Cricket – The Ashes. England’s victory over Australia in the summer of 2005 breathed new life into a sporting rivalry that had become about as one sided as the Ryder Cup used to be before the Europeans joined the game. From being a dead duck, the Ryder Cup became the biggest sporting event outside of the World Cup and Olympics. Flintoff and the boys have made cricket the new football, but if you listen to the pundits, that win was a flash in the pan, normal service will be resumed and the Aussies will stroll to an easy victory. On home soil, the world number 1 team are very hard to beat and this England team is not the same one that won in 2005, but they are still a formidable outfit with a few individuals who can win matches. Kevin Pietersen’s explosive batting will be etched on the Aussies memories for a long time. He took them apart at the Oval and is a player who has no fear of Shane Warne, the key bowler in the Australian attack. Flintoff, a true world class all rounder is a rare beast, a Pom the Aussies respect, with good reason, and in Monty Panesar, England finally look to have found a spinner who will scare the opposition, bowl plenty and take wickets. Sadly for England, there are just as many negatives as positives. Injuries and illness has removed Trescothick, Vaughan and Simon Jones. Giles and Flintoff are coming back after surgery, while Harmison and Bell are both carrying injuries. History is against England as they have not won a series in Australia since 1988, but then again I am reminded of the Ryder Cup, things can change. The English bowling attack is good enough to bowl out Australia, though Jones is a big loss. Jimmy Anderson looks to be improving and might just surprise a few of his doubters. Harmison is a worry however. A key player if England are to win, he is carrying a side strain and his form in the warm up games was not convincing. On the positive side, the Aussie wickets will suit him and the fast and bouncy Gabba pitch is made for him. If he gets into a good rhythm in the first test, Australia will not be happy. Flintoff, Hoggard and Panesar will put pressure on any batsman and take wickets. The Australians are guilty (as always) of being overly confident, 5-0 is the expected margin of victory, but that was supposed to be the result in 2005, was it not? The fact is that Australia rarely whitewash England and despite the notable absentees in the English squad, this is a far better test match team than has played Down Under for a long time. The home side looks strong, but some key players are getting a bit long in the tooth, even being dubbed ‘Dad’s Army’ by the press. A gruelling 5 test series my just result in a few of these old men pulling up lame. Langer is returning after injury and he will be put under great pressure from the English pace bowlers on a fast and bouncy Gabba wicket. Damien Martyn was nailed by England in 2005 and if Harmison is fired up, he will get nailed again. Skipper Ponting is vulnerable at the start of his innings. All rounder Watson will miss the first test due to injury and keeper Gilchirst is not the batsman he once was. The man in form is Hussey, having been overlooked for years, he has finally got his test match break and has reached 1000 runs in the fastest ever time. In the bowling department McGrath is back after a long lay off and he has lost a lot of his old pace, if none of his cockiness. Lee is fit but he his wickets tend to cost a lot of runs, Tait is another who is known to be guilty of inaccuracy. Clark looked very good in South Africa and may end up being the best of the rest after the truly brilliant Shane Warne. In the bowling departments, there is not much between the two sides and it seems the series will be won and lost by the batting. This is where England might just be too weak. If they had a fully fit and in form Vaughan and Trescothick in the line ups, then the teams would look very evenly matched, but with Collingwood and Bell in place instead, it places a lot off responsibility on Strauss (who can’t play Warne), Flintoff (rusty after injury) and Pietersen. The problem with Pietersen is that he can get himself out as often as the bowlers get him out. He needs to be patient, something that does not come naturally to him. That said, he is the man for the big occasion and when he does put down roots at the crease, he will score big. The Australians have to be made favourites for the series but at odds of 1/5 represent poor value. England are tempting for trading on Betfair at 9.6, but the best bet looks to be for England to win a test match, which they have managed for the last 7 series against the Aussies. Test Match Series bets: 6 points England to win a test @ 10/11 with SportingOdds. Lost 6 points 3 points Kevin Pietersen to be top England batsman @ 5/2 with ToteSport Won 7.5 points 1 point Monty Panesar to be top England bowler @ 5/1 with ToteSport. Lost 1 point 0.25 point Buy Hussey series runs at 370 with SportingIndex Won 22 points 1st Test Match – The Gabba, Brisbane. 4 points Collingwood not to score a 50 in either innings in the 1st Test @ 1.92 with Unibet. Lost 4 points Collingwood has a decent average of 41 in test cricket, but in 28 innings he has only made three 50’s. In this most difficult of series, those stats suggest 1.92 is way to big. |
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