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Golf – Dubai Desert Classic.

Surely the most bizarre looking golf betting market ever. There are plenty of bookies going odds on Tiger Woods, that in a field of 120 players, many of whom are pretty useful. Such is the form of Woods these days that the odds on offer have to be looked at seriously. It might actually be true to say that evens is a value price based on the simple fact that he has won five of his last six tour events. His game has never been better and this is a course that will not be too harsh on his occasionally erratic driving. Need the others even bother turning up? Perhaps there is a line of thought that gives the ordinary mortals in the field some hope, and that is his record outside of the USA.

It is true to say that many of the top US tour pros rarely venture outside The States with the exception of The Open and perhaps the WGC events (big money end of season jollies excepted). Woods is not one of them and he makes a point of playing at least a few events on other tours (admittedly he will be ‘encouraged’ and very well recompensed by his sponsors and event organisers). History shows that he is not quite the un-opposable force that he is in his home country. In his last ten ‘away’ tour events his record is 9/1/1/1/1/1/1/2/3/12. Still mighty impressive, but he hasn’t won his last three away events and one of those was here last year when he bettered by Stenson and Els. In fact his course form reads 2/5/1/3 and his victory was greatly helped by Richard Green chucking away a great winning opportunity and Els sticking his ball in the water in the playoff.

Perhaps the fact that Tiger only plays in Europe two or three times a year means that the players here are not sick of the sight of him. They do not have to put up with him dominating them year after year. Sure they know he is the best in the world, but like plucky underdogs, they will relish the opportunity to try and beat him. Just having Tiger in the field will make all the other players raise their game and they know he can be beaten on this course. The weather forecast for Friday is for very strong winds and rain and even the Tiger can be made to look human in what are expected to be very difficult conditions. It is also likely that the greens will not be cut as short as normal to prevent the ball  moving on the putting surface and slower greens than he is used to will be another hurdle for Woods to overcome.

Having said all that, I would not be in any great rush to lay him at even money, but I also cannot get excited about the thought of backing any golfer at that price. There are plenty of quality players in the field and anyone who saw Adam Scott shooting 61 on Sunday will know that there are other players in the world who can play like Tiger on their best days. The problem is that Tiger plays at such a high level almost all the time and if he doesn’t win this week, there will not be many in front of him. With this column’s record of picking three consecutive runners up, perhaps I could put the mockers on him by making him a selection this week but I think we should look around for some bigger odds.

Ernie Els has a fantastic course record with two wins and never out of the top three, but his Els still the player he was? Ever since his knee injury a couple of years ago he has struggled to play to his past level and has just one win in the last two years. 12/1 third favourite? Do me a favour. He will be thereabouts but you have to expect he will find one or two better than him in any event these days, and that is without Woods in the field.

Henrik Stenson did nothing wrong last week and he is a form pick to be the most likely to defy the mighty Woods, just as he did has year. His course form in the last two seasons reads 7^th/1^st and now that he is back to his best you have to expect another high finish. The only downside is the price, only 11/1, which is lower than last week when there was no Mr. T. Woods in the field.

Lee Westwood continues his incredible run of good form which now shows nine top 6 finishes from his last ten events. The only thing that has prevented him winning in the last two weeks has been his putting which has not been at the level of the rest of his game. Perhaps after two weeks playing on these slower than average greens he will sink a few more putts. That is all he needs to convert being in contention to actual wins. He is playing every bit as well as Stenson and now that he has rededicated himself to the game Westwood is one of the finest players in the world and will relish the opportunity to measure himself against the worlds number 1.

1 point e/w Lee Westwood @ 16/1 Stan James, Ladbrokes, BetDirect.

lost 2 points

Westwood is one of the few players in the field with the experience and confidence to beat Woods but for most in this field, going head to head with the great man might just get them a bit tight, much like Richard Green a few years back. Perhaps when looking for outsiders it is better to play in the ‘without Woods’ market.

Johan Edfors caught the eye last week and I was tempted to go for the big hitting Dubai resident. He has good course form into the bargain but on closer inspection Edfors record of following up one good performance with another is virtually non existent. Consistent he is not. David Howell finally looks to have got over his many injuries and if he can stay fit he will be a player to follow this season. I will leave him this week as his tee to green stats are still not great but once those stats start to improve he will be worth a punt as his short game is truly world class.

Young Irish prodigy Rory McIlroy comes to this event for the third year in a row, despite only being 18 years old. This will be one of the very few courses on tour that he will know well and I suspect he will have put in some practice on the course when in spent a couple of weeks in Dubai at the end of last season. He played well on his seasonal debut in Abu Dhabi, finishing 11^th and improving with each round. Last week he played himself into contention for a top 5 finish only to start his final round with three consecutive bogies on a day that the leaders were having a birdie fest. Perhaps he is still too young to be expecting tour wins but there is no doubt that he is one of the finest young players on the planet and he will win plenty of titles in the coming years. With his experience of the course and the fact that his sporting hero Tiger Woods is playing, I expect McIlroy to be trying very hard this week and if he can improve his accuracy to the greens, he can have a high finish.

2 points Rory McIlroy to finish in the top 10 @ 11/2 with Bet Direct, Stan James.

lost 2 points