The Open Championship – Carnoustie. Return to Car-Nasty……or maybe not, as the course has been made easier this time round, for fear of upsetting the poor dears. Wider fairways, less rough and what there is not that fierce. What next, bigger holes? The weather looks set to be fairly kind as well. The early forecasts had predicted wind and rain, but it now looks like cloudy but mostly dry and a stiff breeze at most. With the wet summer, the course will be very green and a lot less ‘linksy’ than would be expected at this time of year. The greens are also softer than normal and at just 10.5 on the stimp-meter, the course really needs the wind to blow to prevent these pros shooting some low scores. 1 point e/w Niclas Fasth @ 40/1 with Hills, VCBet, Stan James. Lost 2 points Very much at the top of his game right now, full of confidence and odds on to do more fist pumps than Tiger Woods. His last 4 events have seen finishes of 8/4/1/2. Fourth place in the US Open shows that he is perfectly capable of competing at the very highest level and I fancy him to put in the kind of performance that saw him runner up to Duval in the 2001 Open. 6 points Niclas Fasth to beat Retief Goosen @ 10/11 with Ladbrokes. lost 6 points The Magic Sign look to be taking a risk on this match up. The very in form Fasth vs. the very out of form Goosen. I fancy Fasth to be competing for the win this week and while Goosen as a very respectable Open record (six top 10 finishes) his recent form is really very poor. Since his runner up spot in The Masters, he has gone downhill and last weeks missed cut was his fourth in five events. I can’t see how he is suddenly going to find the magic in the few days between Loch Lomond and Carnoustie. 4 points Richard Sterne to finish in the top 20 @ 3/1 with Skybet lost 4 points Sterne continues this great run of form. In his last 10 events he has 8 top 5 finishes, including two wins. He has only played one Open before and missed the cut, but he is only 25 and improving all the time. He has played in The Dunhill Links Championship and shot some low scores at Carnoustie (74, 71, 66, 65) and while this will be a harder set up, it is a record that stands up well against most in this field. 4 points Richard Sterne to beat Luke Donald 11/10 with Hills. lost 4 points Donald maybe as English as Fish and Chips, but his golf is as American as Apple Pie. He just does like links golf and his Open record is 5 missed cuts and two finishes of 52nd and 35th. His current form is reasonable but inconsistent and I wouldn’t get too excited about his never in contention 4th in last weeks Scottish Open as that was played on the American style of course that he likes. 2 points Hunter Mahan to finish in the Top 20 @ 9/2 with Skybet. Won 9 points Very good form in the States with form figures of 17/13/1/8 with the 13th in the US Open just as impressive as his win the following week. He has played in two previous Opens and in his current form he should be hopeful of bettering his past finishes of 36th and 26th. He is in the best form of his life and was nearly an outright selection at 200/1. A top 20 finish looks realistic to me. 2 points Darren Clarke to be Top Irish Player @ 4/1 with SportingOdds. Lost 2 points Worth taking a small risk that his closing round of 66 at Loch Lomond is a sign that The Dazzler is coming out of the doldrums at last. It was reported that he discovered that the shafts on his irons were not stiff enough and he had them changed a couple of weeks ago and is delighted with the results. He is a very fine links golfer and at the top of his game he could be fancied to win, but it is hard to see him being fully competitive just yet. Harrington is the red hot favourite to with this market but his Open record is patchy. Two top 5 finishes show what he can do but out side of that his record is only fair and he has missed the cut for the last two years. Graeme McDowell is another contender and is coming back to form at just the right time, but perhaps a resurgent Clarke will be ‘the story’ of this years Open. |
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