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Golf – Estoril Open.

For the third week in a row we have a shortish course at 6894 yards (par 71) so the short hitters have a chance. This will be second time the full tour has used this venue, a spectacular mix of woodland and links styles. Being close to the Atlantic, wind can play a major roll but the forecast is for good weather and it should be no more than breezy. The course is not unlike last weeks venue in terms of  keeping the ball on the fairways and being accurate into the greens. Thomas Levet was the winner last week, beating the very accurate Oliver Fisher in a play off. In fact four of the top 6 were ranked 6^th or better for GIR stats and six of the top 7 ranked 15^th or better for putts per GIR. Driving distance and accuracy was not so important and on another sub 7000 yard course, the form of last week should be a decent guide.

1 point e/w Joost Luiten @ 50/1 generally available. – NON RUNNER.

Slightly disappointing last week having moved into contention in round 2, but his game remains in good shape and his accuracy and good putting will win him tournaments. He was second in the Dutch Open last year which suggests he likes the links style of golf and the woodland section should hold no fears either. He has no course form which is a negative, but the price is good for a quality player on the up.

1 point e/w Marcus Brier @ 33/1 generally available.

MC - Lost 2 points

The little Austrian has won twice on tour and finished 32^nd on the OOM in 2007, including a twelfth in the Open Championship, so he knows who to win and is now an accomplished tournament professional. His GIR stats are not great but he hit 76% of fairways last week when finishing 8^th in Spain last week. That in turn was on the back of a 15^th place finish on another short course in Madeira so there is nothing wrong with his form and on a short course this excellent putter could be a potential winner. He has made the cut twice here and shot a very impressive 65 on his opening round in 2005 and he is a better player now.

1 point e/w Michael Jonzon @ 100/1 with Coral.

Lost 2 points

A winner in Portugal in 1997 (on a course at which he was 17^th the previous season) the Swede hit form with a 6^th place finish last week on a course on which he was 4^th in 2007. He could well be a player who is inspired by good previous course form. If so he could have another high finish this week as he was 7^th here last year. The fact that he has won in Portugal is another positive.

0.5 point e/w Alvaro Velasco @ 100/1 Betfred, Sportingbet.

MC - Lost 1 point

Only turned pro in 2005 and this is his first year on the main tour. So far he has made five cuts from eight events and in the last two weeks he has finished 5^th and 10^th. He has a good record in windy conditions and has played well in his Portuguese events to date. A very strong second shot game and long off the tee, perhaps this young Spaniard can follow in the footsteps of fellow countryman Pablo Martin and take debut win on this course.

4 points Robert Jan Derksen to beat John Bickerton @ 9/10 with Bet365

won +3.6 points

Bickerton’s  season has been very hit and miss so far. A win in South Africa and a 5^th in Madeira two weeks ago (a course on which he has an excellent record). However those two highlights apart he has four missed cuts, a 39^th and 49^th. His course form here is poor 51^st and 54^th. Derksen is a consistent cut maker these days, seven form eight this season. He is 4-1 up on the H2H’s with Bickerton this season and looks decent value to beat him again.