Cricket – The Ashes, 3rd Test. The 2nd Test was one of the most remarkable games you will ever see. It is still something of a mystery as to how England could go from 551 declared in their first innings, to actually losing the game. It was classic Shane Warne who dismantled England in their 2nd innings, and I’m afraid it was a classic English capitulation. Think back to the third day of that Test and how the Aussie press was tearing into their team after Collingwood and Pietersen had humiliated the Australian bowling. Worst ever figures for the mighty Warne and McGrath and Australia out to 40/1+ on the exchanges. But still England lost. Just like the bad old days that many thought were behind them. So what to make of the 3rd Test? Surely England are dead and buried now, if they cannot even get a draw from such a massive 1st innings advantage, there is little hope of 1 win never mind 3. On the plus side, they have shown that their batsmen can inflict serious damage on Australia, so long as the pitch isn’t turning. The Perth pitch used to be the fastest and bounciest in the world, but like so many pitches around the world these days, has been tamed to ensure at least 4 days play and of course more tickets sold. England’s chief tormenter, Shane Warne, has never done that well in Perth, it has never been much of a spinners pitch. This sounds like good news for England’s batsmen as does the fact he is carrying an elbow injury that should reduce the number of overs bowled. With the pitch expected to be another At this stage we know the Australian team has only one change, Damian Martyn has retired, Hussey moves up to number 4, with all rounder Andrew Symonds coming in. The England selectors will leave their choice to the last minute but it seems they have little to think about. Clearly Flintoff and Fletcher are loyal to the players who have played in the first two games and the only question is whether to play Panesar, and if so, who to drop. For 99.9% percent of the cricketing world, playing Panesar is a no brainer, but the choice of who to drop is harder. England has never looked close to bowling out Australia twice. Panesar will help, but he will need to be exceptional if the likes of Harmison, Anderson and Giles continue to be so ineffective. Harmison will not be dropped (Flitoff’s best mate) and the word is that Anderson will again be preferred to Mahmood. So, it looks like the same old debate again, Panesar for Giles. So far Giles has been preferred as he is supposed to be a better batsman and fielder. Well perhaps his figures of 103 for 1 (and dropped Ponting on 37) and a second innings duck might dent that reputation. Panesar must play, but with Fletcher and Flintoff being so stubborn, I wouldn’t want to bet on it. In the preview for the 2nd Test I suggested that if England won the toss Australia would be a good lay at around 1.60, and so it proved. With the pitches being so batsman friendly, the team batting first really should be setting a big score. Again, if England win the toss, their batsmen should be able to rack up a big score and that makes the draw likely to be favourite by the end of day 2, if not before. If Australia win the toss, they too will set a big total, but the market will expect that to lead to another Aussie win and the draw odds may only shrink a little. The best course of action is once again to wait until after the toss before betting, and laying Australia on the exchanges at around the 1.65 mark. The pitches have been offering too much assistance to the batsmen. The games played there this season have seen big scores being made and even in England’s two day warm up game here a couple of days ago, both sides scored over 300. It is hard to see England winning, but for 4 of the 5 days in Adelaide, England were at the very least, a match for Australia. With Panesar in for Giles they should be stronger and so long as they bat first they can deny Australia a third win. 10 point lay of Australia at 1.65 (if England win the toss). Australia won the toss, No bet. The WACA is Michael Husseys home ground and he has been batting very well so far, with 288 from 3 innings. Only Ponting has outscored him in the Aussie team and Hussey looks worth a punt at 11/2 compared to Ponting’s 3/1. 2 points Hussey to be top Australian 1st innings batsman @ 11/2 with Boylesports Won 11 points |
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