Spanish GP – Sunday Preview. There is a touch of déjà vu about the scenario for today’s race. Alonso on pole and the bookies favourite, with Schumacher behind him 2nd fav. The usual question about fuel loads is the first part of the puzzle. It is my guess that both cars are carrying fairly similar loads, with Ferrari perhaps being marginally heavier, but no more than 1 or 2 laps. Much like Nurburgring qualifying, Alonso was faster in Q3 than in Q2 ( by 0.5 seconds!), which is the session were the cars are supposed to be at their quickest due to carrying very little fuel and going hell for leather to make sure they get into the final session. That is a hint that Alonso is lighter. Of course it could just have been a blinding good lap, but it is interesting that the only other driver to be faster in Q3 than Q2 was Fisichella, in the other Renault. This now begins to look like Renault have gone lighter on fuel in order to get pole. That may be a good move as the pole position driver has won 8 of the last 9 Spanish GP’s. On the other hand it means that their pace is being flattered by carrying less fuel. Schumacher has a great ability to push very hard when he has the opportunity to pass at the pit stops, somehow finding not just a few 10th’s but over a second and that can be enough to take track position. In Germany he was not able to jump Alonso at the first stop, pitting just 1 lap after Alonso, but was able to put a little more fuel in the car and go 3 laps longer in the second stint, nailing some fast laps and coming out comfortably ahead. The consistency of the Bridgestone tyres plays a big part as they seem to suffer very little degradation which allows Schumacher to pull off this strategy. The Ferrari has another ace up its sleeve, the controversial ‘flexi-wing’ which really is making a big difference on this track with the very long straight. The difference in top speeds between Renault and Ferrari is a big problem for the Anglo-French team. In qualifying yesterday, Massa was 15.3 kmph faster than Alonso, Schumacher 10 kmph faster than Alonso. The trick is that they are not giving up any downforce to gain this lower drag in a straight line, it is all down to this fancy (and legal) rear wing. To put that in perspective, Fisichella was 10 kmph faster than Sato in the very poor Super Aguri. If the Ferraris can get close to the Renaults out of the last corner, they will be able to simply drive by, which is useful as this is a track that is very hard to overtake on. It looks to me like Ferrari have a very strong race strategy, a definite car advantage and at least tyre parity, if not an advantage. Alonso has the advantage of pole position and this time has Fisichella to act as a barrier, hopefully holding up the Ferraris while he builds a big enough lead. This appears to be the Spaniards only hope of success and it may work. The Michelins are a little quicker to get up to temperature and are just a little better on the opening lap, so Renault will fancy their chances of controlling the race from the front. The bad news for Fisichella is that he is on the dirty side of the track (and having just watched the GP2 race this morning, it is very dusty). This will compromise his start and could allow Schumacher to jump him. If so, Alonso chances are vastly reduced. Taking all things into account, I am very surprised that Schumacher is not favourite for this race, not even joint favourite, but 2/1 second fav! That is a wrong price in my opinion. 5 points Schumacher to win the Spanish GP @ 15/8 Hills, Ladbrokes, BetDirect. lost 5 points Sadly our bets on McLaren look doomed after they flopped spectacularly in qualifying. Instead of 2nd or 3rd row, they are 9th and 12th, a terrible effort. No doubt they will be strong in the race, but they do seem to be to far back to get a podium, unless there is some serious attrition at the front. One team that have impressed me for most of the season and in all the sessions here so far, is BMW Sauber. Very fast in a straight line, 4th and 5th fastest through the speed traps in qualifying, they will be very hard to pass and might nick a few places on the straight. Unfortunately Villeneuve has had to have an engine change and starts at the back of the grid. It is asking too much for him to come all the way up into the points, but Heidfeld starting 10th does look to have a decent chance for a top 8 finish. There are concerns about Raikkonens engine and the Hondas are struggling, so there is an opening for him. 3 points Heidfeld to finish in the points @ 7/4 with BlueSq. won 5.25 points In the same vein, Heidfeld looks reasonable value to beat Mark Webber. The BMW Sauber is simply quicker this weekend and the Williams are not enjoying good reliability, Webber has retired from 3 of the 5 races so far. Part of the problem is the state of the art seamless shift gear box. It may give 0.3 seconds a lap, but if it breaks, it is not much good. Heidfeld should be able to out pace Webber, and if not, there is a fair chance he will out last him. 4 points Heidfeld to beat Webber @ 5/4 with BlueSq. won 5 points |
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Betting Previews
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