Spanish GP – Sunday update. It couldn’t be closer at the top. The lighter fuelled Massa and Alonso on the front row, separated by just 0.03 seconds, and their heavier fuelled team mates on the second row, separated by 0.06 seconds. Its very clear that the two cars are very evenly matched and while the pole position driver has won 9 of the last 10 Spanish GP’s, the best offer of 13/8 for a Massa win doesn’t look that tempting. I feel that if Massa can keep Alonso at bay on the fist lap, he will probably win, this track is that dull. If Alonso can get passed on the first lap, then he should win. History suggests that Raikkonen and Hamilton have little chance. It could be a better idea to have a punt on Alonso having a good start and leading the race at the end of the 1st lap at 3/1. We have seen Massa fluff a start already this year and the McLaren looks to have a slight edge off the line. If he fails, you could bail out on Massa with an in-running bet at much the same odds as at the start. 2 points Alonso lap 1 leader @ 3/1with Skybet. lost 2 points Hamilton lines up 4th on the grid for the 3rd time this season and looks a decent bet at 4/5 to convert it into a fourth straight podium. However he looks better value to beat Raikkonen, something he will probably need to do to get that podium. The McLarens did look good on the hard tyre in practice and quite a bit better on the medium compound than Ferrari. As both compounds have to be used, there should be a stage of the race when Hamilton has enough advantage to pull off a positional change at a pit stop. There is also the fact that Ferrari do not so good when they are following another car and Raikkonen will be following from lap 1. Hamilton may even be able to make up the place at the start. The price is better than just to finish on the podium. 3 points Hamilton to beat Raikkonen @ 11/8 with Paddy Power. won 4.12 points Stan James have come up with a new market ‘without the big 6’, that is without McLaren, Ferrari and BMW. That leaves a very interesting race within a race and Kovalainen looks worth support. The other Finn in F1 has not had the impact many had expected, but the car has hardly given him much chance to shine. Since his terrible debut in Melbourne he has steadied the ship and finished 8th and 9th, placing in this market on each occasion. For this race he has his best grid position (8th) by some margin, is on a track he knows well and in a car that has made some progress over the last 4 weeks, relative to its nearest rivals (with the possible exception of Red Bull). He is effectively ‘2nd’ on the grid for this market and I have been impressed with his starts so far, making up at least 1 place on every start (two on average). Trulli on the other hand, heading the grid, has lost 1 place in all three races so far this season. So we might well see Kovalainen leading this race from lap 1 and if so, on this track, he could well go on to win this ‘alternative’ GP. 2 points e/w Kovalainen to win W/O the big 6 @ 4/1 with Stan James. lost 0.4 points |
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