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The Mercedes Championship
 
Plantation course, Kapalua, Maui, Hawaii
 
This is the 1st USPGA tournament of the year in which only winners on the tour in 2005 are invited. This year 29 players will do battle on the Plantation course on the island of Maui. The course is long having been extended to 7411 yards for this event and has wide open fairways. Long hitters are strongly favoured over accurate drivers. So we are unlikely to see Fred Funk winning this one. There is no cut which makes it easier to determine the outright odds and betting in running can be good value. Last year Appleby was in joint last place after the 1st round but eventually came through the field to win the tournament. He was 600/1 on Betfair after the 1st round. Anyone in last place in a full field event with a cut would have little chance of winning as there would be too many players ahead of him and too likely  to miss the cut. The greens are very large, undulating and are of Bermuda grass.
 
Value match bet Pinnacle, Olympic 4/5                    tie no bet
 
1.813        Singh        v          Furyk             7 units
 
Singh has an excellent record in this event  3,-,4,2,5  and is 16th on Driving Distance  (DD). He won 4 times on the Tour last year with 25 top 25s and 18 top 10s. Furyk is 170th on DD with 14 top25s and 10 top10s. He won this tournament in 2001 probably due to his excellent putting.
 
Value match bet with Hills
 
4/5   K.Perry        v          Leonard                  6 units
 
Perry continues to play to a high standard with 14 top25s and 7 top10s last year. He is 9th on DD. Leonard is not a very long hitter  (DD=128)  and had only 8 top25s and 4 top10s.
 
Value match bet with SportingBet
 
8/11  Crane        v         Funk                 6 units
 
Ben Crane played in this event 2 years ago and finished 9th and in his last event in 2005 he was 7th. He is 61st on DD compared to 197th for Funk. Funk is not suited to this course at all and may well finish last. Last year he finished 30th in a field of 32.
 
Value group with BetFred
 
K.Perry   7/2         3 units
Toms
M.Campbell
Bryant
Leonard
 
Perry looks good value here against mostly short hitters , Bryant 147,Toms 107 on DD.
 
Value group with SportingBet
 
Faxon          5/1           3 units
Leonard
Calcavecchia
Funk
Lonard
 
Faxon is not a very accurate driver but that doesn't matter on this course. He makes up for his lack of length with his excellent putting which should help him on the large greens. He managed 9th place in this event 3 years ago when he last played the Plantation course.
 
Outright
 
Singh  5/1  with Ladbrkes, Ukbetting and VCBet   3 units
 
Singh won 4 tournaments last year from 30 starts. That makes him about 7.5/1 for each event. In Hawaii he only has 27 players to beat so 5/1 looks very good.
 
Who will finish last betting.
 
2 players to finish last  SportingBet
 
Funk  22/1    2 units ew        
 
Funk cannot use his driving accuracy to any great effect on this course unless the wind blows. He finished 3rd from last in 2005.
 
Choi    66/1     1 unit  ew
 
Choi is not a long hitter  (DD=98) and not a very good putter  (PA=105)  so has a reasonable chance of finishing in the last 4.

LATE UPDATE - Betfred Funk 25/1, Choi 80/1.






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