Golf. 23/02/2007 - World Match Play - Rd3 Matches. Round 3 Match Bets. I fancied Baddeley to do well this week, but today he comes up against Stenson, who was outstanding against Choi yesterday, 7 under for the round. Baddeley showed good fighting spirit against Donald, coming from 3 down with 6 to play to win on the 18th, but in neither of his two matches as he really burnt up the course, more that his opponents have let him off the hook. If Stenson repeats his form of yesterday, he should win this comfortably, but it is match play and Baddeley is still dangerous. No bet. Tiger Woods can see off O’Hern which should result in a mouth watering clash with Stenson in Rd4. The worst tie of the RD2 was Harrington vs. Cink, with the American ‘winning’ but shooting level par, a very poor score on this course. Harrington got off to a terrible start, 4 over after 5 holes and it was a sign of Cinks mediocrity that this game went to the 18th hole. Today Cink faces Ames, who has had a poor start to the season, but hammered Karlsson 8&7 in Rd1 and beat VJ Singh on the 19th hole in Rd2, going 11 under for the 27 holes he has played. Ames is the favourite in my eyes, but the bookies have him the outsider of two. 5 points Ames to beat Cink @ 2.15 with Pinnacle won 5.75 points Our outright selection, David Toms, moved comfortably into the third round and faces Chad Campbell, surprise winner vs. Furyk yesterday. Or perhaps not, as Furyk has a poor event record, but Campbell played a very good round, 7 under, to take the win on the 19th. If he can keep that up, Toms will do well to progress. I was considering a saver by backing Campbell to win this at 2.40, but Campbell has had two very hard games and might just be getting a little battle weary, whereas Toms has never been behind, taking early leads and controlling his opponents. His wins to matches played ratio is second only to Woods in this event and he should progress. The other matches who too close to call. Ogilvy is making a very good defence of his title, but he is up against the very confident Fasth, victor over Goosen yesterday. Casey should see off Micheel, but the American has played well and clearly enjoys match play, while Casey struggled to beat the out of form Weir in Rd1 and came up against Monty in Rd2, a player against whom he has a great winning record. Rose was very good against both Michael Campbell and Mickelson, but now faces fellow bean pole Charles Howell. Howell is very hot at the moment and should be too good for Rose, but too close for betting purposes. Poulter and Immelman looks equally hard to call. 22/02/2007 - World Match Play – Rd2 Matches. Sadly the double went down in Round 1, with Davis Love being one of the top seeds to go out. A poor day with the putter was to blame rather than Crane playing especially well (1 under par for 17). The other selection, Toms made easy work of Oberholser and was 5 under for 14 holes played, very good golf in other words. I take Toms to beat Crane this evening. 5 points Toms to beat Crane @ 1.63 with Pinnacle. won 3.15 points Bradley Dredge was chief giant killer yesterday, beating Els by an impressive 4&2, but in truth it was Els playing poorly rather than Dredge burning up the course. He was 2 under 16 holes, not really better than a ‘par’ score for these guys on this course, in perfect conditions. Poulter disposed of my dark horse selection, Bart Bryant, and played well in the process, 5 under for 14 holes. 5 points Poulter to beat Dredge @ 1.67 with Stan James, Totesport, VCBet. won 3.33 points 20/02/2007 Accenture World Match Play Championship. A very hard event to predict the winner. The match play format really does make life difficult for the favourites, the best golfers don’t always win, as past winners like Kevin Sutherland, Jeff Maggert and Steve Stricker prove. A brand new venue muddies the water still further. On the other hand, we have Woods as two time winner, Love III a two time runner up and Toms a winner in 2005, proving that the cream can rise to the top. So what to do, back a ‘name’ or take a gamble on an outsider? The Bobby Jones Quarter. Tiger wood is the clear favourite for the tournament, but he has not been given an easy draw. First up he faces JJ Henry, a late replacement for Charl Schwartzel. Henry was impressive in the Ryder Cup and claims to be very keen on match play golf. There is no pressure on him and he can just go out and give it his best shot, which is unlikely to be good enough. Next up for Woods is likely to be the in form Robert Allenby. Slim Bob made it 4 top 10’s in row on Sunday and took Tiger to the 18th hole in this event last year. Its tough for Allenby that he has the same draw again, but Woods would have liked an easier RD2 match up, this is no sure win. From the bottom half of the draw we have the in form Jimenez, Baddeley and Stenson. Baddeley will love playing back in Arizona, the scene of his recent win and where he played his college golf. Stenson is in great form and has become one of the finest players in the world and one who believes that he belongs in the top bracket. His win in a top class field in Dubai will have boosted his confidence no end. Tiger has his work cut out every step of the way just to get to the semi finals and at short odds, he makes no betting appeal whatsoever. I have to go for Stenson as the value call in this quarter, but don’t discount Baddeley. The Ben Hogan Quarter. Mickelson looks to have an easier draw than Woods. He has great current form and loves playing in Arizona. Garcia could give him a game in RD3, but this is not the Ryder Cup and you have to fancy that the Spaniards poor putting will be his downfall yet again. Els is supposed to be his biggest threat but I can see Bart Bryant being a dark horse, seeing off Els who has never played well in this event, and facing Mickelson in RD4. Bryant’s steady golf will make him hard to beat in match play, but he is unlikely to score enough birdies to go all the way. DiMarco loves this format and he may well be Mickelson’s opponent for a place in the semis if he can get past Bryant. Hard to oppose Lefty in this quarter. The Gary Player Quarter. Davis Love and David Toms can both be fancied for outright victory based on their event form, but they are drawn to meet in RD2 having been given easy 1st round draws against Crane and Oberholser respectively. I will go for Toms over Love as his Arizona form is better, but it is a close call. Jim Furyk should meet Toms/Love in RD3 but Furyk has never done well in the event, leaving Toms/Love likely to meet Harrington or VJ Singh for a place in the semis. Toms is my pick, but this not an easy quarter. The Sam Snead Quarter. This looks the weakest quarter and should be between Adam Scott and Retief Goosen. Casey has terrible event form, Weir is out of form, Monty is hardly in his prime anymore, defending Champion Ogilvy is not in great form and only Woods has successfully defended the title before. Both Goosen and Scott had low key performances in last weeks Nissan, but no doubt both will be up for this WGC event. I have to side with Goosen who strikes me as the tougher competitor, has decent Arizona form and on this ‘linksy’ type of course, he should go well. If the crystal ball is working correctly (and it has to be a huge if in this format), I can see the semi finals being Stenson vs. Mickelson and Goosen vs. Toms. The two dark horses who could surprise are Baddeley, not short on confidence and will like being ‘at home’ in Arizona, and Bryant, in form and the kind of grinder in the mould of past winners Stricker and Maggert. 1 point e/w David Toms @ 33/1 with BlueSq, Ladbrokes, SportingOdds. 0.5 point e/w Bart Bryant @ 125/1 with UKBetting lost 1 point Sorry, due to other commitments, no other bets are ready today. Perhaps some later, but if not check back to this page over the next few days as their may be some match bets and outrights as the Tournament progresses. Adding: 5 point double Rd1 match bets, Toms and Love to win @ 2.15 with Unibet lost 5 points I rarely recommend multiple bets, but Love and Toms look very strong in both their opening games. Oberholser is suffering with a back injury and probably wouldn't be playing if it was not for the status of the event. He has played one competitive round in 2007, before withdrawing with his injury. Toms really should win this with something in hand. Love faces Ben Crane, a good enough player, but he has started 2007 in very poor form with 2 missed cuts and not yet broken 71. He has always played poorly in Arizona and with Love an event expert and a great match player, surely he can win this. Maybe more Wednesday afternoon before they tee off. |
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