Monaco GP – Sunday update. It is not often you the words Ferrari and justice in the same sentence, but that is what they got after Schumachers pathetic attempt knobble his opponents yesterday. Not for the first time, the man makes himself look like one of the worlds worst sportsmen. The downside is that it robs us of another close contest, and this time Raikkonen is up there as well. It looks like a walk in the park for Alonso now, as his odds of 1.50 suggest. However, this is Monaco were strange things happen. In the past we have seen the very best drivers looking nailed on for a win, just for the car to break, a tyre to burst, or just a loss of concentration and whamo, the barriers bite! Alonso is not home and hosed. In the past 20 races here the pole position driver has only won 40% of the races. 55% have come from 2nd or 3rd, so perhaps in search of value, we should be looking at Webber or Raikkonen. Logic says that Kimi is better than Webber, the McLaren faster than Williams, so Alonso’s biggest threat will be Raikkonen. However history shows us that in the last 5 races here Williams have 38 points, 2 more than McLaren. We all know that while McLaren are quick they are also prone to breaking. In the last 5 races here they have a 40% rate of retirement, the same as Williams. So while the winner appears certain to come from the first 3 on the grid, backing any of them looks risky. Historically, with 2nd place on the grid winning 35% of the races, Webber looks to be the best value at surprisingly large 14/1. With a good start and a clean race, a slower driver can hold his place at Monaco. How many times have we seen a much faster car getting stuck behind a mobile road block at Monaco. DC did it to win in 2002 and the very next year he got stuck behind an Arrows for most of the race. He is unlikely to beat Alonso, but if the Championship leader has any problems, who knows. It is worth a very speculative small punt. 1 point e/w Mark Webber to win @ 14/1 with SportingOdds. lost 2 ponts Webbers team mate Rosberg looks an interesting proposition. Starting in 8th, it would appear that he is carrying a lot more fuel. He was never going for it in Q3 yesterday and it seems that Williams have chosen to run the two cars on a different strategies, which on this circuit is very wise. It is very likely that the safety car will be required at some stage, maybe several stages, and that could throw a very large spanner in the works for some of the front runners. Those cars with a lot of fuel on board may get a lucky break and be able to stay out while the lighter fuelled cars have to take an early stop. If Lady Luck shines on Rosberg he could find himself in with a chance of a podium and he looks a solid points bet. 1 point Rosberg to finish on the podium @ 16/1 with SportingOdds. lost 1 point 5 points Rosberg to finish in the points @ evens with SportingOdds, BetFred, Skybet. lost 5 points If we have a less eventful race, Alonso should be able to comfortably control the race from the front, he is in a comfort zone with Schumacher starting from the back. He does not have drive at 100% to beat his rival, just finish, probably 1st, but 2nd or even 3rd would see him extend an already sizeable lead in the title race. Raikkonen on the other hand, may not have many chances to win races this year, certainly the McLaren has not threatened so far, so he will no doubt look to take his chance when they occur, and today might give him a chance. The car can be very fast in race trim, usually it is poor in qualifying but quick in the race. In yesterdays Q2 session Raikkonen was fastest, a good sign that the car has plenty of potential to set fastest lap. With Alonso not having to go flat out to win, perhaps Raikkonen can repeat his fastest lap on the streets of Melbourne with another here. 2 points Raikkonen to set fastest lap @ 9/2 with BlueSq, Bet365. lost 2 points David Coulthard has shown great pace all weekend and he is a proven Monaco expert. The driver makes a big difference here and had he not been blocked by Fisichella (who was penalised for his move) on his last qualifying run, he would have been threatening the 2nd row on the grid. He looks reasonable value to beat Trulli who is still not entirely happy with the new Toyota. The Toyota does have a habit of going poorly in races and Trulli is capable of putting it higher on the grid that it deserves to be. It should be very close between the two but the Red Bull appears to have better speed (DC was 0.5 seconds quicker in Q2) and the odds on Coulthard look generous. 3 points Coulthard to beat Trulli at 6/5 with Hills. won 3.6 points |
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