Spanish GP – Sunday Update. Another disastrous punting weekend looks likely. The wrong Ferrari is on pole and as this is Spain, that means Kimi is as hot a favourite as you will get this season. Alonso is a surprise second, but actually if you look at the times he was setting in free practice, it should not be that big a surprise. Third fastest in FP2 and FP3 was obviously not a fluke. However, the team have said that he is on an aggressive qualifying strategy (i.e. light on fuel) and Alonso himself says he expects to be battling for 6th place. Mind you, he has been writing off his chances all week, keeping a lid on the fans expectations. Certainly Renault have done the race organisers a very big favour as ticket sales have been well down compared to recent years, but today I dare say might just be a sell out now. The likelihood is that we will see a Ferrari 1-2 finish with battle for third between Kubica and Hamilton. The BMW driver is very worried about the start of the race as his car is proving very unpredictable off the line. He was blown away by Massa in Bahrain and says that even after they have worked on the systems, the car is unpredictable and he ‘is scared’ about the start. His podium hopes could be dashed on the first lap if the car gets wheel spin. That would probably let Hamilton through, if he remembers which button to push! Despite the worry that he might get a bad start, Kubica looks a bit of value to beat Alonso. It is pretty certain that Alonso will pit early and that should allow Kubica to move ahead after his first stop. I have a feeling that BMW might be running with a little more fuel in both cars than we have seen so far this season so his times in relation to Alonso might be flattering the Spaniard. Stan James make him 8/15 to win this match up which is nearer the right odds. 5 points Kubica to beat Alonso @ 5/6 with BlueSq. won 4.16 points The fastest lap market has been very hard to predict this year so far. Two For Kovalainen and one for Heidfeld. None for Ferrari, despite them have the fastest car. So it seems very possible, on a track on which the gap between the 1st and 10th has been around one second, that we could see another surprise winner. The Ferraris are unlikely to have to push at the front and it maybe the battles for points behind them is were the fastest lap of the race is set, late in the race when it is well’ rubbered in’ and at a time when the leaders will be easing off rather than pushing. Perhaps it is worth taking a shot gun approach and taking on Ferrari with the some of the lively outsiders. I actually like the price on Alonso. The car is clearly capable of going very fast in the hands of Alonso and on home soil he will not lack motivation to get the best possible result, he could even beat a couple of McLarens’ which would probably make him favourite to be the next King of Spain! The BMW’s have to have a chance as do the McLarens. Small stakes, but decent odds. 1 point Alonso to set the fastest lap @ 17.00 with Ladbrokes 0.5 point Kubica to set fastest lap @ 8.00 with Bet365 0.5 point Heidfeld to set fastest lap @ 13.00 with Bet365 0.5 point Hamilton to set fastest lap @ 8.00 with Coral, Bet365 0.5 point Kovalainen to set fastest lap @ 13.00 with Bet365. lost 3 points
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