Monaco GP – Preview. We have the prospect of another GP which will feature no overtaking this weekend, but unlike Barcelona, it will not be dull and qualifying promises to be a must see spectacle. Grid position is massively important on this narrow, slow, twisty little track and we will see everyone striving to get as high up the grid as possible. It is very unlikely teams will plan to carry a lot of fuel in qualifying as history suggests that if you are not in the front 3 on the grid, you can forget about winning or pray for rain, and the weather forecasts suggest that those prayers will not be answered this weekend. Qualifying is the key to finding the winner, but with high attrition, things can be quite fluid in the mid-field and match bets that looked dead at the start of the race can suddenly pay out after a driver hits a barrier a little too hard. This year qualifying is going to be incredible. The new system means that all 22 cars will be out on track for the first 15 minutes, trying to get into the top 15 stage and 22 cars trying to set a qualifying time on this track is bound to lead to incidents. Drivers will get baulked by slower cars, or drivers on an out/in lap, some drivers are bound to hit the barriers and smash up their car and as we have seen already this season, anyone out on the track when a yellow or red flag is thrown is in danger of missing out in setting a fast time. It is very likely that we will see some of the big names get a bum deal and end up outside the top ten on the grid through no fault of their own, and conversely a few unlikely faces will find themselves right up at the business end of the grid and with a real chance of some big points. The problem is trying to guess who will be the winners and losers in the qualifying lottery, and unless you are clairvoyant, it is only a guess. As a punter you have a choice this weekend. Make your selections before qualifying and hope you get lucky but risk your selections getting screwed, or wait until after qualifying when you only have the race to work out, but having missed the better odds available before qualifying. Perhaps the best option is that if you fancy a few outsiders to get lucky, back them now, if you fancy the favourites, leave backing them until after qualifying as their odds will not be dramatically shorter even if they are on the front two rows. Monaco is such an unusual track that you can get some surprises, the driver can make a big difference and with a little luck you can get a decent priced driver on the podium. Eddie Irvine was a favourite of mine on this track, cropping up on the podium in a Jaguar at 200/1 was a case in point. Horses for courses is a good rule of thumb for Monaco. Drivers who have done well here in the past tend to repeat the job. Another interesting fact is that while Monaco is famous for producing multiple winners, such as Graham Hill, Alain Prost, Michael Schumacher, Jackie Stewart and Ayrton Senna, the last time we have seen the race winner successfully defend his title was back in 1995. The last 5 Monaco GP’s have been won by 5 different drivers, and with Coulthard (twice), Montoya and Trulli winning, the ‘second string’ drivers have turned the tables on the more fancied drivers. It is a strange place and strange results happen. So who could be the joker in the pack this weekend? Fisichella could be the one. He was very impressive here in years gone by when he had less than competitive machinery to drive. Two podiums in the Benetton Playlife and a 5th in the Jordan in 2002 were impressive drives. He loves the track, unlike his team mate Alonso who does not rate the experience as high as many. The trouble with Fisi is that he is no longer the up and comer, he is now desperately fighting for his credibility and a F1 drive next year. He can be hugely disappointing and up against Alonso, his confidence is getting sapped. He did well in Barcelona, just fraction behind Alonso in qualifying with an extra lap of fuel on board, so on his very best form he can get close, and with Alonso not a fan of this track, he could get his nose in front come Sunday. Certainly the Renault should be well suited to this twisty track that rewards good traction. A look at the constructors records over the last 5 years shows that there is very little between the big teams, Ferrari and Williams on 38 points, McLaren 36 and Renault 25. McLaren celebrate their 40th Anniversary this weekend, but despite having 4 winners in the last 10 years and last years winner, there is little reason to believe that they can win this season. The car is too slow in qualifying and on this track that is a huge handicap. Williams have been very strong here in the last 5 years, after a long spell when they really struggled to score points in the principality. They were the surprise package last season, finishing 2nd and 3rd, but again it is hard to see them repeating that this season. Rosberg has struggled in qualifying and if Williams were to get a podium it must come from Webber. He likes the track and has the qualifying ability to get him into the top 6, a dark horse perhaps, if the car stays in one piece and he doesn’t make a blunder. Honda have proven that their car is excellent in qualifying and both Button and Barrichello must come into the frame on that basis. Barrichello has upped his game at last, just as Button has suffered in qualifying. His race performances are still not as good as the Britton. Button has blown hot and cold at Monaco, a good podium in 2004 but a massive smash in 2003. A possible podium, but the team do seem to trip up over their own shoes laces too often form my liking. Toyota have the all new B spec car for this weekend and both drivers are fans of the track. They tested well at Paul Ricard last week but there are doubts about how well the car will handle the bumpy streets and it must be remembered that the team has only scored 7 points and 6 of those came in one race. Surely too much to ask. BMW Sauber have been impressive in the first 6 rounds, they are this seasons over performers, currently in 5th place in the constructors and quick enough to expect to get at least 1 of their cars in the top 10 in qualifying. If they get lucky in the qualifying lottery, Heidfeld or the rejuvenated Villeneuve could be big the really dark horses. Villeneuves course record is not great but Heidfeld has 4 top 8 finishes from 6 starts and in his only drive in a reasonable car (last years Williams) he finished second, from 6th on the grid. Impressive. My head tells me to hold fire until after qualifying but there are 2 small bets worth risking, just in case their number comes up in the lucky dip that will be qualifying on Saturday. 2 points e/w Fisichella outright at 11/1 with Paddy Power and BetUK. lost 4 points 1 point Heidfeld to finish on the podium at 20/1 with Skybet. lost 1 point There may be an update on Friday when the bookies price up after Thursdays free practice sessions. If not, the next update will be 30 mins before qualifying on Saturday, with the last update no later than 1 hour before the race on Sunday. Sorry, No Friday update - check back before Q. |
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Betting Previews
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