Mallorca Classic. At last a familiar course, the shortish but very difficult Pula course. Accuracy is at a premium, but the bigger drivers can also do well. Experience of the course is not vital, as Fasth’s win last season proved, but he has the kind of game that suits tight difficult course. It is certainly a big plus to have good course form and a game based on accuracy. Niclas Fasth ticks all the right boxes, except the one that says value. Only 10/1 best price is not good enough and he may be an option later in the tournament. Garcia has a fine course record (1/2/2) but at 5/1, the bookies are not handing out any early Christmas presents. It is interesting that he has finished second in his last five events played in Spain, a touch of seconditis that makes 5/1 look very much on the skinny side. Perhaps there may be some value elsewhere. 1 point e/w Robert Jan Derksen @ 33/1 with BlueSq, VCBet, Hills. 3rd - won 7.25 points Has course finishes of 8th and 11th under his belt and has won on the very similar Santo da Sierra course on the island of Madeira. A good driver off the tee (69% fairways hit), good GIR stats (70%) making him 12th in the shot accuracy stats. He has the game for the course, is proven tour winner and come here in decent form (last 3 events 25/23/12). 0.5 point Thomas Levet to win @ 90.0 with Unibet, 0.5 point to place @ 23.00 with Totesport. lost 1 point Levet has no course form, but like Fasth last year, has the accurate game that is required for this course. His combined driving accuracy and GIR make him 6th most accurate player on the European Tour and while he missed the cut in Portugal last week, his recent form is encouraging with 3rd in the KLM Open followed by 9th at Gleneagles. His big weakness is with the putter hence the small stakes. 0.5 point e/w Benn Barham @ 80/1 generally available. lost 1 point His course form is very good with finishes of 5th and 8th. Current form is very hit and miss but 11th in the British Masters and 7th in Madrid 2 weeks ago does offer up hope that he came be in with a chance this week. 4 points Robert Jan Derksen to beat Philip Archer @ 2.00 with Centrebet won 4 points Not much between these two on recent form, but Derksen’s course form is much better, by nearly 2 shots per round. Evens looks too big a price. |
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