patient and be able to cope with the inevitable bogies. 1 point e/w Zach Johnson @ 66/1 generally available lost 2 points A surprising big price about a man who has current form figures of 9/1/6, with that win being The Masters. Johnson’s recent good form has been based on great accuracy from tee to green and solid putting, a perfect game for this course. The reason for the big price must be his poor course record, three missed cuts from 3 starts. It is worth taking a chance that his first Major has lifted his confidence to a new level and that he can now regularly mix it with the ‘big names’. 1 point e/w Jim Furyk @ 25/1 with Stan James, VCBet, Ladbrokes. lost 2 points Last years winner and the previous years runner up is another player with the game to suit the demands of the course. Again the odds are bigger than expected, but his current form is the reason. Furyk has not been in contention since a good run in February but hopefully playing one of his favourite courses will bring out the best in him. 2 points Stephen Leaney to finish in the Top 10@ 12/1 with Stan James. lost 2 points Leaney is in good form, with just 1 horrible round of 78 a couple of weeks ago blotting a very decent run of 17 rounds at par or better. He has some course form with 11th place in 2005 and with his decent all round game he could well grid out another high finish. 2 points e/w Luke Donald Top European @ 4/1 with VCBet, BetFred. lost 4 points Another short but accurate hitter, in very good form, but last weeks second place once again showed that he is not one to be backing for the outright win. The European contingent does not look particularly strong, with only Harrington, Stenson and Poulter looking like possible contenders. Donald looks like an e/w steal in this market. 5 points Singh to beat Mickelson @ 1.95 (tie no bet) with Centrebet. lost 5 points (well done VJ, a nice treble bogey on the last, git) Mickelson did better than I expected in last weeks Byron Nelson, but a close look at his stats show that his game from tee to green was not great and it was his scrambling skills around the green that allowed such a good result. Singh is generally better from tee to green, but his weakness is on the greens. On this tough course, I suspect Mickelson will find more trouble than lat week, while Singh can continue his recent strong run of form on a course on which he has won and been runner up. |
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