Turkish GP - Preview.
The Alonso vs. Hamilton spat has been covered extensively in the wider press in the last few weeks and I will not bore anyone with another point of view. It’s sufficient to say that the fact that McLaren were docked the 15 points scored in the constructors league highlights that the powers that be in F1 are going to make sure that the title races are kept going for as long as possible, and if that means giving Ferrari a helping hand, so be it. That can be the only logical reason for the bizarre penalty.
McLaren still have a healthy lead in both Championships but it is widely expected that the next three races should suit Ferrari, more than the Silver Arrows. The red cars are much more at home on faster tracks and Istanbul, Monza and Spa fit the bill. Istanbul is not all about fast corners and straights and there are enough slow corners to be giving McLaren some hope of a win, but they will find beating Ferrari difficult.
The fact that the weather forecast is for hot and dry weather should benefit Ferrari in qualifying as the McLaren have enjoyed a small advantage in that the Ferrari cars have not been able to get the tyres up to optimum temperature as quickly as McLaren and that has helped the silver cars take 5 of the last 7 pole positions. With a hot race track, heating up the tyres will not be a problem and on a track that will also suit the qualities of the Ferrari chassis, both Raikkonen and Massa look to have good chances for qualifying and the race.
This track was the scene Massa’s first pole and F1 race win last season and he is sure to come here with a positive mental outlook. He is driving better than 12 months ago and the car should give him every chance of his 5th pole of the season. Raikkonen is more comfortable with the car than he was earlier in the season and he won from pole position in 2005 and he has every chance of repeating that feat.
The McLaren cannot be discounted and of course in qualifying they could adopt a lower fuel load strategy. That may allow them to hold track position in the early laps, but this is a track that allows overtaking and the faster cars really should be able make their advantage count.
So it looks like qualifying should be tight, but come the race, it should be a battle between the Ferrari drivers, if of course they avoid the kind of mistake that saw Massa not being fuelled properly in Q2.
This is a crucial race for the Ferrari drivers, separated by just 1 point. There are just 6 races left and at some point Ferrari are going to have to pick which one is going to given the number 1 status in terms of who is going for the title. If one of them as a DNF here or losses a lot of ground, then surely the leading driver will get the nod. The fact that Raikkonen is the highest paid driver by some way suggests that it is he who will be the chosen one, but Massa is managed by Jean Todt’s son and is well liked within the team. Everything to play for then and the pressure between two drivers is not just confined to the McLaren drivers.
Perhaps the value for pole position lies with Massa. He has been very impressive in qualifying for some time now, 7 poles from the last 15 races is a very good strike rate and his chances look higher than the odds on offer. However qualifying is always muddied by factors such as being unlucky in traffic and fuel loads carried, so the stakes should be kept modest and a saver on Raikkonen is advised.
3 points Massa to get pole position @ 5.30 with SportingBet. won 12.9 points
1 point Raikkonen to get pole position @ 3.80 with SportingBet. lost 1 point
In the race itself, the Ferraris should hold the aces, but after a 3 week break and no on track testing, some teams will have made more progress than others. Just as Ferrari have improved their performance on the slower tracks, no doubt McLaren will have been working on their cars performance for this set of faster tracks coming up. However, the rule of thumb all season has been that the faster tracks suit Ferrari, the slower ones McLaren and I will support Ferrari once more.
A Ferrari 1-2 finish is possible but they have only managed that once this year. The McLaren car and drivers are always there abouts and able to pounce on any errors from Ferrari, and there have been a few this year. Much as I fancy Massa to pip Raikkonen for pole, I suspect the Finn has better race pace and may employ the same strategy as we saw in France when he carried more fuel in qualifying and reeled in Massa at the second pit stops.
3 points Raikkonen to win the Turkish GP @ 43/20 with Sporting Bet. lost 3 points
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