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Japanese GP – Preview.

The weather on Sunday is now looking more and more like being wet, which is good news for the earlier Button bets. It also means that betting on the favourites on Sunday may not be a great idea, rain has a knack of providing good results for outsiders.

The weather on Friday and Saturday may see the odd shower, but it is more likely to be dry and as such, should run to form. Of course being a new track, predicting what the form is, will be more difficult. The circuit is dominated by a huge straight, followed by some medium speed corners and finally a slow twisty sector. Superficially it would appear to be very similar to Indianapolis, and the general consensus is that the set up will be towards the low downforce end of the spectrum. There are a few that disagree, Button for example “I think people are looking at mid to high downforce.  It's definitely not low downforce even though there's a long straight – there are corners where you need grip under braking and traction." Perhaps he is already thinking about a wet set up!

The track would appear to favour the McLaren car as it has been stronger on low downforce tracks and Ferrari acknowledge the fact that they have struggled on low downforce tracks and that that is something they cannot hope to cure this season, it is a problem that has to be addressed for next years car. So, in the dry at least, advantage McLaren.

It was Hamilton who won at Indianapolis, but it was a close thing. The last couple of races have seen Alonso simply being faster than Hamilton and it is the Spaniard who appears to have the upper hand coming into this race. However, Hamilton is saying that he has worked out were he went wrong in car set ups for the last two races and is confident that he will be back to full speed this weekend. The fact that Alonso has no advantage in terms of track experience will help Hamilton and despite McLarens 100% driver equality policy, you have to suspect that the team is now right behind the young Brit.

It should be very close between the two McLaren drivers, but the value looks to lay with Hamilton this weekend. I am not happy backing anyone at single figure odds in want is likely to be a wet race, but with a dry qualifying in prospect, Hamilton gets the nod. Modest stakes as there is a chance of a shower which could mix things up.

2 points Hamilton to be fastest qualifier @ 7/2 with Ladbrokes, Hills.

won 7 points

One more bet for the race outright has to be Adrian Sutil to get a points finish. He pulled off one of the shocks of the season when fastest in Saturdays free practice at Monaco and that was all down to ability in the wet. He may be a bit too crash happy to back him with any great confidence, but with the car much improved, signs of good wet weather ability and the fact that the team is still largely the old Jordan out fit, he looks worth a small wager. Jordan were masters of pulling off shock results in wet races as they knew it was their only chance. So if there was just a sniff of a wet race, they set the car up for rain while the rest just had compromised set ups. If it was dry, well so what, they were going to be at the back anyway, if it rained, suddenly they put themselves in with a chance of getting lucky.

1 point Adrian Sutil to finish in the points @ 40/1 with Skybet.

lost 1 point

The next update will not be the usual 30 minutes before qualifying as it is unlikely for there to be many bookies operating at that time, so check back late Friday evening UK time.