Canadian GP – Sunday Update. A pretty dire qualifying from our early bets point of view. The Toyota does seem to have some potential, but sadly it is Trulli in 4th place, while Ralf is way back in 14th place. The BMW’s were flying in Saturday free practice, second only to the Renaults, but in qualifying they flopped, with neither driver getting in the top 10. It is very hard to find any bets of any great interest today. Alonso looks nailed on but is now best priced 1.50 favourite. Fisichella is almost tempting at 8/1 as he is the likely winner if anything goes wrong for Alonso, but how often does that happen? 9/4 for a Renault 1-2 finish, sounds like a fair price but they have only managed it once in 2006 and not at all in 2005. With the high attrition rate usually experienced in Canada it makes match betting very risky but perhaps one form of betting on today’s race should be sells on the spreads or exchanges. Trulli looks a good choice to oppose as he is most likely light on fuel compared to the cars immediately behind him on the grid. In addition he is a great qualifier, but regarded as a bit ordinary in the actual races. The Toyota has not been the most reliable of cars and Trulli has never had much good fortune here with no less than 6 DNF’s. 3 points Massa to win Chasers group @ 5/2 with Ladbrokes. won 7.50 points Up against the two Hondas, Rosberg and Trulli, Massa, though giving up grid position, should be up to winning this group. Ferrari struggled for grip for a flying lap in qualifying, but are confident that they will be consistent in long runs. They have plenty of fuel on board and Massa has shown good steady performances with 5 top 5 finishes this season, his 3 bad results have been due to accidents in qualifying or the race, but that is always the risk in backing Massa, he can drop the ball on occasions. The Hondas are not close to Ferrari in terms of speed, especially in race trim and they will be working hard to stay in the top 8. Trulli should be falling back through the field with his light fuel load and it is Rosberg who poses the biggest threat. The Williams has a lot of new bits and an engine upgrade which explains the good qualifying, but I have not been impressed with the reliability of the whole package this season as they have had 5 mechanical induced retirements in the first 8 races. Like the Honda’s, the Williams is not as quick as the Ferrari. Massa has the car to allow him to win this group but he will need a good start, avoiding the potential trouble at the first bend, and not losing any places. Not a lot of action today, but that is the it goes sometimes. |
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