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Golf. FBR Open. The stats of past winners his course is not the greatest test of skill, more of a grip it ‘n’ rip it track that basically comes down to a putting competition. The event pulls in massive crowds and it the venue plays to those galleries, giving the boozed up punter what they want, massive drives, lots of birdies and plenty of beer. 0.5 point e/w Charles Warren @ 100/1 Boylesports (e/w places top 6). lost 1 point Big priced outsiders often get in the frame in this event and Warren fits the bill in terms of being a big hitter who has a hot putter. Putting is the one part of his game that has held him back, but in his 2 events so far this year he averaging 1.70 putts per GIR. If he can keep that up, a win in 2007 looks more than likely as the rest of his game is largely strong. It’s early days in 2007, but Warren is number 1 in the all round rankings. He was 8th here in 2005 (his first tour top 10) and was 6th in the recent Bob Hope. 6 points Steve Stricker to beat Mike Weir @ 10/11 with Boylesports. lost 6 points Stricker missed the cut last week, the only plip on an otherwise excellent run of form (previous 6 events all top 12 finishes). He is not massively long off the tee, but he is a fine putter, ranked 5th in 2007 and 6th for the 2006 season. He has some reasonable course form under his belt (5 top 25 finishes between ’98 and 2003). Given that his form in 2006 and going into 2007 is his best ever, a top 20 finish seems a reasonable expectation. Weir has shown no great form since the USPGA and it seems that the former Masters Champion saves his best golf for the Majors. Since the April 2006 he has made just 2 top 20 finishes outside of the Majors. He makes plenty of cuts but his once great putting isn’t quite what it was, and despite some good form here in the past (3 top 10’s) but he has not broken 71 in his last 6 rounds on the course. 5 points Stewart Cink to beat Justin Rose @ 10/11 with Boylesports lost 5 points Cink may not win often, but he is the steady type who makes for good match betting material. His recent form is good. He missed the cut at the Sony in Hawaii, but that was his only finish outside the top 25 in his last 10 starts. Course form is good as well, with 6 top 15 finishes from his last 8 visits. He dominated Rose last year winning 13 of their 15 H2H’s and beat him easily last week. Rose had shown some very strong recent form up to last week and he may bounce back, but blowing a winning chance (again!) in the Bob Hope may well have knocked his confidence badly, hence his 51st place finish last week. Dubai Desert Classic. Once again the quality event this week is on the European Tour, with the all conquering Tiger Woods making a rare appearance. A big crowd puller he may be, but he does tend to kill the outright betting markets, unless you like taking 11/8 in a pretty hot event. Els is coming back to something nearer his best and has a fantastic event record, but enough to beat the rampant Woods? Neither are for me, but both are hard to oppose. 1 point e/w Graeme McDowell (w/o Woods and Els) @ 50/1 with Totesport lost 2 points McDowell was very impressive last week and the confidence has returned to his game since turning his back on the US Tour and changing his coach. It is easy to forget that he has won twice on the European Tour and was ranked 6th on the OOM in 2004. He was expected to keep on improving, but his attempt to break into the American tour was a failure and his game suffered. But for a slow start last week he could well have won (last 3 rounds 68/68/67) and despite a terrible course record of MCx2, looks a very big price in this market without the ‘big two’. 5 points Johan Edfors to beat Thomas Bjorn @ 10/11 with Boylesports. lost 5 points We successfully opposed Edfors last week, but he played some good golf and finished a respectable 27th, definite signs that his game is coming back to the boil. This Dubai course, with wide fairways and big flat greens is likely to suit him (supported by the fact he finished 13th last year) and he looks a stronger player than the fading Bjorn. The once Great Dane enjoyed perhaps his greatest win here in 2001 when he went head to head with Woods and came out on top. However his recent Dubai performances are not great (last 3 mc/22/47). His recent form is equally uninspiring, with nothing of note since a 13th place in Germany in September (when desperate to qualify for the Ryder Cup Team). He is making plenty of cuts but finishing well down the field.
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