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Formula 1 2006 - Preview. It seems to be the same every year, all the pundits say ‘this looks like being the most competitive season for years’, only for 1 or 2 teams to turn up at the first race and show that in reality it will at best be a match, or at worst , a walkover. However, there are signs that this year it might just be true and a decent case can be made for four teams and at least half a dozen drivers as title winners. RENAULT. The reigning Champions are a good place to start. The new car looks great, has been running like clockwork in winter testing, and running very quickly as well. There are some who believe that Renault were lucky to win last year as they didn’t have the fastest car, which of course, is crap. Renault had a very fast car and once Alonso’s title was won, the team let the car show its true potential in China and Alonso waltzed away to an easy race win. Make no mistake, Renault operated with some performance in reserve for most of 2005, they made a great start to the season and went for a conservative approach that ensured they would finish races and accumulate a lot of points. It worked very nicely. The team are at the peak of a performance cycle and the new car is a logical development of the R25, a car good enough to win both the Drivers and Constructors titles in 2005. The new V8 engine is looking very competitive, the chassis is excellent, the Michelins are proving to be more competitive than Bridgestones in testing and the driver line up is unchanged. Some people are saying that because Alonso is moving to McLaren for 2006 his motivation will not 100% and the team is demoralised. Rubbish. The deal is done, he knows were he will be next year, he has no distractions for the year ahead, everyone has had time to get used to it, and everybody at Renault wants to win, especially to shut up the critics who thought the R25 was not a worthy winner last year. I have yet to hear a convincing argument or seen any evidence, to suggest that the Renault will not be winning races and remain the team to beat in 2006. Alonso is arguably the best driver in F1, very fast and he makes very few mistakes. Fisichella was a disappointment in 2005 but expect him to be much quicker this year. He has now had a year back with the team and the new car will suit his driving style much more than last years. I can see race wins for both drivers, but Alonso should once again be too quick for Fisichella. Prediction: Successful defence of both titles. McLAREN. Last years car was voted ‘Car of the Year’ by Autosport readers, usually a fairly intelligent bunch. How can a car that was so unreliable be voted the best? The Championships are won by the driver/car that scores the most points, not sets the most fastest laps. The fact was that last years McLaren was not 100% ready at the start of the season and in trying to catch Renault, they had to push the car beyond its limits, causing inevitable mechanical failures, and it seems that scenario may just about to happen again. Winter testing showed the new McLaren to be slow and unreliable, a fault of the engine. Within the last few weeks the cars performance has improved and it now looks capable of matching the pace of the Renault, but the doubts remain that over a race distance there a still some gremlins in there just waiting to cause problems. The fact is that the team has had to stretch themselves just to get to this point, they are behind schedule and it is not just the engine that has been a problem.. Back at the factory, there are a few empty seats that had been filled by some very important designer chappies, not least Adrian Newey, regarded as the best in the business. You have to wonder how this will impact on the development of the car as the season goes on, it is not an ideal situation and this brain drain out of the team has to be a negative. Raikkonen is more than capable of winning the title, he is certainly in the top drawer in terms of ability. There is the possibility that he may be distracted by negotiations regarding his future. Alonso is definitely driving for McLaren next year, so either Raikkonen or Montoya will not be. The rumours persist that Raikkonen will drive for Ferrari next season, but this is denied by his management and until Schumacher confirms his plans for 2006, I cannot see how any agreement could be made. Schumacher will not allow a real threat into the second Ferrari. So it looks like Raikkonen will have serious decisions to make during the year and will be the centre of media attention, which his not his cup of tea. Montoya is also shopping around for a new job, just in case he gets shown the door, which is possible. He did not cover himself in glory last year but he retains the ability to be very quick and win races. Like Fisichella he now has a year with the team under his rather large belt, and really should be more competitive this season. The new multi lap qualifying system will benefit Montoya, he likes to tinker with his set up and build up to a crescendo, were as Raikkonen can just nail it straight away. Remember that Montoya had 7 pole positions the last season we had multi lap qualifying. Prediction: Close, but no cigar once again. Mechanical weakness and a more competitive Montoya will blunt Raikkonens aspirations. Sour grapes will be the dish of the day at the end of season party/wake. HONDA. Having finally shaken off their tobacco addiction, Honda are now fully in control and focused on the job of winning races and tiles. Well they should be fully focused, but for some bizarre reason they have decided to prop up a ‘B’ team (Super Aguri) for the sole reason of keeping Sato in F1. On a scale of 1 – 10 on the MadoMeter, that is an 11. This is a team that has yet to win a race, and here they are putting resources into a project best described as ill conceived. On the positive side, they seem to have built a very good car for 2006 and in the ‘winter championship’, Honda have emerged as the biggest threat to Renault. Button set a fantastic time at Barcelona last week (a whisker ahead of the two Renaults) and they have been racking up a lot of trouble free laps in testing. Fast and reliable, you can ask for no more. The fact that they are the only ‘top team’ to be allowed to run a 3rd car on Friday will be a very useful advantage. They have strengthened their driver line up by replacing Sato with Barrichello. That’s a bit like an athlete changing deep sea divers boots for the latest Nikes. Testing times suggest that Barrichello has settled in quickly and will definitely push Button very hard this year. Both drivers are capable of winning races and they many be Renaults biggest threat, certainly in the early races. Prediction: Button should break his duck but to make the leap from virgin to Cock ‘o the North is not going to happen. There is something about this team that worries me, they do seem to be able to shoot themselves in the foot just when everything is looking good. FERRARI. Having recommended Schumacher at 5/1 for this years title way back in November, I hope he can return to his imperious ways, but the evidence suggests that he will have to be at his very best to be Champion again. Ferrari is not the biggest bully on the block any more and perhaps the atmosphere is a bit stale at Maranello. Gone are the days of unlimited cash flowing from Fiat and there are signs that the key players are just waiting for Schumacher to hand in the keys to the company car before they jump ship. If Raikkonen really has signed for Ferrari, he has made a bad move. This team are on a downward cycle and just competing, having previously dominated, is difficult. The best thing about Ferrari is Schumacher and he has not given up yet. He still wants success badly and he is one of the few drivers that really can make a difference. He cannot do it alone but at least he has a chance to compete this year as the new tyre regulations will allow Bridgestone to get back on terms with Michelin. Bridgestone never managed to adapt to making tyres that were good for a whole race, but now we are back the ‘3 sprints’ mode of racing, they should be quick again. Massa has replaced Barrichello which looks certain to kill off any chance of Ferrari winning the Constructors title. Winter testing has shown the car to have reasonable pace, not far off the Renault and Honda, but Bridgestone have not yet closed the gap on Michelin and there have been reliability problems, not something you can normally associate with Ferrari. Predictions: One last push for the summit for Herr Schumacher and you can’t rule him out, but the competition is strong and his air of invincibility has been wiped out. Race wins will come but the team needs to match his efforts if a title is to be won. TOYOTA. One of the most improved teams last season and the target for 2006 is to win a race. With all their resources that should be achievable but the early signs are not good. The car has never been on the pace in testing and even the new aero package introduced last week has not moved them with in reach of the pace setters. Another major revamp is planned for the Monaco GP but the problem seems to stem from the switch to Bridgestone tyres. Not only are they not yet on par with Michelins, but Toyota are having problems getting the most out of the ones provided now. The driver line up of Ralf Schumacher and Jarno Trulli is not the worst on the grid, but neither is it the best. Both tend to go into their shell when things get tough and Toyota really need someone like Michael Schumacher or Alonso, who could drag them up and motivate the team. Unless the car develops rapidly it looks like Toyota could have a bad year. The pressure really is on now, especially with Honda looking so strong, and heads will roll if a race is not won. It’s hard to see that happening for now, but this company will try and buy success and can’t be written off just yet. Prediction: A step backwards, at least for the early races and a fair slice of luck looks needed to land that first race win. The team has the resources to improve, but does it have the right people? WILLIAMS. A team that has taken a few steps backwards in the last few years and no longer has the backing of a manufacturer. A big year ahead from one of the all time great teams but there is too much change for my liking. Continuity is worth a lot of points in F1 and that is one thing that Williams have not got. They have a new driver, Rosberg, quick but very young. They have a new tyre Supplier, Bridgestone, who are not yet competitive. They have a new head of aero (for about the 3rd year in a row). They have a new engine supplier (and one they have to pay for). The team has had very little stability for years now and they really need to consolidate and stop the slide down the pecking order, otherwise they will go the way of Lotus and Tyrrell. The new V8 from Cosworth is getting rave reviews and not only from within the team but there is a doubt that Cosworth have the budget to continue to develop at the same pace as a manufacturer and they may fall back as the season goes on. Winter testing has occasionally seen the car setting some quick times but it has seen a lot of technical problems and early season reliability could be a problem. The driver line up is interesting with young Nico Rosberg replacing Heidfeld. Highly rated by team insiders, I think we could see him making Mark Webbers life very difficult. The Aussie really needs to have a good year and he does not need a hot young driver making a name for himself in the other Williams. Predictions: If they can finish races and Bridgestone improve, they could occasional have a decent result, but the glory days may be forever behind them. RED BULL. Last years surprise package, but winter testing has seen……well not much testing. The new Ferrari engine suffered from chronic over heating for most of the winter and with just one week to go before the 1st race they have yet to run a full race distance. A very poor preparation and with 3 fly away races to start the season, they do not look in great shape. Adrian Newey joined the team from McLaren, but his brief will be to build the 2007 car rather than sort out this one, but no doubt he have some input later in the season. Coulthard and Klien remain as the driver combination. Coulthard's pre season testing was halted by a trapped nerve in his back last week and that could be a problem if it is not sorted out quickly. These things have a habit of reoccurring. Prediction: A step or two backwards looks likely. BMW SAUBER A logistical nightmare awaits for BMW. Moving to a factory that has not enough room for all the new staff to be recruited, means that 2006 will literally be a building year. Having said that they are taking over an existing team with reasonable credentials and who will only benefit from BMW’s cash injection. Their state of the art wind tunnel can now be used full time and it could be a good year for this transitional team. There is little in the way of expectations but winter testing has seen the car showing respectable pace and good reliability. The under rated Nick Heidfeld returns to his old team so it should take no time for him to settle back in. Villeneuve remains, but every silver lining has its cloud. Predictions: Racing for minor points but they could ‘do a Red Bull’ and be the surprise package for 2006. SCUDERIA TORO ROSSO The ashes of Minardi could rise to be a thorn in the side to some of the smaller teams now that it is basically a Red Bull ‘B’ team. In fact with the proper Red Bull team looking in such a mess it could embarrass the ‘A’ team in the short term. STR will be the only team using a restricted V10 engine which will be reliable and have much better performance at race starts and coming out of slow corners than the V8’s. The problem is that if they are too quick the FIA which force them to have the revs restricted further, so ultimately they will not be allowed to be too racey. Predictions: Might luck into a point at some stage if they don't get further handicaps. MIDLAND F1. A new chassis and a Toyota V8 should improve on the crate they had last year, but this team does not have much else going for it. The drivers are average and not coming last will be the target. Predictions: Rear of the field obscurity. SUPER AGURI. Starting the season with a tarted up 2002 Arrows and hoping to cobble together their own car in a few months time. A pointless exercise just to give Sato a job, but they will give Midland someone to beat. Prediction: They will attract a lot of criticism for getting in the way of other cars, being 5 seconds slower is dangerous. This lot would struggle in GP2. RECOMMENDED BETS: Constructors Championship. There is nothing on offer that could be described as massive value and tying up your money for a whole season can be a bit of bind, but there is a reasonable case for backing Renault to retain the Constructors Championship title. Reigning Champions do have a habit of winning multiple titles in F1. You have to go back to 1987 since a constructor failed to successfully defend their title. There is no reason or evidence to suggest Renault are about to suddenly become uncompetitive, they have a very strong package and two drivers that can win races and collect a good helping of points at every race. The competition looks like it should be intense, but I find it hard to see Honda moving from never having won a race to World Champions in 1 season. Ferrari have weakened their driver line up by replacing Barrichello with Massa. McLaren and Renault look the two teams most likely to win and preference is give to the more reliable Renault. 4 points Renault to win the 2006 Constructors Title @ 9/4 with Hills, Corals or Paddy Power. won 9 points There are some season match bets around but I see little point tying up money on the same type of bets we are likely to see on offer for the race this Sunday, but if you really wanted one, Ralf to score more points than Trulli at 10/11 looks likely. The multi lap qualifying should allow Ralf to qualify closer to Trulli and the German is generally a stronger racer than Trulli. He also is much happier with this years car. There is one interesting season bet worth a nibble in SportingOdds ‘Best of the Worst’ market. Luizzi and Speed top the market in their STR’s which may be a mistake. As I mentioned above, STR are using last years Cosworth V10 with a rev limit to make them comparable to a V8. This has caused a lot of disquiet amongst the other teams, who believe that the V10 restrictions are not harsh enough and STR will enjoy an advantage over the other tail-end teams. This was never the idea of letting a team run an old V10. It was allowed to help keep Minardi in business. The other teams were happy to let Minardi plod along at the back, knowing that even with a V10 they would not be a threat, but now Red Bull have bought the team and are putting in more money and resources. The car will be a clone of last years RB1 which scored 34 points, so with a reliable and torquey V10 (even with rev limits) it should be a reasonable car. There lies the problem for STR. Midland (and their engine supplier Toyota) are not going to be happy being beaten by a car that is not racing within the ‘spirit’ of the rules. Pressure will be brought to put on the FIA to make sure the STR is not beating other teams because of an engine advantage. If STR perform well they may well be given further rev handicaps to bring them behind Midland. In which case The Midland drivers in this group will look the value (we can ignore the Super Aguri drivers as they might as well be riding bikes). Monteiro has a year with the team already and drove with some credit last year. His 8th place in Spa was very mature, he finished in 18 of the 19 races and eclipsed the more acclaimed Narin Karthikeyan. He should be able to get the better of Albers with a performance similar to last year. 4 points Monteiro to win ‘Best of the Worst’ group @ 11/4 with SportingOdds. lost 4 points Of course this whole group could be a tie with none of the drivers scoring a point, in which case dead heat rules apply (effectively your stake divided by 6 time the odds). In which case it may be a good idea to have a saver on Ide @ 25/1 as he would show a return at 4.17/1. 1 point Ide to win ‘Best of the Worst’ group @ 25/1 with SportingOdds. lost 1 point.........aggggh! only Liuzzi scored 1 point Check back to this page over the next few days in case any more interesting bets come along. |
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