Malaysian GP – Early Bets.
No time for a full preview just now, these bets are
too hot to hold back. 3 MAXIMUM BETS.
10 points Jenson Button to out qualify Massa @ 1.80
with Unibet
This could be a walkover for Button, indeed I expect
it to be a no contest. Massa has had to change his
engine, Ferrari found faults in it after the end of
the Bahrain GP and have had no option but to change
it. The means he faces a 10 place grid penalty and
that means it is very possible, if not quite 100%
certain, that Massa will not even run a lap in
anger. Why should he? If he qualified on pole he
would start in 11th place on a light
load. He would probably be first into the pits
(as in
Bahrain) and would get swallowed up by the later
stoppers and drop back into the pack, finding
himself stuck in mid to rear of the pack.
If he chooses to not run any qualifying laps he will
start last or there about depending on others
needing engine changes. From there he can fill the
car for a 1 stopper and ‘do a Raikkonen’, cutting
through the slow cars on the first few laps and
catching up the faster cars up front at the first
set of pitstops. Even starting last, he should be
looking at scoring points.
Also by not running in qualifying he can save on
tyres, maybe using more in testing and keeping a
fresh set for the race as well. It also keeps the
mileage down on his engine, which of course he will
have to use in Melbourne. So where is the incentive
for Massa to even set a time? I cannot see one. In
which case all Button has to do is set a qualifying
time to win this bet. If he blew an engine and did
the same as Massa it would be a tie, but hopefully
that won’t happen.
Exactly the same logic applies to these two bets
below (Coulthard has had to change his engine as
well)
won 8 points
10 points Raikkonen to out qualify Massa @ 1.60 with
Unibet
won 6 points
10 points Rosberg to out qualify Coulthard @ 1.55
with Unibet
won 1.55 points
Pole Position.
1.5 points e/w Mark Webber @ 28/1 with BlueSq, 25/1
generally
lost 3 points
0.5 point e/w Nico Rosberg @ 33/1 with Ladbrokes,
Stan James
won 2.80 points
Betting on pole position is always a bit of a guess
as the fuel load carried plays such a big part and
the team strategies are closely guarded secrets.
However when a price that looks way off of the mark
comes along you just have to get involved.
The case for Williams in qualifying is quite strong
and I have both drivers MUCH shorter in qualifying
betting than just about every other compiler in the
business. Somebody is wrong and I hope it’s not me.
Both Williams were very fast in the race at Bahrain,
of the ten fastest laps Williams set 7 (6 for
Rosberg and 1 for Webber). Clearly the car is
capable of very fast times. So why did they only get
Webber into the final 10 I qualifying?
Rosberg screwed up in the second KO session, spun
twice. Youthful exuberance getting the better of him
on a dusty track. In Webbers case he was carrying a
heavy fuel load, he only pitted on lap 23 meaning he
and Montoya were carrying more fuel than the others
in the top 10 (6 laps more than Schumacher, 4 more
than Alonso, 5 more than Button). The team were
gunning for a sure fire points finish. They didn’t
realise they had the pace to mix it with the big
boys. So they went conservative on tyres and fuel.
Not this time. The team now realise they can get a
podium, a win perhaps and in Malaysia they will be
in a full on attack mode. That means less fuel in
qualifying and tyres that will be better for the
qualifying stint. The team are very bullish and
while they are still not going to be favourites for
qualifying, no way should they be offered at these
sort of odds (even bigger odds where available
early this morning). Remember that Webber put last
years Williams on the front row and this years model
looks a whole lot more competitive than that.
Williams know that if they want to win, or at least
get a podium finish, the best way, in fact the only
way, is to qualify at or very near the front of the
pack, and that will be their target on Saturday.
Rosberg looks to be the best young driver since
Schumacher judged by his race in Bahrain but
preference goes to Webber who is a proven master of
a qualifying lap. (My god I am saying nice things
about Mark Webber……I need a drink).
2 points Rosberg to set fastest Lap @ 12/1 with
Skybet
lost 2 points
1 point Webber to set fastest lap @ 20/1 with
BlueSq.
lost 1 point
On the same Williams theme, having set 7 of the top
10 fastest laps in Bahrain and on a more aggressive
strategy it is worth having a punt on the pair to
set fastest lap. Only two bookies have priced up so
far, but the prices are coming in already, so its
worth taking them now. Preference is given to
Rosberg as he looks the more racey and talented over
a race distance (That’s more like it – Ed.)
Malaysian GP –
Saturday Update.
A fascinating grid for tomorrow’s race and it is
possible to argue a case for 6 or 7 drivers to win
the race. There is the usual question of fuel
strategies and reliability issues, but this being
Malaysia the weather is always crucial. The
forecasters that have served me well in the last 2
seasons are happy to say that there is an 80% chance
of thunderstorms on Sunday, but that they will
arrive at least 4 hours after the end of the race.
It will be quite cloudy, but we should see a dry
race, which takes out a major variable.
The fuel strategies are as always an educated guess,
but it seems clear that McLaren are running heavy
and will be looking to run a long first stint and
take the lead at the first set of stops. On the
evidence of the Bahrain race, McLaren are very able
to run heavy and fast and must be a major contender
for a race win. Their reliability is a known
weakness and while Raikkonen has a new engine for
this weekend, Montoya is still on the unit that was
less than perfect in Bahrain.
Fisichella is an unexpected pole sitter, he has a
fine car but the general consensus is that Fisi is
running a few laps lighter than McLaren and his team
mate Alonso. There is also the memory of Suzuka when
he was pathetic in losing what should have been an
unassailable lead. From pole position he has to have
a chance, but he is not rock solid.
Alonso was well fancied to make it back to back
wins, but he again had a poor final qualifying
session. A combination of a mistake and the fact
that a fuel rig problem meant he now has more fuel
than his strategy was planned for. It is better than
too little fuel, but not perfect and it will make
his race more difficult.
Williams have come into this season in great shape
and they are going for nothing less than a win.
Starting from 3rd and 4th, they can hope to achieve
that. They will be pressed by Renault and McLaren
and may be a little light on fuel, but they showed
fantastic race pace in Bahrain. But for his first
corner shunt and resultant 45 second pit-stop,
Rosberg would have finished at least 4th, and
probably a podium. From 3rd on the grid, he looks a
possible winner. The new Bridgestones that Williams
are able to use are very different from the old ones
which hated the heat, these ones love the heat and
the team are very bullish that they will be stronger
in the race, and that they can win. Rosberg is new
to the track, but to get 3rd on the grid does more
than suggest he has taken to it without any problem.
Webber is perhaps carrying more fuel, but the big
worry is that this is a jinxed track for him, 4
retirements from 4 starts.
I have not forgotten Jenson Button. Second on the
grid and by all accounts carrying a decent fuel
load. He likes the track and says the car is very
well suited. The downside is that he used up a lot
of tyres in qualifying and that may come back to
haunt him in a tight finish. His engine must also be
a concern as team mate Barrichello has had to change
his before qualifying. You also have to ask the
question, have the team sorted out the clutch
problem that ruined his race start in Bahrain?
Schumacher has ended up 10th on the grid despite an
engine change but to get that high up, he is likely
to be a little light on fuel and to beat both
Renaults, Button, the McLarens and Williams is a
massive ask, and very unlikely.
It really is a very difficult choice to pick a
likely winner but Rosberg does look to be a very
special talent, in a good position on the grid and
might still be a big price at 12/1. Of the more
established drivers, Raikkonen stands out on the
back of his charge from last to 3rd in Bahrain and
the fact that McLaren do seem to be running exactly
to plan this weekend. If the car lasts, who ever
beats him is likely to be the winner. I suggest we
go into the race with two barrels loaded.
3 points Raikkonen to win @ 11/4 generally
available.
lost 3 points
2 points e/w Rosberg @ 12/1 Stan James, SportingOdds.
lost 4 points
1 point dual forecast Raikkonen/Rosberg @ 20/1 with
Ladbrokes.
lost 1 point
The reliability issue has already had a major impact
on the race with so many engine changes that for a
while no one really new what the grid for the race
actually was. The biggest victim seems to have been
Ferrari. DC had to change is Ferrari unit after it
failed after the flag in Bahrain. Massas’ engine was
found to have cracked piston heads after Bahrain and
he has not 1 but 2 changes! And to make it 4
changes, Schumacher changed his engine before
qualifying this morning. The only Ferrari engine
that has yet to be changed is Christian Kliens’. It
does not look good for the young Austrian. This is
the team that had never completed a race distance
before Bahrain and it was a minor miracle that they
got both cars home (Coulthard only made it by a few
metres!). He has to be opposed.
4 points Klien not to be classified finisher @
11/8 with Stan James.
won 5.5 points
4 points Coulthard to beat Klien @ 5/4 with William
Hill.
lost 4 points
One team that should not suffer from any reliability
problems is Scuderia Torro Rosso (or STR to save
time). They have the restricted Cosworth V10 which
has the same cooling capacity as the unrestricted
V10, so the high temperatures are not a problem for
this already rock solid engine. In Bahrain we saw
BMW Sauber show good pace with little reward, but we
also saw Villeneuves’ engine exploding with some
great force. Heidfeld is still running with his old
engine and it must be a concern that his will go the
same way in the oppressive conditions at Sepang. It
is worth a minimum bet that the reliable STRs can
nick a point and win the match bet versus BMW Sauber.
1 point STR to beat BMW Sauber @ 4/1 with BlueSq.
lost 1 point
